One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$71.39 our estimate vs market $32.66
Wall Street consensus: $30.10 (-57.8% lower than our fair-value estimate)
54% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Recreational Vehicles
Current price
$32.66
52-week range
$17.09 - $34.84
Market cap
$3.30B
Balance sheet
Watch
11.56x Adequate
Net debt $993.48M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
3 Risks
2 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
- Reward Dividend yield is 2.3% with 34-year payout history.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 15.8% to 4.7% over 3 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 1.2% (peer median: 5.6%).
What this company does
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Harley-Davidson makes and sells motorcycles, from classic cruisers to their newer electric bikes, along with gear and accessories. A big chunk of their income also comes from financing purchases and offering insurance through their financial services arm. This mix is important because it shows they have multiple ways to make money beyond just selling bikes, giving them more stability.
How the company got here
Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 by William Harley and Arthur Davidson in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, starting in a backyard shed. The company officially incorporated in 1907, with Arthur's brothers Walter and William joining the business. Harley-Davidson survived the Great Depression and has grown to become one of America's most iconic motorcycle manufacturers and lifestyle brands. The company was acquired by AMF in 1969 and then bought back by its management in 1981, eventually returning to public markets in 1986. In recent years, Harley-Davidson has focused on a strategic plan called "The Hardwire" (2021-2025) and more recently "Back to the Bricks," emphasizing brand desirability, profitability, and shareholder value over just selling more units.
What it actually does
Harley-Davidson designs, manufactures, and sells premium motorcycles, particularly in the heavyweight touring and cruiser categories. Beyond motorcycles, the company also generates revenue from selling parts, accessories, and branded apparel. Harley-Davidson's products are sold globally through a network of independent dealers and also via e-commerce channels. The company's brand is deeply associated with a lifestyle of freedom and self-expression.
Harley-Davidson Motor Company
This is the core business that designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, along with their associated parts, accessories, and apparel. This segment is the largest contributor to the company's revenue, making up the majority of sales. The Motor Company focuses on its iconic heavyweight motorcycle segments like touring and cruiser bikes, aiming for profitable growth and brand desirability. They also offer a range of riding gear and merchandise, leveraging the strong Harley-Davidson brand.
LiveWire
LiveWire is Harley-Davidson's segment dedicated to electric motorcycles. This part of the business sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for children, electric bikes, and related accessories and apparel. While it represents a smaller portion of the company's overall revenue compared to the traditional motorcycle business, it is a key area for future innovation and growth in electric vehicle technology.
Harley-Davidson Financial Services
This segment, often referred to as HDFS, provides crucial financial support for both customers and dealers. It offers wholesale financing, such as floor plan financing for dealers to stock motorcycles and parts, and retail financing for customers purchasing new or used bikes. HDFS also provides insurance and other protection products, and licenses credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. This business is a significant revenue generator for the company, representing a substantial portion of its total income.
What management is betting on now
Harley-Davidson's current strategy, "Back to the Bricks," focuses on restoring performance and achieving profitable growth by leaning into its core strengths. Management is prioritizing brand desirability, improving the profitability of its dealer network, and recapturing market share in key areas like new and used motorcycles, parts, and apparel. They are also focused on strengthening the company's financial position, aiming for improved free cash flow (cash generated after operating expenses and capital expenditures) and EBITDA margin (a measure of profitability). A key goal is to double dealer profitability by 2029, recognizing the dealer network as a critical competitive advantage.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$77.04M
FY2025 Q1
$111.56M
FY2025 Q2
$332.37M
FY2025 Q3
$-129.12M
FY2025 Q4
$100.43M
FY2026 Q1
$-259.81M
FY2026 Q2
$155.43M
FY2026 Q3
$315.89M
Revenue
$1.08B
Net income
$42.76M
Diluted EPS
0.40
Operating cash flow
$335.62M
Free cash flow
$315.89M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.23B
Net income
$79.81M
Diluted EPS
0.75
Operating cash flow
$168.34M
Free cash flow
$155.43M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.17B
Net income
$24.77M
Diluted EPS
0.22
Operating cash flow
$-228.02M
Free cash flow
$-259.81M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$496.16M
Net income
$-279.30M
Diluted EPS
-2.27
Operating cash flow
$152.02M
Free cash flow
$100.43M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.34B
Net income
$377.37M
Diluted EPS
3.10
Operating cash flow
$-92.59M
Free cash flow
$-129.12M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.31B
Net income
$107.57M
Diluted EPS
0.88
Operating cash flow
$367.96M
Free cash flow
$332.37M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.33B
Net income
$133.10M
Diluted EPS
1.07
Operating cash flow
$141.53M
Free cash flow
$111.56M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$687.61M
Net income
$-116.89M
Diluted EPS
-0.82
Operating cash flow
$133.18M
Free cash flow
$77.04M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $71.39 vs current price $32.66
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $30.10 (-57.8% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $71.39 a share — about 118.6% above today's price of $32.66, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Watch
Net debt $993.5M. Interest coverage 11.6x.
Net debt
$993.48M
Interest coverage
11.56x
Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 11.6 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Watch
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
HOG
BASELINE
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
Total debt $2.40B Interest coverage 11.56x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $1.76B Interest coverage 0.26x -98% vs HOG Carries about 44.3x less debt cushion than HOG.
Total debt $909.97M Interest coverage 6.17x -47% vs HOG Carries about 1.9x less debt cushion than HOG.
Total debt $494.00M Interest coverage 3.17x -73% vs HOG Carries about 3.6x less debt cushion than HOG.
Total debt $77.62M Interest coverage -296.02x -100% vs HOG This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with HOG.
What you should know
The case for and against HOG
2 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
-
Dividend yield is 2.3% with 34-year payout history.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from 15.8% to 4.7% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 1.2% (peer median: 5.6%).
-
Return on equity was -4.2% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
15.61x
P/B
1.09x
P/S
0.83x
EV/EBITDA
2,084.21x
PEG ratio
2.53x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
19.7%
Operating margin
4.7%
Net margin
-3.3%
ROE
-4.2%
ROA
-1.2%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.79x
Current ratio
1.97x
Quick ratio
1.66x
Total debt
$2.40B
Total cash
$1.41B
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$3.98B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-4.3%
EPS TTM
-0.87
EPS 5Y CAGR
-17.6%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$427.95M
Free CF TTM
$415.24M
FCF margin
10.4%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
2.3%
Payout ratio
40.4%
Last ex-div date
2026-09-15