One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$32.05 our estimate vs market $9.62
Wall Street consensus: $12.49 (-61.0% lower than our fair-value estimate)
70% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPK · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers
Current price
$9.62
52-week range
$8.79 - $20.40
Market cap
$2.85B
Balance sheet
Stretched
3.84x Stretched
Net debt $5.50B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
3 Risks
3 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 0.2% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
- Risk Stock trades 27.4% above its 5-year average P/E.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 11.0% to 4.5% over 3 years.
What this company does
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
Graphic Packaging makes the paper and cardboard packaging for everyday items like cereal boxes, six-pack cartons, and fast-food containers. The company earns its money by selling these packaging products to the big brands that make the food, drinks, and household goods you buy regularly. This is important because demand for these essential items tends to be steady, giving the company a more predictable business than one selling non-essential products.
How the company got here
Graphic Packaging has a history stretching back over 100 years, growing into a major player in the packaging world. The current company was formed in 2007, but its real story is one of combining different paper and packaging businesses over time. A key strategy has been vertical integration (owning the different stages of production, from the paper mills to the finished carton), which helps control costs and supply. The company has focused on creating paper-based packaging, positioning itself as a sustainable alternative to plastics. A major recent event was the completion of a massive new paperboard mill in Waco, Texas, a huge investment intended to make their production much more efficient.
What it actually does
You've almost certainly used a Graphic Packaging product without knowing it. The company makes the paper-based containers for many everyday items you'd find in a grocery store or fast-food restaurant. This includes the cardboard box for your cereal, the paperboard carton that holds a six-pack of drinks, and the paper cups and takeout containers from quick-service restaurants. They don't just make the boxes; they also design them and even build the specialized machinery that companies use to assemble the packaging in their own factories. Their focus is on using renewable and recycled materials to create this packaging.
Americas Paperboard Packaging
This is the company's largest business segment by a wide margin, generating the majority of its revenue. It focuses on selling paperboard packaging to companies that make consumer packaged goods (the everyday items you buy at the store) in North and South America. Its customers are some of the biggest names in food, beverages, and household products. This segment also produces the paper cups, lids, and food containers used by fast-food chains and other foodservice companies.
International Paperboard Packaging
This segment does the same thing as the Americas business, but for the rest of the world, primarily in Europe, Asia, and Australia. It sells paperboard packaging to consumer packaged goods companies that serve the food, beverage, and consumer product markets outside of the Americas. While smaller than the Americas segment, it provides the company with a global reach and serves many of the same multinational brands in different regions.
What management is betting on now
The company's main focus is on sustainability and innovation, which they call their "Vision 2030" strategy. They are making a big bet that major brands will continue to switch from plastic to paper-based packaging to meet their own environmental goals. To capture this trend, Graphic Packaging is investing heavily in developing new types of paperboard packaging that are more convenient and environmentally friendly. They are also focused on making their own operations more efficient and improving their cash flow (the cash left over after paying for business operations and investments) now that their major mill investments are complete.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Revenue
$2.19B
Net income
$24.00M
Diluted EPS
0.08
Operating cash flow
$158.00M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$2.16B
Net income
$-43.00M
Diluted EPS
-0.14
Operating cash flow
$-113.00M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$2.10B
Net income
$-33.00M
Diluted EPS
0.24
Operating cash flow
$521.00M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$2.19B
Net income
$246.00M
Diluted EPS
0.48
Operating cash flow
$227.00M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$2.20B
Net income
$104.00M
Diluted EPS
0.34
Operating cash flow
$267.00M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$2.12B
Net income
$127.00M
Diluted EPS
0.42
Operating cash flow
$-174.00M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$2.10B
Net income
$138.00M
Diluted EPS
0.46
Operating cash flow
$489.00M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$2.22B
Net income
$165.00M
Diluted EPS
0.55
Operating cash flow
$187.00M
Free cash flow
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Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $32.05 vs current price $9.62
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $12.49 (-61.0% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $32.05 a share — about 233.3% above today's price of $9.62, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Stretched
Net debt $5.5B. Interest coverage 3.8x.
Net debt
$5.50B
Interest coverage
3.84x
Graphic Packaging Holding Company is healthier than 0 of 1 peers on balance-sheet leverage.
Stretched
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
GPK
BASELINE
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
Total debt $5.70B Interest coverage 3.84x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
What you should know
The case for and against GPK
3 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 0.2% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
-
Dividend yield is 4.5% with 12-year payout history.
Risks
-
Stock trades 27.4% above its 5-year average P/E.
-
Operating margin compressed from 11.0% to 4.5% over 3 years.
-
Net debt grew 0.4% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
14.79x
Forward P/E
8.60x
P/B
0.88x
P/S
0.33x
EV/EBITDA
7.31x
PEG ratio
3.33x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
15.5%
Operating margin
4.5%
Net margin
2.2%
ROE
6.0%
ROA
3.1%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
1.76x
Current ratio
1.38x
Quick ratio
0.50x
Total debt
$5.70B
Total cash
$207.00M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$8.64B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
4.8%
EPS TTM
0.65
EPS 5Y CAGR
-4.3%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$793.00M
Free CF TTM
$-81.00M
FCF margin
-0.9%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
4.5%
Payout ratio
67.7%
Last ex-div date
2026-09-15