One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$22.59 our estimate vs market $48.26
Wall Street consensus: $62.98 (178.7% higher than our fair-value estimate)
114% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Alcoa Corporation
AA · NYQ · Basic Materials · Aluminum
Current price
$48.26
52-week range
$30.81 - $84.38
Market cap
$12.74B
Balance sheet
Watch
4.80x Stretched
Net debt $873.00M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 6.0% last year.
- Reward Returns 18.2% on equity, ahead of 16% of its peers.
- Risk Net debt grew 120.7% over 3 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.5% (peer median: 1.4%).
What this company does
Alcoa Corporation
Alcoa is a major producer of aluminum, the metal used to make things like cars, buildings, and soda cans. The company makes money by controlling its entire supply chain (the full process from raw material to finished product), starting with mining an ore called bauxite and turning it into aluminum. Because aluminum is a basic building block for many industries, Alcoa's financial health is often tied to global economic growth and the prices of raw materials.
How the company got here
Alcoa was founded in 1888 as the Pittsburgh Reduction Company after its founder, Charles Martin Hall, discovered a much cheaper way to make aluminum. For over a century, it grew into a giant that supplied aluminum for everything from airplanes to buildings. In 2016, the company split in two, creating the modern Alcoa Corporation. This new Alcoa focuses on the foundational steps of the aluminum-making process: mining the raw materials and producing pure metal.
What it actually does
Alcoa is a global company that operates at the very beginning of the aluminum supply chain (the entire journey from raw material to finished product). It digs a reddish-brown ore called bauxite out of the ground, refines it into a white powder called alumina, and then uses a powerful electrical process to turn that powder into aluminum metal. You won't find Alcoa's name on household products; instead, it sells its metal in large, basic forms to other industrial companies. Those companies then melt it down to make things like car parts, window frames, and beverage cans.
Alumina
This is the first major part of Alcoa's business, which starts with mining bauxite ore. The company then runs this ore through refineries that chemically process it into alumina, a fine white powder that is the key ingredient for making aluminum. Alcoa sells this powder to customers who make specialty chemical products and also supplies it to its own aluminum-making facilities. This segment is a huge part of the company, making up nearly half of its business.
Aluminum
This is the other main part of Alcoa's business and represents slightly more than half of its revenue (the total money it brings in from sales). This segment takes the alumina powder and uses massive amounts of electricity to smelt it into pure, liquid aluminum. The company then sells this metal as commodity-grade ingots (large, standardized blocks of metal) and other cast shapes to industrial customers. These customers buy Alcoa's metal to use in the transportation, construction, and packaging industries.
What management is betting on now
Alcoa's leadership is heavily focused on sustainability (operating in a way that minimizes environmental impact). They are investing in technology to create low-carbon aluminum and are part of a project aiming to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from the smelting process entirely. The company is also working to improve the efficiency and reliability of its mines and smelters to lower costs and generate more predictable cash flow (the cash left over after paying for business operations). A key part of this strategy involves simplifying its corporate structure and growing through strategic acquisitions to become a more competitive global producer of raw aluminum.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$-3.00M
FY2024 Q4
$246.00M
FY2025 Q1
$-18.00M
FY2025 Q2
$357.00M
FY2025 Q3
$-66.00M
FY2025 Q4
$294.00M
FY2026 Q1
$-298.00M
FY2026 Q2
$422.00M
Revenue
$3.97B
Net income
$407.00M
Diluted EPS
1.53
Operating cash flow
$608.00M
Free cash flow
$422.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.19B
Net income
$425.00M
Diluted EPS
1.60
Operating cash flow
$-179.00M
Free cash flow
$-298.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.45B
Net income
$213.00M
Diluted EPS
0.80
Operating cash flow
$537.00M
Free cash flow
$294.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.00B
Net income
$232.00M
Diluted EPS
0.88
Operating cash flow
$85.00M
Free cash flow
$-66.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.02B
Net income
$164.00M
Diluted EPS
0.62
Operating cash flow
$488.00M
Free cash flow
$357.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.37B
Net income
$548.00M
Diluted EPS
2.07
Operating cash flow
$75.00M
Free cash flow
$-18.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.49B
Net income
$202.00M
Diluted EPS
1.18
Operating cash flow
$415.00M
Free cash flow
$246.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.90B
Net income
$90.00M
Diluted EPS
0.38
Operating cash flow
$143.00M
Free cash flow
$-3.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $22.59 vs current price $48.26
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $62.98 (178.7% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $22.59 a share — about 53.2% below today's price of $48.26, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Watch
Net debt $873.0M. Interest coverage 4.8x.
Net debt
$873.00M
Interest coverage
4.80x
Alcoa Corporation's profit covers its interest bill about 4.8 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here.
Watch
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
AA
BASELINE
Alcoa Corporation
Total debt $2.22B Interest coverage 4.80x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $3.85B Interest coverage 15.54x +224% vs AA Carries about 3.2x more debt cushion than AA.
Total debt $480.00M Interest coverage 3.31x -31% vs AA Carries about 1.4x less debt cushion than AA.
Total debt $22.85B Interest coverage 8.45x +76% vs AA Carries about 1.8x more debt cushion than AA.
Total debt $1.07B Interest coverage 3.81x -21% vs AA Carries about 1.3x less debt cushion than AA.
Total debt $1.92B Interest coverage 4.47x -7% vs AA Has roughly the same debt cushion as AA.
What you should know
The case for and against AA
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 6.0% last year.
-
Returns 18.2% on equity, ahead of 16% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 120.7% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.5% (peer median: 1.4%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
10.03x
Forward P/E
8.32x
P/B
1.73x
P/S
0.94x
EV/EBITDA
5.92x
PEG ratio
8.36x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
19.8%
Operating margin
18.4%
Net margin
9.4%
ROE
18.2%
ROA
6.5%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.30x
Current ratio
1.53x
Quick ratio
0.80x
Total debt
$2.22B
Total cash
$1.35B
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$13.60B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
1.4%
EPS TTM
4.81
EPS 5Y CAGR
—
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$1.05B
Free CF TTM
$567.00M
FCF margin
4.2%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.8%
Payout ratio
8.3%
Last ex-div date
2026-08-11