One-glance verdict
Within fair range
$23.64 our estimate vs market $27.67
Wall Street consensus: $25.07 (6.1% higher than our fair-value estimate)
17% above our estimate
Fundamentals snapshot
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation
ADPT · NMS · Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Current price
$27.67
52-week range
$12.00 - $28.72
Market cap
$4.42B
Balance sheet
Distressed
-4.85x Concerning
Net debt $66.24M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
2 Risks
2 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 11.2% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -38.8% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 1.3% (peer median: 2.8%).
What this company does
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation
Adaptive Biotechnologies is a healthcare company that created a special technology to map a person's immune system to help find and treat diseases. It makes most of its money selling a very sensitive test called clonoSEQ, which helps doctors find and track tiny, leftover cancer cells in a patient's body during and after treatment. This is important because finding these remaining cells early can help doctors adjust a patient's care and improve their chances of staying cancer-free.
How the company got here
Adaptive Biotechnologies was founded in 2009 by brothers Chad and Harlan Robins, based on a breakthrough in understanding the human immune system. They developed a way to read the genetic code of immune cells, which can reveal what diseases a person has been exposed to. The company initially focused on providing its technology as a research tool for scientists under the brand immunoSEQ. A major turning point came in 2018 when the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) cleared their first diagnostic test, clonoSEQ, moving the company from a research focus to a clinical diagnostics company. The company went public with an initial public offering (IPO), a way for a private company to raise money by selling shares to the public, in 2019.
What it actually does
Adaptive Biotechnologies has developed a technology platform that maps the genetics of the immune system to diagnose and treat diseases. Think of your immune system as a vast library of cells that remember every illness you've ever had; Adaptive's technology can read the 'books' in that library. This allows them to create products for two main areas: clinical diagnostics (identifying and monitoring diseases) and drug discovery. Their main commercial product, clonoSEQ, is a test used to detect and monitor certain types of blood cancer.
Minimal Residual Disease (MRD)
This is the company's largest and profitable business area, making up the vast majority of its revenue. It's centered around their flagship product, clonoSEQ, which is a highly sensitive test for Minimal Residual Disease (MRD), the small number of cancer cells that can remain in the body after treatment and can cause a relapse. Doctors order this test for patients with certain blood cancers, like multiple myeloma and leukemia, to see how well a treatment is working and to watch for any signs of the cancer returning. The company makes money by billing healthcare providers and getting reimbursement (payment for services) from insurance companies, including Medicare.
Immune Medicine
This part of the company uses its immune mapping technology to help other pharmaceutical and biotech companies discover and develop new drugs. For example, they partner with drug makers to identify specific immune cells that are involved in diseases like cancer or autoimmune disorders. These partners pay Adaptive for access to its data and for specific research projects, which can include upfront payments and potential future payments based on the success of the new drugs. This is a smaller but important part of the business that leverages the same core technology in a different way.
What management is betting on now
The company's main focus is to make its clonoSEQ test a standard part of care for blood cancer patients by increasing its use and getting broader insurance coverage. They are also working to expand the use of clonoSEQ for monitoring more types of cancer and to make testing easier by using blood samples instead of bone marrow. Recently, the company announced plans to separate its two main businesses, MRD and Immune Medicine, to allow each to grow independently and unlock more value. This suggests they believe each business has a distinct path forward and will be more successful on its own.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$-27.41M
FY2024 Q4
$-12.57M
FY2025 Q1
$-29.74M
FY2025 Q2
$-13.09M
FY2025 Q3
$-7.54M
FY2025 Q4
$1.42M
FY2026 Q1
$-10.33M
FY2026 Q2
$-7.58M
Revenue
$71.55M
Net income
$-39.79M
Diluted EPS
-0.25
Operating cash flow
$-6.40M
Free cash flow
$-7.58M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$70.87M
Net income
$-20.03M
Diluted EPS
-0.13
Operating cash flow
$-9.54M
Free cash flow
$-10.33M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$71.68M
Net income
$-13.58M
Diluted EPS
-0.08
Operating cash flow
$2.06M
Free cash flow
$1.42M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$93.97M
Net income
$9.55M
Diluted EPS
0.06
Operating cash flow
$-7.13M
Free cash flow
$-7.54M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$58.88M
Net income
$-25.61M
Diluted EPS
-0.17
Operating cash flow
$-12.43M
Free cash flow
$-13.09M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$52.44M
Net income
$-29.85M
Diluted EPS
-0.20
Operating cash flow
$-28.48M
Free cash flow
$-29.74M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$47.46M
Net income
$-33.69M
Diluted EPS
-0.22
Operating cash flow
$-12.49M
Free cash flow
$-12.57M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$46.44M
Net income
$-32.07M
Diluted EPS
-0.22
Operating cash flow
$-27.07M
Free cash flow
$-27.41M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $23.64 vs current price $27.67
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $25.07 (6.1% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $23.64 a share — about 14.6% away from today's price of $27.67, so the stock currently looks fairly priced.
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $66.2M. Interest coverage -4.8x.
Net debt
$66.24M
Interest coverage
-4.85x
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation's profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 4 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
ADPT
BASELINE
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation
Total debt $410.50M Interest coverage -4.85x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $238.49M Interest coverage -76.16x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $1.70B Interest coverage -112.20x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $38.00M Interest coverage -429.55x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $90.89M Interest coverage -49.05x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
What you should know
The case for and against ADPT
2 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 11.2% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Return on equity was -38.8% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Insider ownership is only 1.3% (peer median: 2.8%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
-149.79x
P/B
30.81x
P/S
14.33x
EV/EBITDA
-203.12x
PEG ratio
—
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
46.9%
Operating margin
-22.0%
Net margin
-20.7%
ROE
-38.8%
ROA
-4.1%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
2.72x
Current ratio
4.79x
Quick ratio
4.51x
Total debt
$410.50M
Total cash
$344.26M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$308.08M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
15.7%
EPS TTM
-0.40
EPS 5Y CAGR
—
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$-21.01M
Free CF TTM
$-48.95M
FCF margin
-15.9%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
—