One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$17.85 our estimate vs market $85.86
Wall Street consensus: $93.50 (423.7% higher than our fair-value estimate)
381% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
CareDx, Inc.
CDNA · NGM · Healthcare · Diagnostics & Research
Current price
$85.86
52-week range
$14.42 - $90.87
Market cap
$4.51B
Balance sheet
Healthy
-2.73x Concerning
Net cash $221.48M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 31.0% last year.
- Reward Returns 33.0% on equity, ahead of 83% of its peers.
- Risk Forward P/E (54.4x) is higher than trailing (36.2x) - earnings are expected to drop.
- Risk Stock trades 57.4% above its 5-year average P/E.
What this company does
CareDx, Inc.
CareDx helps doctors and patients manage organ transplants by providing specialized tests that measure how well a transplanted organ is doing and identify potential problems. Their main money comes from selling these diagnostic tests, which are important because they help avoid costly complications and improve the chances of a successful transplant for patients.
How the company got here
CareDx, originally founded as XDx, Inc. in 1998, has evolved to focus specifically on the needs of transplant patients. The company officially changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014, signaling a clear strategic shift. This rebranding and focus aimed to consolidate its efforts in developing advanced diagnostic and monitoring solutions for organ transplantation, moving from its earlier iterations to become a specialized player in this niche healthcare market.
What it actually does
CareDx develops and provides specialized testing and software solutions designed to help doctors manage patients who have received organ transplants. Their main goal is to improve the health outcomes for these patients by offering tools that can monitor the health of the transplanted organ and detect potential problems early. Think of it like a specialized check-up service for a transplanted organ, using advanced technology to keep a close eye on its performance and the patient's overall recovery.
Transplant Patient Monitoring Solutions
This is the core of CareDx's business, focusing on tests that help doctors monitor organ transplant recipients. Products like AlloSure Kidney and AlloMap Heart use advanced techniques to detect early signs of organ rejection or damage. These tests analyze specific markers in the patient's blood, providing crucial information to guide treatment decisions and prevent serious complications. This segment is the largest part of CareDx's revenue, as it addresses a critical ongoing need for transplant patients.
Transplant Diagnostics
This segment provides tools that help in the initial stages of transplantation and ongoing management. Solutions like QTYPE and Olerup SSP are used for Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) typing, which is essential for matching donors and recipients to minimize rejection risks. Other offerings, such as HistoMap Kidney, analyze biopsy tissue to identify specific types of organ rejection. This area supports both the pre-transplant matching process and the post-transplant diagnostic needs.
Healthcare Management Software
CareDx also offers software solutions aimed at streamlining the management of transplant patients and related healthcare processes. Products like Ottr and XynQAPI help healthcare providers manage patient data, coordinate care, and improve operational efficiency within transplant programs. This segment supports the broader ecosystem of transplant care by providing digital tools that enhance communication and data management for clinics and hospitals.
What management is betting on now
CareDx is focused on expanding its suite of diagnostic and monitoring tools for transplant patients, aiming to cover more types of transplants and stages of patient care. They are also investing in their software solutions to better integrate with healthcare systems and provide more comprehensive patient management. The company's strategy involves leveraging its expertise in transplant medicine to develop innovative solutions that improve patient outcomes and solidify its position as a leader in this specialized field.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2025 Q1
$-28.21M
FY2025 Q2
$8.89M
FY2025 Q3
$36.05M
FY2026 Q1
$514.00K
FY2026 Q2
$28.75M
FY2026 Q3
$11.10M
Revenue
$139.36M
Net income
$19.29M
Diluted EPS
0.35
Operating cash flow
$12.72M
Free cash flow
$11.10M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$131.95M
Net income
$110.64M
Diluted EPS
2.07
Operating cash flow
$30.60M
Free cash flow
$28.75M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$117.70M
Net income
$2.81M
Diluted EPS
0.05
Operating cash flow
$4.33M
Free cash flow
$514.00K
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$108.39M
Net income
$-4.11M
Diluted EPS
-0.08
Operating cash flow
$21.36M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$100.06M
Net income
$1.68M
Diluted EPS
0.03
Operating cash flow
$37.36M
Free cash flow
$36.05M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$86.68M
Net income
$-8.57M
Diluted EPS
-0.16
Operating cash flow
$9.89M
Free cash flow
$8.89M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$84.69M
Net income
$-10.35M
Diluted EPS
-0.19
Operating cash flow
$-26.58M
Free cash flow
$-28.21M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$86.58M
Net income
$78.01M
Diluted EPS
1.42
Operating cash flow
$21.89M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $17.85 vs current price $85.86
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $93.50 (423.7% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $17.85 a share — about 79.2% below today's price of $85.86, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $221.5M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage -2.7x.
Net debt
$-221.48M
Interest coverage
-2.73x
CareDx, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 4 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
CDNA
BASELINE
CareDx, Inc.
Total debt $29.00M Interest coverage -2.73x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $449.14M Interest coverage -23.48x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $40.11M Interest coverage 78,282.00x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while CDNA does not.
Total debt $38.00M Interest coverage -429.55x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $36.65M Interest coverage -497.79x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $9.60M Interest coverage -1,214.61x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
What you should know
The case for and against CDNA
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 31.0% last year.
-
Returns 33.0% on equity, ahead of 83% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Forward P/E (54.4x) is higher than trailing (36.2x) - earnings are expected to drop.
-
Stock trades 57.4% above its 5-year average P/E.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
36.23x
Forward P/E
54.40x
P/B
9.64x
P/S
9.07x
EV/EBITDA
167.42x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
71.0%
Operating margin
8.5%
Net margin
25.9%
ROE
33.0%
ROA
0.9%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.06x
Current ratio
2.31x
Quick ratio
2.15x
Total debt
$29.00M
Total cash
$250.48M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$497.40M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
6.4%
EPS TTM
2.37
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$69.02M
Free CF TTM
$36.25M
FCF margin
7.3%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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