One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$102.43 our estimate vs market $238.78
Wall Street consensus: $366.44 (257.7% higher than our fair-value estimate)
133% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Burlington Stores, Inc.
BURL · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Current price
$238.78
52-week range
$226.85 - $378.33
Market cap
$15.00B
Balance sheet
Distressed
11.89x Adequate
Net debt $5.20B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 5.6% last year.
- Reward Returns 41.4% on equity, ahead of 40% of its peers.
- Risk Net debt grew 24.6% over 3 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.6% (peer median: 2.7%).
What this company does
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Burlington Stores sells a wide variety of branded clothing and home goods at discounted prices. Their main source of money comes from selling these items in their physical stores and online. This is important because it shows how well they are attracting shoppers and moving their merchandise.
How the company got here
Burlington Stores started in 1972 as Burlington Coat Factory in New Jersey, founded by Henrietta and Abe Milstein. Their initial idea was simple: buy excess inventory of brand-name coats from manufacturers and sell them at much lower prices than department stores. This "off-price" model, which means selling branded goods at a discount, proved successful. Over the years, the company expanded beyond just coats to include a wider variety of apparel, footwear, and home goods. It went public in 1983, was acquired by Bain Capital in 2006, and then returned to the public market in 2013 as Burlington Stores, Inc. A significant shift occurred around 2020, with a strategic focus on smaller stores and a clearer value proposition for shoppers.
What it actually does
Burlington operates as an off-price retailer, meaning it sells branded merchandise at prices significantly lower than traditional retail stores. Think of it like a treasure hunt: you can find well-known brands, but the selection changes constantly, and you have to be willing to browse to find the best deals. They buy products directly from manufacturers and other retailers who have excess inventory, such as cancelled orders or items from past seasons. This allows them to offer a wide range of products, including clothing for women, men, and children, as well as accessories, home furnishings, and beauty items, all at a discount.
Apparel and Accessories
This is the largest part of Burlington's business, encompassing clothing for women, men, and children, as well as shoes and accessories like handbags and jewelry. They offer a wide variety of styles and brands, all at prices lower than you'd typically find in a department store. The key here is offering fashionable, brand-name items that appeal to a broad range of shoppers looking for value. This segment is the core of Burlington's offering and drives a significant portion of its overall sales.
Home Goods
Burlington also offers a selection of home décor items, including bedding, bath products, kitchenware, and decorative accents. Similar to their apparel offerings, these are branded items purchased at a discount. This segment appeals to customers looking to furnish or refresh their homes without spending a lot of money. It's a way for Burlington to capture more of a household's overall spending by offering a variety of products beyond just clothing.
Baby and Kids
This segment focuses specifically on merchandise for infants and children, including clothing, toys, and accessories. Parents and gift-givers can find a range of branded items at lower prices, making it a convenient one-stop shop for children's needs. This category is important because it caters to a consistent demand from families, offering them value on essential items and apparel for younger age groups.
What management is betting on now
Burlington's current strategy, often referred to as "Burlington 2.0," focuses on optimizing its store footprint and improving the shopping experience. This includes opening smaller, more efficient stores that are easier to manage and stock, and strategically acquiring leases from retailers that have closed. Management is also investing in better merchandising and supply chain tools to ensure they can consistently offer desirable brands at attractive prices. The goal is to make Burlington an even more compelling destination for value-conscious shoppers by improving store economics and the overall appeal of their product assortment.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2025 Q4
$-56.22M
FY2026 Q1
$189.84M
FY2026 Q2
$-438.61M
FY2026 Q3
$-101.00K
FY2026 Q4
$-109.62M
FY2027 Q2
$-227.26M
FY2027 Q3
$29.50M
Revenue
$3.00B
Net income
$184.30M
Diluted EPS
2.88
Operating cash flow
$273.16M
Free cash flow
$29.50M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.86B
Net income
$114.74M
Diluted EPS
1.79
Operating cash flow
$61.47M
Free cash flow
$-227.26M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.71B
Net income
$104.75M
Diluted EPS
1.63
Operating cash flow
$143.33M
Free cash flow
$-109.62M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.71B
Net income
$94.19M
Diluted EPS
1.47
Operating cash flow
$179.44M
Free cash flow
$-101.00K
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.50B
Net income
$100.83M
Diluted EPS
1.58
Operating cash flow
$-28.91M
Free cash flow
$-438.61M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.28B
Net income
$260.77M
Diluted EPS
4.03
Operating cash flow
$543.16M
Free cash flow
$189.84M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.53B
Net income
$90.60M
Diluted EPS
1.40
Operating cash flow
$110.41M
Free cash flow
$-56.22M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $102.43 vs current price $238.78
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $366.44 (257.7% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $102.43 a share — about 57.1% below today's price of $238.78, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $5.2B. Interest coverage 11.9x.
Net debt
$5.20B
Interest coverage
11.89x
Burlington Stores, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 11.9 times over.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
BURL
BASELINE
Burlington Stores, Inc.
Total debt $5.91B Interest coverage 11.89x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $4.74B Interest coverage 71.36x +500% vs BURL Carries about 6.0x more debt cushion than BURL.
Total debt $14.32B Interest coverage 97.00x +716% vs BURL Carries about 8.2x more debt cushion than BURL.
Total debt $456.84M Interest coverage 16.78x +41% vs BURL Carries about 1.4x more debt cushion than BURL.
Total debt $5.09B Interest coverage 9.11x -23% vs BURL Carries about 1.3x less debt cushion than BURL.
What you should know
The case for and against BURL
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 5.6% last year.
-
Returns 41.4% on equity, ahead of 40% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 24.6% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.6% (peer median: 2.7%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
21.45x
Forward P/E
17.50x
P/B
7.49x
P/S
1.23x
EV/EBITDA
14.77x
PEG ratio
0.92x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
44.1%
Operating margin
6.7%
Net margin
5.9%
ROE
41.4%
ROA
6.1%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
2.95x
Current ratio
1.17x
Quick ratio
0.38x
Total debt
$5.91B
Total cash
$703.69M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$12.22B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
5.5%
EPS TTM
11.13
EPS 5Y CAGR
39.7%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$1.42B
Free CF TTM
$171.59M
FCF margin
1.4%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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