One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$44.30 our estimate vs market $40.76
Wall Street consensus: $43.25 (-2.4% lower than our fair-value estimate)
8% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Heineken N.V.
HEINY · OQX · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Current price
$40.76
52-week range
$37.03 - $47.63
Market cap
$45.45B
Balance sheet
Watch
5.17x Adequate
Net debt $16.80B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
2 Risks
2 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
- Reward Dividend yield is 2.7% with 26-year payout history.
- Risk Net debt grew 6.6% over 3 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 14.7% to 13.4% over 3 years.
What this company does
Heineken N.V.
Heineken is one of the world's largest beer companies, making money by brewing and selling famous brands like Heineken, Amstel, and Dos Equis to bars and stores globally. The company's success relies on its extensive supply chain (the entire process of making and delivering its drinks), which ensures its products are available almost everywhere. This wide reach and strong brand recognition help it compete in the crowded global beverage market.
How the company got here
Heineken started in 1864 when a young entrepreneur named Gerard Adriaan Heineken bought a brewery in Amsterdam called 'The Haystack'. A key moment was the development of a unique yeast strain, called 'A-yeast', which has given the beer its signature taste since the 19th century. The company grew by exporting early on, famously being one of the first beers shipped to America after Prohibition ended. Over many decades, it bought other breweries, like its Dutch rival Amstel, and expanded all over the world to become one of the largest brewers globally.
What it actually does
Heineken makes and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks that you can find in stores, bars, and restaurants. While its most famous product is the green-bottled Heineken beer, the company owns over 300 brands enjoyed in more than 170 countries. This includes other popular international beers like Amstel, Tiger, and Birra Moretti, as well as many local favorites specific to different countries. Beyond beer, Heineken is also the world's biggest cider maker, producing brands like Strongbow, and is a leader in the growing market for zero-alcohol beers with products like Heineken 0.0.
Europe
This is Heineken's home turf and its largest market, where it all began in the Netherlands. In this region, the company sells its famous Heineken brand alongside many other well-known European beers like Amstel, Birra Moretti from Italy, and Cruzcampo from Spain. Customers here are mainly grocery stores, pubs, and restaurants that stock its wide variety of beers and ciders. While it's a mature market (meaning it's not growing as fast as other parts of the world), it provides a steady and significant portion of the company's overall sales.
Americas
Heineken has a strong presence in North, Central, and South America, selling popular Mexican beers like Tecate and Dos Equis, which it acquired through a major deal. The United States is a huge market for its flagship Heineken brand, which has been a top imported beer there for decades. In fast-growing markets like Brazil and Mexico, the company sells a mix of its international premium brands and local favorites to a growing middle class of consumers. This region is a major engine for the company's growth.
Africa, Middle East & Eastern Europe
This part of the business sells beer and other drinks across a vast and diverse area with many growing economies. The company operates numerous breweries in Africa, producing popular local brands like Star and Windhoek, in addition to its global ones. Recently, Heineken has expanded its offerings here beyond beer to include ciders, wines, and spirits to cater to local tastes. This segment represents a key area for future growth as consumer spending (the amount of money people spend on goods and services) is expected to rise.
Asia Pacific
In this region, Heineken sells brands that are very popular locally, such as Tiger beer from Singapore and Bintang from Indonesia. The company often partners with local brewers or acquires them to gain a foothold in these markets, like its investment in India's United Breweries, the maker of Kingfisher beer. This segment is a mix of established markets and emerging ones with significant growth potential. It's a crucial area for the company's long-term expansion plans.
What management is betting on now
The company's current strategy, called 'EverGreen', focuses on achieving 'superior, balanced growth'. A big part of this is 'premiumization' (encouraging customers to choose more expensive, higher-quality brands), which helps increase profit margins (the portion of sales revenue the company keeps as profit). They are also investing heavily in low- and no-alcohol drinks like Heineken 0.0 to meet changing consumer tastes. Finally, management is focused on growing in emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Asia, and using technology to make the business more efficient.
Price history
How the share price has moved
—
Loading price history…
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $44.30 vs current price $40.76
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $43.25 (-2.4% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $44.30 a share — about 8.7% above today's price of $40.76, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Watch
Net debt $16.8B. Interest coverage 5.2x.
Net debt
$16.80B
Interest coverage
5.17x
Heineken N.V. is healthier than 0 of 1 peers on balance-sheet leverage.
Watch
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
HEINY
BASELINE
Heineken N.V.
Total debt $22.32B Interest coverage 5.17x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
What you should know
The case for and against HEINY
2 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
-
Dividend yield is 2.7% with 26-year payout history.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 6.6% over 3 years.
-
Operating margin compressed from 14.7% to 13.4% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
20.90x
Forward P/E
12.25x
P/B
10.95x
P/S
1.58x
EV/EBITDA
44.59x
PEG ratio
1.29x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
37.0%
Operating margin
13.4%
Net margin
6.6%
ROE
9.9%
ROA
4.3%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.94x
Current ratio
0.93x
Quick ratio
0.64x
Total debt
$22.32B
Total cash
$5.53B
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$33.29B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
0.0%
EPS TTM
1.95
EPS 5Y CAGR
-10.1%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$5.80B
Free CF TTM
$3.02B
FCF margin
9.1%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
2.7%
Payout ratio
56.3%
Last ex-div date
2026-04-28