One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$-75.91 our estimate vs market $46.60
Wall Street consensus: $62.33 (-182.1% lower than our fair-value estimate)
161% below our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Traeger, Inc.
COOK · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
Current price
$46.60
52-week range
$20.91 - $86.59
Market cap
$130.40M
Balance sheet
Distressed
-0.04x Concerning
Net debt $364.66M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
1 Reward
1 Risk
1 rewards · 1 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 5/10 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -51.0% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
Traeger, Inc.
Traeger sells high-tech wood pellet grills that can be controlled from a smartphone, which make up the majority of its sales. The company also sells a full suite of related products like wood pellets, sauces, and accessories, creating an ecosystem (a network of products designed to work together) that encourages repeat business. This strategy is important because it aims to turn a one-time grill buyer into a loyal, long-term customer who continues to purchase supplies.
How the company got here
Traeger was started in Oregon in the 1980s by Joe Traeger, who invented and patented the first wood-pellet grill after a frustrating experience with his gas grill. [11] For two decades, his company was the only one that could sell this new type of grill, and it grew as a family business. [11] In 2014, the company was bought by a new leadership team that focused on transforming it from just a grill maker into a popular lifestyle brand with a passionate community. [10] The company went public with an IPO (Initial Public Offering, the first time a company sells its stock to the public) in 2021. [3]
What it actually does
Traeger makes outdoor barbecue grills that use small, compressed wood pellets for fuel instead of charcoal or gas. [12] This gives food a distinct wood-fired flavor and allows for a wide range of cooking methods, from slow smoking to high-temperature searing. [14, 15] Many of their newer grills are smart devices you can control from a phone app, which lets you set and monitor cooking temperatures remotely. [15] Beyond the grills themselves, the company sells the essential wood pellets, along with its own brands of barbecue sauces, spice rubs, and various grilling accessories like smart thermometers. [12, 15]
Grills
This is Traeger's main business, making up a little more than half of its total sales. [5, 7] The company sells a variety of wood pellet grills at different price points, from portable models to large, high-tech ones, as well as newer flat top griddles. [4, 16] Customers for this segment are home cooks who buy the grills from retailers like The Home Depot and Ace Hardware, or directly from Traeger. [3] The goal is to sell a premium grill that serves as the foundation for future purchases.
Consumables
This part of the business sells the products that customers need to use again and again, representing about a quarter of the company's revenue (the total money it brings in). [5, 7] The main product here is bags of wood pellets, which are required to fuel the grills and come in different wood types like hickory and apple to create various flavors. [8] This segment also includes Traeger-branded sauces and spice rubs. [2] This creates a recurring revenue stream (money that comes in repeatedly from the same customers) because grill owners must keep buying pellets to cook. [3]
Accessories
This segment, which makes up about a quarter of Traeger's revenue, includes everything else a cook might want for their grill. [5, 7] This ranges from practical items like grill covers, cleaning tools, and replacement parts to high-tech gadgets like the MEATER, a wireless meat thermometer that sends temperature updates to a smartphone. [8, 12] People also buy apparel like hats and t-shirts with the Traeger logo. [12] These products help customers customize their setup and deepen their relationship with the brand.
What management is betting on now
The company is currently focused on a major cost-cutting and efficiency plan it calls "Project Gravity." [6] This involves simplifying the business by reducing staff, closing some manufacturing facilities, and exiting less profitable sales channels (the ways it sells its products), such as in-person roadshows at Costco and most sales from its own website. [5, 9] The goal is to improve profitability (the ability to make a profit after all costs are paid) and generate more free cash flow (cash left after paying for operations and large purchases). [18] Management is also betting on continued innovation, releasing new products to attract more households and expanding the brand into a complete "outdoor cooking ecosystem" where customers are continually engaged. [7]
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$12.85M
FY2024 Q4
$5.51M
FY2025 Q1
$-22.66M
FY2025 Q2
$15.67M
FY2025 Q3
$6.39M
FY2025 Q4
$14.19M
FY2026 Q1
$14.50M
FY2026 Q2
$26.48M
Revenue
$120.16M
Net income
$-8.56M
Diluted EPS
-3.12
Operating cash flow
$27.11M
Free cash flow
$26.48M
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Sources
Revenue
$94.07M
Net income
$2.93M
Diluted EPS
1.08
Operating cash flow
$17.90M
Free cash flow
$14.50M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$145.36M
Net income
$-17.20M
Diluted EPS
-0.13
Operating cash flow
$15.51M
Free cash flow
$14.19M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$125.40M
Net income
$-89.82M
Diluted EPS
-0.67
Operating cash flow
$7.55M
Free cash flow
$6.39M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$145.48M
Net income
$-7.38M
Diluted EPS
-0.06
Operating cash flow
$18.29M
Free cash flow
$15.67M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$143.28M
Net income
$-778.00K
Diluted EPS
-0.01
Operating cash flow
$-20.84M
Free cash flow
$-22.66M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$168.64M
Net income
$-6.96M
Diluted EPS
-0.06
Operating cash flow
$7.47M
Free cash flow
$5.51M
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Sources
Revenue
$122.05M
Net income
$-19.79M
Diluted EPS
-0.15
Operating cash flow
$15.15M
Free cash flow
$12.85M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $-75.91 vs current price $46.60
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $62.33 (-182.1% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $-75.91 a share — about 262.9% below today's price of $46.60, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $364.7M. Interest coverage -0.0x.
Net debt
$364.66M
Interest coverage
-0.04x
Traeger, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 4 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
COOK
BASELINE
Traeger, Inc.
Total debt $424.35M Interest coverage -0.04x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $265.60M Interest coverage -0.75x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $32.01M Interest coverage -7.32x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $51.63M Interest coverage -72.28x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $253.03M Interest coverage 482.07x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while COOK does not.
Total debt $17.15M Interest coverage -3.40x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
What you should know
The case for and against COOK
1 Reward
1 Risk
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 5/10 years.
Risks
-
Return on equity was -51.0% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
108.79x
P/B
0.78x
P/S
0.27x
EV/EBITDA
8.84x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
40.5%
Operating margin
-0.2%
Net margin
-23.2%
ROE
-51.0%
ROA
0.3%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
2.54x
Current ratio
3.49x
Quick ratio
2.11x
Total debt
$424.35M
Total cash
$59.69M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$484.98M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-8.1%
EPS TTM
-42.45
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$68.07M
Free CF TTM
$13.59M
FCF margin
2.8%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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