One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$5.86 our estimate vs market $0.64
Wall Street consensus: $3.92 (-33.2% lower than our fair-value estimate)
89% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.
AKBA · NCM · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Current price
$0.64
52-week range
$0.54 - $3.20
Market cap
$178.40M
Balance sheet
Distressed
0.97x Concerning
Net debt $43.64M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
1 Reward
2 Risks
1 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -109.4% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 2.0% (peer median: 3.5%).
What this company does
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.
Akebia Therapeutics develops medicines for people with kidney diseases, like anemia caused by kidney issues and high phosphorus levels. Their main income comes from selling these approved treatments, and this matters because it's how they fund research for new life-saving drugs.
How the company got here
Akebia Therapeutics was founded in 2007 with a mission to help patients suffering from kidney diseases. The company has since focused on developing innovative treatments, particularly for anemia associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD). A major milestone was the development and eventual approval of Vafseo, an oral medication for anemia in CKD patients. This journey involved extensive research, clinical trials, and navigating the complex regulatory landscape of drug approval. The company has also entered into various partnerships to help develop and commercialize its products globally.
What it actually does
Akebia Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company. This means it researches, develops, and aims to sell medicines. Specifically, Akebia focuses on creating treatments for people who have kidney diseases. Their work involves understanding the complex biological processes in the body related to kidney function and finding ways to improve patient outcomes through new drugs.
Vafseo
Vafseo is Akebia's main product, designed to treat anemia (a low red blood cell count) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). CKD can often lead to anemia because the kidneys don't produce enough of a hormone that signals the body to make red blood cells. Vafseo works by stimulating the body's natural response to produce more red blood cells, offering an oral treatment option. This segment represents a significant portion of Akebia's business focus and potential revenue.
Auryxia
Auryxia is another key product in Akebia's portfolio, used to manage two common issues in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Firstly, it helps control high levels of phosphorus in the blood, a problem that can arise when kidneys aren't filtering waste effectively. Secondly, it treats iron deficiency anemia, which is common in CKD patients, by providing essential iron. This product addresses critical mineral and blood-related complications faced by kidney patients.
Pipeline Candidates (AKB-9090 and AKB-10108)
Beyond its currently marketed products, Akebia is investing in the future through its research and development pipeline. This includes drugs like AKB-9090, which is being studied for conditions such as acute kidney injury after heart surgery and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Another candidate, AKB-10108, is being explored for treating retinopathy of prematurity, a serious eye condition in newborns. These represent potential future revenue streams and are in earlier stages of development, meaning they have not yet been approved for sale.
What management is betting on now
Akebia's management is focused on maximizing the commercial success of its approved products, Vafseo and Auryxia, particularly in the U.S. market. They are also strategically advancing their pipeline candidates through clinical trials, aiming to bring new treatments for kidney-related conditions and other serious diseases to patients. Building and maintaining partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies is also a key priority, as these collaborations can help fund development and expand the reach of their therapies globally.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$-6.70M
FY2024 Q4
$-4.47M
FY2025 Q1
$-13.61M
FY2025 Q2
$22.22M
FY2025 Q3
$28.03M
FY2025 Q4
$31.06M
FY2026 Q1
$-21.27M
FY2026 Q2
$2.45M
Revenue
$49.13M
Net income
$-8.91M
Diluted EPS
-0.03
Operating cash flow
$3.52M
Free cash flow
$2.45M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$53.54M
Net income
$-9.05M
Diluted EPS
-0.03
Operating cash flow
$-21.21M
Free cash flow
$-21.27M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$57.62M
Net income
$-12.24M
Diluted EPS
-0.05
Operating cash flow
$31.13M
Free cash flow
$31.06M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$58.77M
Net income
$540.00K
Diluted EPS
0.00
Operating cash flow
$28.11M
Free cash flow
$28.03M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$62.47M
Net income
$247.00K
Diluted EPS
0.00
Operating cash flow
$22.34M
Free cash flow
$22.22M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$57.34M
Net income
$6.11M
Diluted EPS
0.03
Operating cash flow
$-13.59M
Free cash flow
$-13.61M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$46.50M
Net income
$-22.80M
Diluted EPS
-0.10
Operating cash flow
$-4.47M
Free cash flow
$-4.47M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$37.43M
Net income
$-20.04M
Diluted EPS
-0.10
Operating cash flow
$-6.70M
Free cash flow
$-6.70M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $5.86 vs current price $0.64
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $3.92 (-33.2% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $5.86 a share — about 810.6% above today's price of $0.64, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $43.6M. Interest coverage 1.0x.
Net debt
$43.64M
Interest coverage
0.97x
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 1.0 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 5 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
AKBA
BASELINE
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.
Total debt $199.19M Interest coverage 0.97x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $728.00K Interest coverage -2,864.73x -100% vs AKBA This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with AKBA.
Total debt $37.99M Interest coverage -4.19x -100% vs AKBA This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with AKBA.
Total debt $3.62M Interest coverage -278.88x -100% vs AKBA This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with AKBA.
Total debt $80.94M Interest coverage -53.46x -100% vs AKBA This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with AKBA.
Total debt $351.00K Interest coverage -15.81x -100% vs AKBA This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with AKBA.
What you should know
The case for and against AKBA
1 Reward
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
Risks
-
Return on equity was -109.4% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Insider ownership is only 2.0% (peer median: 3.5%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
—
Forward P/E
-1.79x
P/B
7.00x
P/S
0.81x
EV/EBITDA
-51.69x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
81.4%
Operating margin
-5.5%
Net margin
-13.5%
ROE
-109.4%
ROA
-1.1%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
7.96x
Current ratio
1.43x
Quick ratio
1.30x
Total debt
$199.19M
Total cash
$155.55M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$219.06M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
2.5%
EPS TTM
-0.12
EPS 5Y CAGR
—
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$41.55M
Free CF TTM
$67.70M
FCF margin
30.9%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
—
Last ex-div date
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