One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$229.62 our estimate vs market $80.80
Wall Street consensus: $109.00 (-52.5% lower than our fair-value estimate)
65% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
HCC · NYQ · Basic Materials · Coking Coal
Current price
$80.80
52-week range
$71.80 - $111.42
Market cap
$4.27B
Balance sheet
Healthy
4.69x Stretched
Net cash $86.67M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 14.4% last year.
- Reward Returns 10.0% on equity, ahead of 75% of its peers.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 48.1% to 18.5% over 3 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 1.8% (peer median: 9.8%).
What this company does
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
Warrior Met Coal sells a special type of coal used to make steel, mainly shipping it to steelmakers in Europe, South America, and Asia. This coal is their primary money maker because it's essential for producing high-quality steel. They also sell natural gas that comes out of their coal mines as an extra source of income.
How the company got here
Warrior Met Coal was formed in 2015 when private equity firms acquired the mining assets of Walter Energy, which was going through bankruptcy. The new company, Warrior Met Coal, emerged from this restructuring with a cleaner financial slate and a focus on producing high-quality metallurgical coal. It went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2017. Since then, it has transformed from a company that emerged from bankruptcy into a profitable leader in the materials sector, known for its premium hard-coking coal. A significant event in its recent history was a labor strike that lasted from 2021 to 2023, highlighting the importance of workforce stability in mining operations.
What it actually does
Warrior Met Coal mines and exports a specific type of coal called metallurgical coal, also known as hard-coking coal (HCC). This isn't the coal used to generate electricity (that's thermal coal); instead, HCC is a crucial ingredient in making steel. Think of it as a key component that metal manufacturers need to produce steel, which is then used to build everything from cars to bridges. The company's mines are located in Alabama, and it ships its product to customers in Europe, South America, and Asia.
Coking Coal
This is Warrior Met Coal's primary business. The company operates underground mines in Alabama to extract hard-coking coal (HCC). This type of coal is essential for producing coke, a fuel used in blast furnaces to make steel. Warrior Met Coal sells this high-quality coal to steel manufacturers globally, primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. This segment represents the vast majority of the company's revenue and is its core operation.
Natural Gas
As a byproduct of its coal mining operations, Warrior Met Coal also extracts natural gas. This gas is captured from the coal seams within the mines. The company processes this natural gas and sells it, adding a small but supplementary revenue stream to its main coal business. While not as significant as its coal sales, this byproduct revenue contributes to the company's overall financial performance.
What management is betting on now
Warrior Met Coal is focused on expanding its production capacity and enhancing its product offerings through its Blue Creek growth project. This initiative is designed to increase the company's output of high-quality coal and potentially introduce new types of metallurgical coal to its portfolio. Management is also prioritizing disciplined capital allocation, which means carefully deciding how to use the company's cash. This includes returning money to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks, while also ensuring the company has enough cash on hand to manage through different market conditions and fund its growth projects.
Price history
How the share price has moved
—
Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Revenue
—
Net income
$49.31M
Diluted EPS
0.93
Operating cash flow
$165.99M
Free cash flow
—
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
—
Net income
$87.43M
Diluted EPS
1.65
Operating cash flow
$132.28M
Free cash flow
—
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
—
Net income
$72.34M
Diluted EPS
1.37
Operating cash flow
$-11.73M
Free cash flow
—
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
—
Net income
$22.96M
Diluted EPS
0.43
Operating cash flow
$76.09M
Free cash flow
—
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
—
Net income
$36.60M
Diluted EPS
0.70
Operating cash flow
$104.69M
Free cash flow
—
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
—
Net income
$5.61M
Diluted EPS
0.11
Operating cash flow
$37.55M
Free cash flow
—
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
—
Net income
$-8.17M
Diluted EPS
-0.16
Operating cash flow
$10.92M
Free cash flow
—
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
—
Net income
$1.14M
Diluted EPS
0.02
Operating cash flow
$54.21M
Free cash flow
—
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $229.62 vs current price $80.80
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $109.00 (-52.5% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $229.62 a share — about 184.2% above today's price of $80.80, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $86.7M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage 4.7x.
Net debt
$-86.67M
Interest coverage
4.69x
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 4.7 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 3 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
HCC
BASELINE
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
Total debt $235.83M Interest coverage 4.69x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $11.40M Interest coverage -20.33x -100% vs HCC This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with HCC.
Total debt $374.10M Interest coverage -0.13x -100% vs HCC This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with HCC.
Total debt $468.48M Interest coverage -7.17x -100% vs HCC This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with HCC.
What you should know
The case for and against HCC
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 14.4% last year.
-
Returns 10.0% on equity, ahead of 75% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from 48.1% to 18.5% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 1.8% (peer median: 9.8%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
19.42x
Forward P/E
9.97x
P/B
1.98x
P/S
2.54x
EV/EBITDA
9.41x
PEG ratio
—
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
30.6%
Operating margin
18.5%
Net margin
13.0%
ROE
10.0%
ROA
5.2%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.10x
Current ratio
3.93x
Quick ratio
2.51x
Total debt
$235.83M
Total cash
$322.50M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$1.34B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
—
EPS TTM
4.16
EPS 5Y CAGR
-55.7%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$362.63M
Free CF TTM
$-100.38M
FCF margin
-7.5%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.4%
Payout ratio
7.7%
Last ex-div date
2026-11-06