One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$71.39 our estimate vs market $38.77
Wall Street consensus: $51.50 (-27.9% lower than our fair-value estimate)
46% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Astrana Health, Inc.
ASTH · NCM · Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Current price
$38.77
52-week range
$18.08 - $51.60
Market cap
$1.92B
Balance sheet
Stretched
1.57x Concerning
Net debt $578.62M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
2 Risks
2 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 20.8% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 9/10 years.
- Risk Stock trades 29.5% above its 5-year average P/E.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 9.1% to 3.5% over 3 years.
What this company does
Astrana Health, Inc.
Astrana Health acts like a project manager for a patient's healthcare, connecting them to a network of doctors and hospitals to coordinate their medical care. The company makes money primarily from health insurance plans, which pay Astrana to help keep their members healthy and manage treatment costs. This model is important because as the population ages and healthcare gets more complicated, there is a growing need for companies that can make the system more efficient and affordable.
How the company got here
Astrana Health began in the early 1990s, founded by physicians aiming to better support doctors in providing quality healthcare. A key moment was the 2017 merger of two entities, ApolloMed and Network Medical Management, which combined medical practices with the business infrastructure needed to manage them effectively. This set the stage for the company's growth, focusing on a model called value-based care, where doctors are rewarded for keeping patients healthy rather than just for the number of services they provide. To reflect its broader, national focus, the company changed its name from Apollo Medical Holdings to Astrana Health in February 2024.
What it actually does
Think of Astrana Health as a support system for doctors and their patients. It provides technology and services that help doctors' offices run more efficiently, especially for patients with ongoing health needs like seniors or those with chronic conditions. The company helps coordinate care between different doctors and hospitals, manages the business side of things for physician groups, and uses technology to track patient health and improve outcomes. This allows doctors to focus more on treating patients and helps insurance plans (like Medicare and Medicaid) manage costs by keeping people healthier.
Care Partners
This is Astrana's largest business segment, generating the majority of its revenue (the money a company makes from sales). In this part of the business, Astrana partners with independent doctors and physician groups, providing them with the tools and support to work within value-based care models. Essentially, health insurers pay Astrana a set fee per patient, and Astrana manages the doctors and care to keep that patient healthy for that fee. This segment handles things like contracts with insurance companies, care coordination, and quality management for a large network of providers.
Care Delivery
This segment is where Astrana gets directly involved in providing patient care through medical clinics and facilities that it owns or is closely aligned with. This includes primary care, specialty doctors, and urgent care clinics that you might visit. By owning the delivery of care, Astrana can have more direct control over the patient's experience and health journey, ensuring everything is well-coordinated. This hands-on approach helps them better manage health outcomes and costs within their network.
Care Enablement
This is a technology-focused part of the business that offers Astrana's platform and services to other healthcare organizations. Think of it as Astrana packaging its expertise and software to help other physician groups and health systems succeed in value-based care. This can include everything from data analytics to predict which patients might need more help, to administrative support for billing and scheduling. This segment represents a growing area for the company as it expands its reach nationally.
What management is betting on now
Management is focused on expanding its physician-centric (focused on the doctor's needs) and technology-powered approach to more markets across the country. A key part of this strategy is the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to make healthcare more efficient and proactive, helping to automate tasks and better predict patient needs. The company is also making strategic acquisitions, like buying other healthcare companies, to grow its network and capabilities. The ultimate bet is that by empowering doctors with better technology and support, Astrana can deliver higher quality care at a lower cost, which is a major goal for the entire U.S. healthcare system.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$31.69M
FY2024 Q4
$-13.48M
FY2025 Q1
$13.56M
FY2025 Q2
$89.48M
FY2025 Q3
$7.40M
FY2025 Q4
$-5.95M
FY2026 Q1
$64.06M
FY2026 Q2
$28.87M
Revenue
$972.52M
Net income
$19.74M
Diluted EPS
0.40
Operating cash flow
$32.75M
Free cash flow
$28.87M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$965.10M
Net income
$14.44M
Diluted EPS
0.29
Operating cash flow
$68.06M
Free cash flow
$64.06M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$950.52M
Net income
$6.00M
Diluted EPS
0.12
Operating cash flow
$-2.89M
Free cash flow
$-5.95M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$956.05M
Net income
$373.00K
Diluted EPS
0.01
Operating cash flow
$9.96M
Free cash flow
$7.40M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$654.81M
Net income
$9.42M
Diluted EPS
0.19
Operating cash flow
$90.90M
Free cash flow
$89.48M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$620.39M
Net income
$6.69M
Diluted EPS
0.14
Operating cash flow
$16.63M
Free cash flow
$13.56M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$665.21M
Net income
$-6.95M
Diluted EPS
-0.14
Operating cash flow
$-10.95M
Free cash flow
$-13.48M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$478.71M
Net income
$16.09M
Diluted EPS
0.33
Operating cash flow
$33.98M
Free cash flow
$31.69M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $71.39 vs current price $38.77
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $51.50 (-27.9% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $71.39 a share — about 84.2% above today's price of $38.77, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Stretched
Net debt $578.6M. Interest coverage 1.6x.
Net debt
$578.62M
Interest coverage
1.57x
Astrana Health, Inc. is healthier than 0 of 1 peers on balance-sheet leverage.
Stretched
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
ASTH
BASELINE
Astrana Health, Inc.
Total debt $979.41M Interest coverage 1.57x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
What you should know
The case for and against ASTH
2 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 20.8% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 9/10 years.
Risks
-
Stock trades 29.5% above its 5-year average P/E.
-
Operating margin compressed from 9.1% to 3.5% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
47.27x
Forward P/E
10.95x
P/B
2.30x
P/S
0.50x
EV/EBITDA
13.57x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
10.5%
Operating margin
3.5%
Net margin
1.1%
ROE
6.9%
ROA
3.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
1.64x
Current ratio
1.23x
Quick ratio
1.19x
Total debt
$979.41M
Total cash
$400.79M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$3.84B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
42.4%
EPS TTM
0.82
EPS 5Y CAGR
-24.8%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$107.87M
Free CF TTM
$104.49M
FCF margin
2.7%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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