One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$67.26 our estimate vs market $26.03
Wall Street consensus: $28.18 (-58.1% lower than our fair-value estimate)
61% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles
Current price
$26.03
52-week range
$17.09 - $29.88
Market cap
$2.71B
Balance sheet
Watch
11.56x Adequate
Net debt $1.02B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
3 Risks
3 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Returns 6.1% on equity, ahead of 80% of its peers.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
- Risk Stock trades 80.3% above its 5-year average P/E.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 15.8% to 5.6% over 3 years.
What this company does
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Harley-Davidson sells its iconic motorcycles, parts, and apparel, but a key part of its business is its financing division which provides loans to both dealers and customers. This is important because offering its own loans makes it easier for people to afford an expensive bike, which in turn helps drive sales of the motorcycles themselves. The company is also expanding into electric bikes with its LiveWire brand to appeal to a new generation of riders.
How the company got here
Founded in a small Milwaukee shed in 1903 by William S. Harley and Arthur Davidson, the company grew to become a dominant American motorcycle manufacturer. It was one of only two major American motorcycle makers to survive the Great Depression. The brand's identity became deeply connected with post-WWII motorcycle culture and the idea of freedom on the open road. After a period of quality issues under a different owner, a group of executives bought the company back in 1981 and returned it to its roots of quality manufacturing, leading to a major comeback. Today, it stands as an iconic global brand known for its heavyweight motorcycles and strong community of riders.
What it actually does
Harley-Davidson is famous for making large, powerful motorcycles often called "heavyweight" or "cruiser" bikes, designed for long, comfortable rides. Beyond the bikes themselves, the company sells a wide range of related items that celebrate the brand's lifestyle. This includes everything from motorcycle parts and accessories for customization to clothing like leather jackets and t-shirts. They also provide financing (loans to help people buy their products) and insurance for their customers.
Harley-Davidson Motor Company
This is the core of the company and what most people think of when they hear the name; it's responsible for the vast majority of the company's revenue. This segment designs, manufactures, and sells the iconic Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including famous lines like cruisers and Grand American Touring bikes. It also sells branded merchandise, such as clothing and riding gear, and all the parts and accessories that riders use to customize their bikes. The motorcycles and related products are sold to customers through a global network of independent dealers.
LiveWire
This is Harley-Davidson's newer, all-electric division, representing a small but forward-looking part of the business. LiveWire designs and sells electric motorcycles for a new generation of riders focused on technology and sustainability. In addition to the motorcycles, this segment also offers related products like electric balance bikes for kids, apparel, and accessories. This business operates as a distinct brand to attract a different type of customer than the traditional Harley-Davidson rider.
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)
This segment is essentially the company's own bank, and it plays a crucial role in making sales happen, contributing a significant portion of revenue. HDFS provides loans to customers to help them purchase new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles. It also offers wholesale financing (loans to dealers to help them stock their showrooms with bikes and parts). Additionally, this division provides insurance and other protection products for riders, making it a one-stop shop for getting on the road.
What management is betting on now
The company's current strategy, called "Back to the Bricks," focuses on reconnecting with its core customers and making its motorcycles more accessible. This involves bringing back popular and more affordable models, like the Sportster 883, to attract new and younger riders who may have been priced out of the brand. Management is also focused on strengthening its relationship with its dealer network to improve profitability. The plan signals a shift away from being a niche, premium brand and back towards being a broader, more accessible motorcycle company, including expanding in international markets.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$300.42M
FY2024 Q4
$77.04M
FY2025 Q1
$111.56M
FY2025 Q2
$332.37M
FY2025 Q3
$-129.12M
FY2025 Q4
$100.43M
FY2026 Q1
$-259.81M
FY2026 Q2
$155.43M
Revenue
$1.23B
Net income
$79.81M
Diluted EPS
0.75
Operating cash flow
$168.34M
Free cash flow
$155.43M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.17B
Net income
$24.77M
Diluted EPS
0.22
Operating cash flow
$-228.02M
Free cash flow
$-259.81M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$496.16M
Net income
$-279.30M
Diluted EPS
-2.27
Operating cash flow
$152.02M
Free cash flow
$100.43M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.34B
Net income
$377.37M
Diluted EPS
3.10
Operating cash flow
$-92.59M
Free cash flow
$-129.12M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.31B
Net income
$107.57M
Diluted EPS
0.88
Operating cash flow
$367.96M
Free cash flow
$332.37M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.33B
Net income
$133.10M
Diluted EPS
1.07
Operating cash flow
$141.53M
Free cash flow
$111.56M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$687.61M
Net income
$-116.89M
Diluted EPS
-0.82
Operating cash flow
$133.18M
Free cash flow
$77.04M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.15B
Net income
$119.04M
Diluted EPS
0.91
Operating cash flow
$353.01M
Free cash flow
$300.42M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $67.26 vs current price $26.03
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $28.18 (-58.1% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $67.26 a share — about 158.4% above today's price of $26.03, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Watch
Net debt $1.0B. Interest coverage 11.6x.
Net debt
$1.02B
Interest coverage
11.56x
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 11.6 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Watch
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
HOG
BASELINE
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Total debt $2.31B Interest coverage 11.56x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $2.06B Interest coverage 0.26x -98% vs HOG Carries about 44.3x less debt cushion than HOG.
Total debt $919.26M Interest coverage 6.17x -47% vs HOG Carries about 1.9x less debt cushion than HOG.
Total debt $482.90M Interest coverage 2.21x -81% vs HOG Carries about 5.2x less debt cushion than HOG.
Total debt $77.31M Interest coverage -296.02x -100% vs HOG This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with HOG.
What you should know
The case for and against HOG
3 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Returns 6.1% on equity, ahead of 80% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
-
Trades at 14.5x P/E vs peer median 17.9x (19.0% cheaper).
Risks
-
Stock trades 80.3% above its 5-year average P/E.
-
Operating margin compressed from 15.8% to 5.6% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 1.2% (peer median: 5.5%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
14.46x
Forward P/E
12.98x
P/B
0.87x
P/S
0.64x
EV/EBITDA
8.77x
PEG ratio
2.04x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
28.0%
Operating margin
5.6%
Net margin
4.8%
ROE
6.1%
ROA
1.6%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.74x
Current ratio
1.90x
Quick ratio
1.59x
Total debt
$2.31B
Total cash
$1.28B
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$4.24B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-4.3%
EPS TTM
1.80
EPS 5Y CAGR
-17.6%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$-255.00K
Free CF TTM
$415.24M
FCF margin
9.8%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
2.9%
Payout ratio
40.8%
Last ex-div date
2026-09-15