One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$13.79 our estimate vs market $13.23
Wall Street consensus: $18.50 (34.1% higher than our fair-value estimate)
4% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Green Plains Inc.
GPRE · NMS · Basic Materials · Chemicals
Current price
$13.23
52-week range
$9.29 - $19.65
Market cap
$927.36M
Balance sheet
Distressed
-1.10x Concerning
Net debt $381.59M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Returns 23.0% on equity, ahead of 80% of its peers.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 1.9% (peer median: 7.0%).
- Risk Net debt grew 2.8% over 3 years.
What this company does
Green Plains Inc.
Green Plains Inc. makes eco-friendly fuels from corn, like ethanol, and also sells related products such as animal feed ingredients. Their main income comes from selling these fuels and ingredients, plus services like storing grain for farmers. This business matters because it connects farming to the energy market, providing sustainable options.
How the company got here
Green Plains Inc. started in 2004, originally focused on renewable energy. The company's journey has involved evolving its business to focus on producing lower-carbon fuels and related products. A key turning point was its name change from Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. to Green Plains Inc. in 2014, signaling a broader scope beyond just ethanol. Headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, the company has navigated the dynamic energy and agricultural markets to reach its current position.
What it actually does
At its core, Green Plains Inc. is in the business of transforming corn into valuable products. Think of it like a large-scale kitchen that takes corn and, through a process called fermentation, turns it into ethanol, a type of biofuel that can be blended with gasoline. Along the way, it also produces other useful byproducts like animal feed ingredients and renewable oils. The company also offers services related to grain handling and trading, connecting farmers with markets.
Ethanol Production
This is the company's primary business, where it converts corn into ethanol. Ethanol is a fuel additive that helps reduce harmful emissions when mixed with gasoline. In this segment, Green Plains also produces "distiller grains," which are a high-protein feed for livestock, and "renewable corn oil," used in various industrial applications and for making biodiesel. This segment represents a significant portion of Green Plains' overall operations, as it's the core of their low-carbon fuel production.
Agribusiness and Energy Services
This segment acts as a support and complementary business to the ethanol production. Green Plains is involved in procuring grain, essentially buying corn from farmers, and then marketing these commodities. They also provide essential services like grain drying and storage, helping farmers manage their harvests. Additionally, the company trades various commodities, including ethanol, natural gas, and other agricultural products, acting as a middleman in these markets.
What management is betting on now
Green Plains is strategically focusing on increasing the production of higher-value products from its corn processing operations. This includes a push towards producing "ultra-high protein" ingredients for animal feed, which can command better prices than traditional distiller grains. The company is also investing in technologies to enhance the production of renewable corn oil and other co-products. The goal is to become a leader in low-carbon, high-value ingredients derived from agriculture, moving beyond just basic ethanol production.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$-54.23M
FY2025 Q1
$-71.75M
FY2025 Q2
$47.65M
FY2025 Q3
$35.76M
FY2025 Q4
$62.01M
FY2026 Q1
$-45.95M
FY2026 Q2
$75.58M
FY2026 Q3
$-11.32M
Revenue
$495.99M
Net income
$85.44M
Diluted EPS
1.03
Operating cash flow
$583.00K
Free cash flow
$-11.32M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$446.22M
Net income
$67.15M
Diluted EPS
0.83
Operating cash flow
$86.27M
Free cash flow
$75.58M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$445.80M
Net income
$32.94M
Diluted EPS
0.42
Operating cash flow
$-39.50M
Free cash flow
$-45.95M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$428.85M
Net income
$11.94M
Diluted EPS
0.26
Operating cash flow
$67.34M
Free cash flow
$62.01M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$508.49M
Net income
$11.93M
Diluted EPS
0.17
Operating cash flow
$39.77M
Free cash flow
$35.76M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$552.83M
Net income
$-72.24M
Diluted EPS
-1.09
Operating cash flow
$58.80M
Free cash flow
$47.65M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$601.51M
Net income
$-72.91M
Diluted EPS
-1.14
Operating cash flow
$-55.04M
Free cash flow
$-71.75M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$584.02M
Net income
$-54.94M
Diluted EPS
-0.79
Operating cash flow
$-26.97M
Free cash flow
$-54.23M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $13.79 vs current price $13.23
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $18.50 (34.1% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $13.79 a share — about 4.2% above today's price of $13.23, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $381.6M. Interest coverage -1.1x.
Net debt
$381.59M
Interest coverage
-1.10x
Green Plains Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
GPRE
BASELINE
Green Plains Inc.
Total debt $541.57M Interest coverage -1.10x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $17.82M Interest coverage 4.07x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while GPRE does not.
Total debt $1.09B Interest coverage 2.72x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while GPRE does not.
Total debt $75.61M Interest coverage 1.41x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while GPRE does not.
Total debt $552.13M Interest coverage -0.68x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $324.00K Interest coverage -346.34x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
What you should know
The case for and against GPRE
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Returns 23.0% on equity, ahead of 80% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
-
Trades at 8.2x P/E vs peer median 9.3x (11.4% cheaper).
Risks
-
Insider ownership is only 1.9% (peer median: 7.0%).
-
Net debt grew 2.8% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
8.22x
Forward P/E
7.85x
P/B
0.97x
P/S
0.51x
EV/EBITDA
4.64x
PEG ratio
1.16x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
19.8%
Operating margin
18.7%
Net margin
10.9%
ROE
23.0%
ROA
7.6%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.57x
Current ratio
2.31x
Quick ratio
1.50x
Total debt
$541.57M
Total cash
$159.99M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$1.82B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-7.3%
EPS TTM
1.61
EPS 5Y CAGR
—
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$114.69M
Free CF TTM
$73.67M
FCF margin
4.1%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
2019-05-23