One-glance verdict
Within fair range
$4.78 our estimate vs market $6.35
33% above our estimate
Fundamentals snapshot
Greenfire Resources Ltd.
GFR · NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Current price
$6.35
52-week range
$4.15 - $7.16
Market cap
$1.53B
Balance sheet
Stretched
1.42x Concerning
Net debt $20.43M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
1 Reward
2 Risks
1 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -3.6% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.1% (peer median: 2.9%).
What this company does
Greenfire Resources Ltd.
Greenfire Resources Ltd. is a company that explores for and produces oil and natural gas from a specific area in Canada called the Athabasca oil sands. The money they make primarily comes from selling this oil and gas, which is important because it shows how much they are producing and their ability to turn those resources into revenue.
How the company got here
Greenfire Resources Ltd. is a Canadian company focused on extracting oil and natural gas. It operates primarily in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta, a vast area known for its significant oil reserves. The company's main operational hub is its Hangingstone Facilities, which include both the Expansion Asset and the Demo Asset. These facilities are located south of Fort McMurray, Alberta, a key center for Canada's energy industry. Greenfire was established to develop and produce these valuable resources, contributing to the country's energy supply.
What it actually does
Greenfire Resources Ltd. is in the business of finding and producing oil and natural gas. Think of it like a farmer who cultivates land to grow crops, but instead of crops, Greenfire extracts energy resources from deep within the earth. The company explores for potential oil and gas deposits, develops the necessary infrastructure to access them, and then operates these facilities to bring the resources to market. Its primary focus is on the oil sands, a type of petroleum deposit found in sandy soil.
Oil & Gas E&P
Greenfire's core business is Exploration and Production (E&P) in the oil and gas sector. This means the company is involved in the entire process from searching for oil and gas reserves (exploration) to drilling wells and extracting these resources (production). The Athabasca oil sands, where Greenfire operates, contain heavy crude oil that requires specific methods to extract. The company's principal asset, the Hangingstone Facilities, are designed for this purpose, aiming to efficiently recover oil from these unique geological formations. The revenue generated comes from selling the extracted crude oil.
What management is betting on now
Greenfire Resources Ltd. is focused on the efficient development and operation of its oil sands assets. The company's strategy revolves around maximizing the recovery of oil from its Hangingstone Facilities, including the Expansion and Demo Assets. This involves optimizing extraction processes and managing operational costs to ensure profitability. By concentrating on its core properties in Alberta, Greenfire aims to be a reliable producer of oil and gas, contributing to the energy supply chain. The company's success hinges on its ability to effectively manage these complex operations and adapt to market conditions.
Price history
How the share price has moved
—
Loading price history…
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $4.78 vs current price $6.35
Our most-likely fair value is $4.78 a share — about 24.7% away from today's price of $6.35, so the stock currently looks fairly priced.
Is it drowning in debt?
Stretched
Net debt $20.4M. Interest coverage 1.4x.
Net debt
$20.43M
Interest coverage
1.42x
Greenfire Resources Ltd.'s profit covers its interest bill about 1.4 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Stretched
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
GFR
BASELINE
Greenfire Resources Ltd.
Total debt $22.51M Interest coverage 1.42x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $1.34B Interest coverage -0.65x -100% vs GFR This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with GFR.
Total debt $922.41M Interest coverage 10.23x +619% vs GFR Carries about 7.2x more debt cushion than GFR.
Total debt $2.72B Interest coverage 3.49x +145% vs GFR Carries about 2.5x more debt cushion than GFR.
Total debt $1.26B Interest coverage -0.81x -100% vs GFR This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with GFR.
Total debt $954.82M Interest coverage 1.26x -11% vs GFR Has roughly the same debt cushion as GFR.
What you should know
The case for and against GFR
1 Reward
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
Risks
-
Return on equity was -3.6% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.1% (peer median: 2.9%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
—
Forward P/E
8.39x
P/B
0.99x
P/S
2.63x
EV/EBITDA
9.04x
PEG ratio
—
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
31.9%
Operating margin
38.2%
Net margin
-6.4%
ROE
-3.6%
ROA
0.5%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.03x
Current ratio
0.95x
Quick ratio
0.66x
Total debt
$22.51M
Total cash
$2.08M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$407.42M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-15.5%
EPS TTM
-0.20
EPS 5Y CAGR
-27.1%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$95.61M
Free CF TTM
$17.30M
FCF margin
4.2%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
—