One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$10.95 our estimate vs market $21.28
Wall Street consensus: $16.00 (46.1% higher than our fair-value estimate)
94% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Centerra Gold Inc.
CGAU · NYQ · Basic Materials · Gold
Current price
$21.28
52-week range
$11.20 - $24.52
Market cap
$4.12B
Balance sheet
Healthy
217.45x Strong cushion
Net cash $355.08M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 14.0% last year.
- Reward Returns 20.8% on equity, ahead of 40% of its peers.
- Risk Forward P/E (10.5x) is higher than trailing (9.9x) - earnings are expected to drop.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.2% (peer median: 0.5%).
What this company does
Centerra Gold Inc.
Centerra Gold Inc. mines and develops gold and copper properties in places like Canada and Turkey, with a smaller business focused on molybdenum, a metal used in things like steel alloys. This means their main income comes from digging valuable metals out of the ground and selling them, and how much they can dig and at what cost directly impacts their profits.
How the company got here
Centerra Gold Inc. was established in 2002 and has since grown into a significant player in the gold and copper mining industry. The company's journey has involved acquiring and developing key mining assets across different regions. A major turning point was the development and operation of its flagship Mount Milligan mine in Canada, which has become a cornerstone of its production. Centerra has also navigated complex international operations, including its Öksüt mine in Turkey, demonstrating its ability to manage diverse geographical and regulatory environments. The company's strategic focus has been on expanding its resource base and optimizing its existing operations to ensure long-term value creation for its shareholders.
What it actually does
Centerra Gold Inc. is primarily involved in mining precious metals, specifically gold and copper, as well as molybdenum. Think of them as a company that digs valuable minerals out of the ground. These minerals are then processed and sold to other companies, often manufacturers or refiners, who use them to create a wide range of products. Gold is commonly used in jewelry and as an investment, while copper is essential for electrical wiring and industrial applications. Molybdenum is used to strengthen steel and in various industrial processes. Centerra's business is all about finding, extracting, and selling these raw materials.
Gold and Copper Operations
This is Centerra's largest business segment, focused on extracting gold and copper from its mines. The Mount Milligan mine in British Columbia, Canada, is a prime example, producing both gold and copper. Another significant operation is the Öksüt gold mine in Turkey. These mines involve large-scale extraction processes, where valuable minerals are separated from rock. The revenue from this segment comes from selling the doré bars (a semi-pure alloy of gold and silver) and copper concentrates produced. This segment represents the core of Centerra's business, contributing the majority of its overall production and revenue.
Molybdenum Business
Centerra also operates a distinct molybdenum business unit. Molybdenum is a metal often used to strengthen steel and in other industrial applications. This segment includes a processing facility and primary molybdenum properties. The revenue generated here comes from selling the processed molybdenum. While smaller than the gold and copper operations, this business line provides diversification to Centerra's overall revenue streams and leverages specific expertise in molybdenum extraction and processing.
What management is betting on now
Centerra's management is focused on maximizing the value of its existing assets while exploring opportunities for growth. A key priority is the efficient operation and potential expansion of its Mount Milligan mine, aiming to increase gold and copper production. The company is also focused on advancing its development projects, such as the Kemess project, which could add significant future production. Furthermore, Centerra is committed to responsible mining practices and maintaining strong relationships with local communities and governments in the regions where it operates. This strategic approach aims to ensure sustainable growth and profitability in the long term.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $10.95 vs current price $21.28
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $16.00 (46.1% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $10.95 a share — about 48.6% below today's price of $21.28, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $355.1M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage 217.4x.
Net debt
$-355.08M
Interest coverage
217.45x
Centerra Gold Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 217.4 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
CGAU
BASELINE
Centerra Gold Inc.
Total debt $43.04M Interest coverage 217.45x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $2.00B Interest coverage 26.70x -88% vs CGAU Carries about 8.1x less debt cushion than CGAU.
Total debt $456.09M Interest coverage 37.25x -83% vs CGAU Carries about 5.8x less debt cushion than CGAU.
Total debt $2.37M Interest coverage 32.21x -85% vs CGAU Carries about 6.8x less debt cushion than CGAU.
Total debt $539.80M Interest coverage 10.58x -95% vs CGAU Carries about 20.6x less debt cushion than CGAU.
What you should know
The case for and against CGAU
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 14.0% last year.
-
Returns 20.8% on equity, ahead of 40% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 3/10 years.
Risks
-
Forward P/E (10.5x) is higher than trailing (9.9x) - earnings are expected to drop.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.2% (peer median: 0.5%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
9.85x
Forward P/E
10.52x
P/B
1.86x
P/S
2.25x
EV/EBITDA
4.18x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
43.7%
Operating margin
22.2%
Net margin
23.7%
ROE
20.8%
ROA
16.3%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.02x
Current ratio
2.07x
Quick ratio
1.21x
Total debt
$43.04M
Total cash
$398.12M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$1.83B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
17.7%
EPS TTM
2.16
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$348.63M
Free CF TTM
$51.92M
FCF margin
2.8%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.9%
Payout ratio
9.3%
Last ex-div date
2026-11-19