One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$192.69 our estimate vs market $88.47
Wall Street consensus: $108.50 (-43.7% lower than our fair-value estimate)
54% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
HCC · NYQ · Basic Materials · Coking Coal
Current price
$88.47
52-week range
$60.70 - $111.42
Market cap
$4.67B
Balance sheet
Healthy
4.69x Stretched
Net cash $86.67M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 14.4% last year.
- Reward Returns 10.0% on equity, ahead of 75% of its peers.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 48.1% to 18.5% over 3 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 1.8% (peer median: 9.8%).
What this company does
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
Warrior Met Coal mines a special type of coal in Alabama that is a key ingredient for making new steel. The company makes its money by exporting this "coking coal" to steel manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. This means its financial health is closely tied to the global demand for steel, which is used to build everything from cars to skyscrapers.
How the company got here
Warrior Met Coal was formed in 2015 to buy the Alabama-based coal mining operations of another company, Walter Energy, that was going through bankruptcy. This allowed the new company to start with a focused set of high-quality mines. The company became publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange in 2017, establishing itself as a specialized producer of metallurgical coal. A major event in its recent history was a lengthy labor strike from 2021 to 2023 involving contract negotiations with the United Mine Workers of America.
What it actually does
Warrior Met Coal is a mining company that digs up a specific type of coal called metallurgical (or "met") coal, which is a crucial ingredient for making steel. This is different from thermal coal, which is burned to create electricity. The company operates underground mines in Alabama and sells its specialized coal to steel manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. Think of them as a key supplier providing a necessary raw material for industries that build cars, bridges, and buildings.
Mining
This is the company's one and only business focus. Warrior operates two main underground mines in Alabama, called Mine No. 4 and Mine No. 7, to extract a premium type of metallurgical coal. This high-quality coal is desirable for steel producers because it has low sulfur and strong properties for the steelmaking process. The vast majority of the company's revenue (the money it makes from sales) comes from digging up this coal and selling it to steel companies across the globe.
Natural Gas
As a part of its coal mining operations, the company also extracts and sells natural gas. This gas is a byproduct that is removed from the coal seams, partly as a safety measure for the underground mines. While the company does sell this natural gas, it represents a very small portion of its overall business compared to coal sales. The main focus remains on producing and exporting metallurgical coal for the steel industry.
What management is betting on now
The company's biggest bet for the future is a major new mining project called Blue Creek. This new mine is expected to significantly increase the amount of coal Warrior can produce and will allow it to offer a different type of metallurgical coal, broadening its product mix. Management is focused on completing this large project on budget to secure long-term growth and solidify its position as a low-cost supplier in the global market. They are also focused on returning money to shareholders through dividends (a portion of profits paid out to investors) and share buybacks (when a company buys its own stock to reduce the number of shares available).
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Revenue
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Net income
$87.43M
Diluted EPS
1.65
Operating cash flow
$132.28M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
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Net income
$72.34M
Diluted EPS
1.37
Operating cash flow
$-11.73M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
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Net income
$22.96M
Diluted EPS
0.43
Operating cash flow
$76.09M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
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Net income
$36.60M
Diluted EPS
0.70
Operating cash flow
$104.69M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
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Net income
$5.61M
Diluted EPS
0.11
Operating cash flow
$37.55M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
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Net income
$-8.17M
Diluted EPS
-0.16
Operating cash flow
$10.92M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
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Net income
$1.14M
Diluted EPS
0.02
Operating cash flow
$54.21M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
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Net income
$41.77M
Diluted EPS
0.80
Operating cash flow
$62.21M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $192.69 vs current price $88.47
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $108.50 (-43.7% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $192.69 a share — about 117.8% above today's price of $88.47, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $86.7M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage 4.7x.
Net debt
$-86.67M
Interest coverage
4.69x
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 4.7 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 3 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
HCC
BASELINE
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
Total debt $235.83M Interest coverage 4.69x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $11.40M Interest coverage -20.33x -100% vs HCC This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with HCC.
Total debt $424.90M Interest coverage -0.13x -100% vs HCC This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with HCC.
Total debt $468.42M Interest coverage -7.17x -100% vs HCC This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with HCC.
What you should know
The case for and against HCC
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 14.4% last year.
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Returns 10.0% on equity, ahead of 75% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from 48.1% to 18.5% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 1.8% (peer median: 9.8%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
21.27x
Forward P/E
12.94x
P/B
2.04x
P/S
2.78x
EV/EBITDA
10.25x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
30.6%
Operating margin
18.5%
Net margin
13.0%
ROE
10.0%
ROA
5.2%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.10x
Current ratio
3.93x
Quick ratio
2.51x
Total debt
$235.83M
Total cash
$322.50M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$1.34B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
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EPS TTM
4.16
EPS 5Y CAGR
-55.7%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$301.33M
Free CF TTM
$-100.38M
FCF margin
-7.5%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.4%
Payout ratio
7.7%
Last ex-div date
2026-08-10