One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$9.30 our estimate vs market $22.95
Wall Street consensus: $17.50 (88.3% higher than our fair-value estimate)
147% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Centerra Gold Inc.
CGAU · NYQ · Basic Materials · Gold
Current price
$22.95
52-week range
$9.72 - $24.52
Market cap
$4.49B
Balance sheet
Healthy
217.45x Strong cushion
Net cash $407.34M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 14.0% last year.
- Reward Returns 32.9% on equity, ahead of 80% of its peers.
- Risk Forward P/E (12.1x) is higher than trailing (7.3x) - earnings are expected to drop.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.2% (peer median: 0.6%).
What this company does
Centerra Gold Inc.
Centerra Gold is a mining company that makes its money by digging up and selling gold and copper from its mines in North America and Turkey. Because its income comes from selling these raw metals, the company's financial health is closely tied to the fluctuating global prices of gold and copper and its ability to keep mining costs down.
How the company got here
Centerra Gold was formed in 2002 when a Canadian uranium mining company called Cameco decided to spin off its gold mining interests into a separate entity. A key early asset was the Kumtor Gold Mine in the Kyrgyz Republic, which the company operated for many years. Over time, Centerra expanded by acquiring other companies and properties, including a significant acquisition in 2016 that brought in the Mount Milligan mine in Canada. The company has since shifted its focus to North America and Turkey, having exited its operations in the Kyrgyz Republic and Mongolia.
What it actually does
Centerra Gold is a mining company that finds, develops, and operates properties to extract valuable metals from the ground. Think of them as a business that digs up rock, processes it, and sells the gold, copper, and molybdenum that are inside. These metals are then sold to be used in a wide range of products, from jewelry and electronics to high-strength steel for industrial applications. The company's main operations are large open-pit mines, which are like giant, terraced bowls dug into the earth to access the ore (metal-bearing rock).
Mount Milligan Mine
This is a large open-pit mine in British Columbia, Canada, and it's a cornerstone of the company's operations. It's a two-for-one deal, producing both gold and copper from the same ore. The mine digs up rock, crushes it, and then uses a process to create a concentrate (a condensed form of the valuable metals) that is shipped to other facilities for final processing. This single mine is Centerra's largest source of revenue.
Öksüt Mine
Located in Turkey, this is another major gold-producing asset for the company. Unlike Mount Milligan, this mine primarily produces gold. It operates as an open-pit mine and uses a method called heap leaching, where a solution is used to separate the gold from the crushed ore, ultimately producing gold bars called doré. This operation represents a significant portion of the company's gold production and is a key contributor to its overall business.
Molybdenum Business Unit
This is a distinct part of Centerra's business that focuses on the metal molybdenum, which is used to make steel stronger and more resistant to corrosion. This segment includes the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho and a processing facility in Pennsylvania. While the mine has been inactive, the company is studying its restart to supply molybdenum concentrate to the processing facility, which currently refines concentrate purchased from third parties. This business provides Centerra with diversification (a way to make money from more than just one or two things).
What management is betting on now
The company's current strategy is focused on growing its business primarily in North America. They are advancing a pipeline of what they call 'organic growth' opportunities, which means developing projects they already own, like the Goldfield project in Nevada and the Kemess project in British Columbia. The goal is to fund these new developments using the cash generated from their existing mines, rather than taking on a lot of debt. By extending the life of their current mines and bringing new ones online, they aim to create long-term value and steady production.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $9.30 vs current price $22.95
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $17.50 (88.3% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $9.30 a share — about 59.5% below today's price of $22.95, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $407.3M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage 217.4x.
Net debt
$-407.34M
Interest coverage
217.45x
Centerra Gold Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 217.4 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
CGAU
BASELINE
Centerra Gold Inc.
Total debt $45.76M Interest coverage 217.45x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $1.76B Interest coverage 26.70x -88% vs CGAU Carries about 8.1x less debt cushion than CGAU.
Total debt $456.09M Interest coverage 37.25x -83% vs CGAU Carries about 5.8x less debt cushion than CGAU.
Total debt $2.30M Interest coverage 32.21x -85% vs CGAU Carries about 6.8x less debt cushion than CGAU.
Total debt $539.80M Interest coverage 10.58x -95% vs CGAU Carries about 20.6x less debt cushion than CGAU.
What you should know
The case for and against CGAU
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 14.0% last year.
-
Returns 32.9% on equity, ahead of 80% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 3/10 years.
Risks
-
Forward P/E (12.1x) is higher than trailing (7.3x) - earnings are expected to drop.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.2% (peer median: 0.6%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
7.33x
Forward P/E
12.07x
P/B
2.08x
P/S
2.60x
EV/EBITDA
4.75x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
44.3%
Operating margin
27.2%
Net margin
36.9%
ROE
32.9%
ROA
16.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.02x
Current ratio
2.42x
Quick ratio
1.45x
Total debt
$45.76M
Total cash
$453.10M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$1.72B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
17.7%
EPS TTM
3.13
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$348.63M
Free CF TTM
$51.92M
FCF margin
3.0%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.9%
Payout ratio
6.5%
Last ex-div date
2026-08-19