One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$-6.09 our estimate vs market $29.71
Wall Street consensus: $32.22 (-629.0% lower than our fair-value estimate)
588% below our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.
BWIN · NMS · Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Current price
$29.71
52-week range
$15.88 - $32.59
Market cap
$2.88B
Balance sheet
Distressed
0.67x Concerning
Net debt $2.38B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
3 Risks
2 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 15.5% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 2.5% (peer median: 27.0%).
- Risk Net debt grew 21.5% over 3 years.
What this company does
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.
The Baldwin Insurance Group is a large insurance agency that helps both individuals and businesses find and purchase the right insurance policies. The company earns money from fees on new sales and from recurring revenue (predictable income from clients who renew their policies each year). This business model is attractive because consistent renewals can create a more stable and predictable stream of income than relying solely on finding new customers.
How the company got here
The Baldwin Insurance Group was founded in 2011 as Baldwin Risk Partners and grew rapidly by buying other insurance agencies. This strategy of acquiring multiple companies in the same industry is often called a 'roll-up'. A key turning point was in 2019 when it became a public company under the name BRP Group, allowing it to raise money to fuel more growth. In May 2024, it changed its name to The Baldwin Insurance Group to unite its many different brands under a single, recognizable name.
What it actually does
The Baldwin Insurance Group is an insurance broker, which means it acts as a matchmaker between customers and insurance companies. Instead of being an insurer that pays claims, Baldwin's experts help individuals and businesses find the right insurance coverage from a wide variety of actual insurance carriers. The company makes money primarily from commissions (a fee paid by the insurance carrier as a percentage of the premium) and fees for its advisory services. It serves over two million clients, from families buying home insurance to large corporations needing complex risk management (the process of identifying and planning for potential financial losses).
Insurance Advisory Solutions
This is the company's main advice-giving division for larger clients. It provides commercial risk management and employee benefits (like health insurance and retirement plans) for medium and large businesses. This segment also offers private risk management for high-net-worth individuals (people with a lot of money to invest) and their families, helping them protect their assets. These advisors work closely with clients to tailor insurance plans that fit their specific, often complex, needs.
Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions
This part of the business is like a workshop for creating specialized insurance products. It includes a managing general agent (MGA) platform, which has been given authority by large insurance carriers to underwrite (evaluate and take on the risk for) and sell unique insurance policies for specific needs. This segment also includes reinsurance brokerage (helping insurance companies buy their own insurance to protect themselves from very large claims). While the brands in this division often operate independently, they provide the broader company with exclusive and tech-focused insurance options.
Mainstreet Insurance Solutions
This segment focuses on providing insurance for individuals and small businesses within their local communities. This is where an everyday person would go for personal insurance, such as policies for their home and car, or for life and health insurance. It also serves small businesses with their commercial insurance needs and helps seniors and other eligible individuals find and enroll in government programs like Medicare.
What management is betting on now
The company's main strategy is to grow both organically (finding new clients and selling more to current ones) and through continued acquisitions of other insurance firms. A major priority is integrating all its acquired businesses under the single 'The Baldwin Group' brand to create a more unified and efficient operation. Management believes this will strengthen client recognition and make it easier to cross-sell services across its different divisions. The company is also focused on investing in technology to improve its services and how it distributes insurance products.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$-8.09M
FY2024 Q4
$4.29M
FY2025 Q1
$-72.92M
FY2025 Q2
$-28.10M
FY2025 Q3
$32.15M
FY2025 Q4
$-84.00K
FY2026 Q1
$-18.74M
FY2026 Q2
$30.38M
Revenue
$492.94M
Net income
$-38.99M
Diluted EPS
-0.42
Operating cash flow
$45.56M
Free cash flow
$30.38M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$532.24M
Net income
$2.34M
Diluted EPS
0.02
Operating cash flow
$-6.07M
Free cash flow
$-18.74M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$347.28M
Net income
$-25.86M
Diluted EPS
-0.38
Operating cash flow
$10.27M
Free cash flow
$-84.00K
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$365.39M
Net income
$-18.73M
Diluted EPS
-0.27
Operating cash flow
$41.02M
Free cash flow
$32.15M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$378.81M
Net income
$-3.16M
Diluted EPS
-0.05
Operating cash flow
$-16.72M
Free cash flow
$-28.10M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$413.40M
Net income
$13.94M
Diluted EPS
0.20
Operating cash flow
$-63.98M
Free cash flow
$-72.92M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$329.89M
Net income
$-20.16M
Diluted EPS
-0.31
Operating cash flow
$16.44M
Free cash flow
$4.29M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$338.94M
Net income
$-8.38M
Diluted EPS
-0.13
Operating cash flow
$2.11M
Free cash flow
$-8.09M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $-6.09 vs current price $29.71
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $32.22 (-629.0% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $-6.09 a share — about 120.5% below today's price of $29.71, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $2.4B. Interest coverage 0.7x.
Net debt
$2.38B
Interest coverage
0.67x
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.7 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
BWIN
BASELINE
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.
Total debt $2.57B Interest coverage 0.67x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $120.10M Interest coverage -18.16x -100% vs BWIN This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with BWIN.
Total debt $372.84M Interest coverage 3.14x +371% vs BWIN Carries about 4.7x more debt cushion than BWIN.
Total debt $3.81B Interest coverage 2.32x +248% vs BWIN Carries about 3.5x more debt cushion than BWIN.
What you should know
The case for and against BWIN
2 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 15.5% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
Risks
-
Insider ownership is only 2.5% (peer median: 27.0%).
-
Net debt grew 21.5% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -10.7% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
11.98x
P/B
3.24x
P/S
1.66x
EV/EBITDA
49.70x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
31.3%
Operating margin
2.0%
Net margin
-4.7%
ROE
-10.7%
ROA
-0.9%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
1.80x
Current ratio
1.07x
Quick ratio
0.81x
Total debt
$2.57B
Total cash
$184.50M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$1.74B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
27.6%
EPS TTM
-1.05
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$90.77M
Free CF TTM
$-68.94M
FCF margin
-4.0%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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