One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$85.79 our estimate vs market $17.12
Wall Street consensus: $27.00 (-68.5% lower than our fair-value estimate)
80% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Sempreon, Inc.
MGPI · NMS · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries
Current price
$17.12
52-week range
$12.42 - $26.62
Market cap
$366.74M
Balance sheet
Watch
11.86x Adequate
Net debt $334.96M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
3 Risks
2 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
- Reward Dividend yield is 2.7% with 38-year payout history.
- Risk Return on equity was -34.5% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
- Risk Net debt grew 25.4% over 3 years.
What this company does
Sempreon, Inc.
MGP Ingredients makes and sells alcohol for drinks like whiskey and vodka, along with ingredients for food, like special wheat starches. Their biggest income comes from selling bulk alcohol to other companies that bottle it under their own brand names, and this matters because it shows how much they are relied upon by other businesses in the beverage industry. They also have their own brands of spirits, and their food ingredient business provides specialized products that help food companies make healthier options.
How the company got here
MGP Ingredients, Inc. started in 1941, originally focused on processing grains. Over the decades, it evolved from primarily a grain processor into a significant player in the spirits industry. A key turning point was its strategic expansion into producing and selling its own branded spirits, moving beyond just supplying ingredients and contract distilling for other companies. This shift allowed MGP to capture more value and build its own recognizable brands in the competitive beverage market.
What it actually does
MGP Ingredients is essentially a company that transforms grains into various products for both the food and beverage industries. Think of them as a sophisticated farm-to-bottle operation, but also a farm-to-food-ingredient one. They take raw ingredients like corn and wheat and process them into things like alcohol for spirits, ingredients for food products, and even offer services like aging and blending whiskey.
Distillery Solutions
This part of MGP is like the backbone of the spirits industry, where they process grains like corn and rye into high-quality alcohol. This alcohol is then used by other companies to make popular spirits such as bourbon, whiskey, vodka, and gin. Beyond just the alcohol, they also create valuable by-products from the grain, like animal feed. Additionally, they offer crucial services like storing and aging barrels of whiskey, which is a vital step in creating aged spirits.
Branded Spirits
This is where MGP puts its own name on the bottle, selling a wide variety of spirits directly to consumers. They offer everything from premium bourbons and rye whiskeys to Irish whiskey, gin, and tequila across different price points, from value brands to ultra-premium offerings. This segment allows MGP to build its own identity and connect with customers through well-known labels like Penelope Bourbon and Yellowstone Bourbon, competing directly with other spirit brands on the shelf.
Ingredient Solutions
In this segment, MGP focuses on creating specialized ingredients derived from wheat, primarily for the food industry. They produce things like wheat starches and proteins that are used in various food products to improve texture, provide fiber, or act as binders. These ingredients are sold to food manufacturers and bakeries who incorporate them into items like bread, snacks, and processed foods, often catering to specific needs like gluten-free options.
What management is betting on now
MGP's leadership is focused on growing its own portfolio of branded spirits, aiming to increase the value and recognition of its owned labels. They are also investing in expanding their capacity and capabilities within their distillery solutions, anticipating continued demand for high-quality spirits ingredients and contract distilling services. Furthermore, they are likely looking to innovate within their ingredient solutions, developing new specialty products that meet evolving consumer preferences in the food sector.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$10.44M
FY2025 Q1
$24.76M
FY2025 Q2
$-557.00K
FY2025 Q3
$27.57M
FY2025 Q4
$24.27M
FY2026 Q1
$1.23M
FY2026 Q2
$-52.18M
FY2026 Q3
$27.21M
Revenue
$117.91M
Net income
$6.89M
Diluted EPS
0.32
Operating cash flow
$31.87M
Free cash flow
$27.21M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$124.36M
Net income
$12.01M
Diluted EPS
0.55
Operating cash flow
$-47.69M
Free cash flow
$-52.18M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$106.43M
Net income
$-134.80M
Diluted EPS
-6.30
Operating cash flow
$6.96M
Free cash flow
$1.23M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$138.32M
Net income
$-134.63M
Diluted EPS
-6.23
Operating cash flow
$29.08M
Free cash flow
$24.27M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$130.91M
Net income
$15.42M
Diluted EPS
0.71
Operating cash flow
$36.09M
Free cash flow
$27.57M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$145.49M
Net income
$14.43M
Diluted EPS
0.67
Operating cash flow
$11.67M
Free cash flow
$-557.00K
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$121.65M
Net income
$-3.02M
Diluted EPS
-0.14
Operating cash flow
$44.68M
Free cash flow
$24.76M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$180.80M
Net income
$-41.96M
Diluted EPS
-1.86
Operating cash flow
$28.77M
Free cash flow
$10.44M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $85.79 vs current price $17.12
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $27.00 (-68.5% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $85.79 a share — about 401.1% above today's price of $17.12, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Watch
Net debt $335.0M. Interest coverage 11.9x.
Net debt
$334.96M
Interest coverage
11.86x
Sempreon, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 11.9 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Watch
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
MGPI
BASELINE
Sempreon, Inc.
Total debt $348.56M Interest coverage 11.86x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $2.44B Interest coverage 11.18x -6% vs MGPI Has roughly the same debt cushion as MGPI.
Total debt $22.20B Interest coverage 2.94x -75% vs MGPI Carries about 4.0x less debt cushion than MGPI.
Total debt $10.32B Interest coverage 7.92x -33% vs MGPI Carries about 1.5x less debt cushion than MGPI.
Total debt $10.06B Interest coverage 2.33x -80% vs MGPI Carries about 5.1x less debt cushion than MGPI.
Total debt $541.57M Interest coverage -1.10x -100% vs MGPI This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with MGPI.
What you should know
The case for and against MGPI
2 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
-
Dividend yield is 2.7% with 38-year payout history.
Risks
-
Return on equity was -34.5% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Net debt grew 25.4% over 3 years.
-
Operating margin compressed from 19.0% to 10.6% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
9.09x
P/B
0.61x
P/S
0.75x
EV/EBITDA
8.88x
PEG ratio
1.14x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
34.7%
Operating margin
10.6%
Net margin
-51.4%
ROE
-34.5%
ROA
2.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.58x
Current ratio
6.91x
Quick ratio
1.46x
Total debt
$348.56M
Total cash
$13.60M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$487.01M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-3.8%
EPS TTM
-11.64
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$20.22M
Free CF TTM
$76.04M
FCF margin
15.6%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
2.7%
Payout ratio
98.0%
Last ex-div date
2026-11-13