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Fundamentals snapshot

Japan Tobacco Inc.

JAPAY · PNK · Consumer Defensive · Tobacco

Current price

$17.36

52-week range

$15.00 - $24.54

Market cap

$61.64B

One-glance verdict

Within fair range

$19.17 our estimate vs market $17.36

Wall Street consensus: $21.50 (12.2% higher than our fair-value estimate)

Balance sheet

Watch

4.37x Stretched

Net debt $4.96B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.

What this company does

Japan Tobacco Inc.

Japan Tobacco Inc. sells cigarettes and other tobacco products like heated tobacco sticks, along with some food items like frozen noodles and sauces. Their main money comes from selling these tobacco products, which is important because it shows how much people are still buying their core offerings. They also have a growing business in "reduced-risk products" which are newer, less harmful alternatives to traditional cigarettes.

Price history

How the share price has moved

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Is it cheap or expensive?

Fair value $19.17 vs current price $17.36

Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $21.50 (12.2% higher than our fair-value estimate).

Our most-likely fair value is $19.17 a share — about 10.4% away from today's price of $17.36, so the stock currently looks fairly priced.

fair

We estimate the cash this business should generate over the next 10 years and beyond, then convert it to today's money for a fair value per share, in its trading currency. Cautious, middle and optimistic growth cases give a range. Not for banks/insurers.

Base

Growth 6.6% · Discount 7.2% · Terminal 2.5%

$19.17

Bear

Growth 3.6% · Discount 7.2% · Terminal 2.5%

$15.83

Bull

Growth 9.0% · Discount 7.2% · Terminal 2.5%

$22.19

Is it drowning in debt?

Watch

Net debt $5.0B. Interest coverage 4.4x.

Net debt $4.96B
Interest coverage 4.37x

Japan Tobacco Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 4.4 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here.

Watch
Worse cushion Baseline Better cushion
JAPAY BASELINE Japan Tobacco Inc.

Total debt $11.73B Interest coverage 4.37x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.

Total debt $47.73B Interest coverage 9.41x +115% vs JAPAY Carries about 2.2x more debt cushion than JAPAY.

Total debt $46.55B Interest coverage 6.05x +38% vs JAPAY Carries about 1.4x more debt cushion than JAPAY.

Total debt $24.06B Interest coverage 10.23x +134% vs JAPAY Carries about 2.3x more debt cushion than JAPAY.

Total debt $1.23B Interest coverage 2.85x -35% vs JAPAY Carries about 1.5x less debt cushion than JAPAY.

Total debt $310.11M Interest coverage 3.76x -14% vs JAPAY Has roughly the same debt cushion as JAPAY.

What you should know

The case for and against JAPAY

3 Rewards 3 Risks

Rewards

  • Revenue grew 13.4% last year.
  • Returns 14.7% on equity, ahead of 75% of its peers.
  • Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.

Risks

  • Stock trades 11405.6% above its 5-year average P/E.
  • Net debt grew 1112.6% over 3 years.
  • Insider ownership is only 0.0% (peer median: 0.2%).

The numbers

All the key metrics, grouped by purpose

Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.

Valuation

How expensive the stock looks

P/E (TTM)
15.93x
Forward P/E
12.49x
P/B
2.37x
P/S
0.02x
EV/EBITDA
0.74x
PEG ratio
1.06x

Profitability

How much profit each dollar creates

Gross margin
57.5%
Operating margin
27.2%
Net margin
16.1%
ROE
14.7%
ROA
7.8%

Health

Liquidity and balance-sheet strength

Debt / equity
0.45x
Current ratio
1.91x
Quick ratio
0.93x
Total debt
$11.73B
Total cash
$6.77B

Growth

How the business has been compounding

Revenue TTM
$23.93B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
9.3%
EPS TTM
1.09
EPS 5Y CAGR
4.8%

Cash flow

How much cash the business throws off

Operating CF TTM
$3.22B
Free CF TTM
$2.20B
FCF margin
9.2%

Dividend

Shareholder payout

Yield
4.8%
Payout ratio
74.9%
Last ex-div date
2026-06-30