One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$46.00 our estimate vs market $17.86
Wall Street consensus: $26.27 (-42.9% lower than our fair-value estimate)
61% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
The Mosaic Company
MOS · NYQ · Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
Current price
$17.86
52-week range
$17.75 - $32.25
Market cap
$5.68B
Balance sheet
Watch
4.47x Stretched
Net debt $5.79B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
3 Risks
3 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 1.6% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
- Risk Net debt grew 62.8% over 3 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 25.0% to -0.1% over 3 years.
What this company does
The Mosaic Company
The Mosaic Company is a major producer of phosphate and potash, two key ingredients for farm fertilizer. It makes money by mining these materials and selling them globally through a supply chain (the network of companies involved in getting a product from the maker to the customer) to businesses that sell to farmers. Since fertilizer helps grow more food, Mosaic's business is important for supporting the world's food supply.
How the company got here
The Mosaic Company was formed in 2004 when two large companies, IMC Global and the crop nutrition part of Cargill, decided to merge their fertilizer businesses. This combination created one of the world's largest producers of key crop nutrients. A major turning point came in 2018 when Mosaic purchased a large fertilizer business in Brazil, significantly expanding its operations in the fast-growing South American agricultural market. Over the years, it has grown from a traditional mining company into a global business focused on helping farmers grow more food.
What it actually does
Mosaic is a leading producer of two of the three most important nutrients that farmers use to help crops grow: phosphate and potash. Think of these as essential vitamins for plants, helping them grow strong and produce more food. The company mines these minerals from the ground and processes them into fertilizer products. These fertilizers are then sold to distributors and retailers who, in turn, sell them to farmers around the world to improve the quality and quantity of their harvests.
Phosphates
This is Mosaic's largest business segment, making it the world's top producer of finished phosphate products. The company mines phosphate rock, primarily in Florida, and turns it into different types of fertilizers and animal feed ingredients. Farmers and agricultural companies buy these products to provide phosphorus to plants, which is crucial for root development and converting sunlight into energy. This segment is a major part of Mosaic's business, consistently making up the largest share of its sales.
Potash
Mosaic is also one of the biggest producers of potash, another vital crop nutrient that helps plants resist disease and use water more efficiently. The company operates large mines in Canada and the United States to extract this potassium-rich mineral. This part of the business sells to both agricultural customers and for industrial uses, like in water softeners. The Potash segment is a significant contributor to the company's overall revenue.
Mosaic Fertilizantes
This segment is focused on the Brazilian market, one of the world's most important and fastest-growing agricultural regions. It includes mining, processing, and a large distribution network to sell phosphate and potash fertilizers directly to farmers in Brazil. This business provides a strong foothold in South America and helps balance the seasonal nature of farming in North America. Mosaic Fertilizantes represents a substantial portion of the company's business, making up roughly a third of its revenue.
What management is betting on now
Mosaic is focused on making its core phosphate and potash businesses more efficient and cost-effective. The company is also investing in new and innovative products, such as its Mosaic Biosciences platform, which develops biological solutions to help crops use nutrients more effectively and support sustainable farming. Additionally, they are exploring ways to extract other valuable minerals from the byproducts of their mining operations. These efforts are aimed at growing the business while also focusing on environmental responsibility and innovation in agriculture.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$72.10M
FY2024 Q4
$-74.80M
FY2025 Q1
$-297.90M
FY2025 Q2
$304.90M
FY2025 Q3
$-135.90M
FY2025 Q4
$-405.70M
FY2026 Q1
$-252.60M
FY2026 Q2
$-152.90M
Revenue
$2.82B
Net income
$-272.80M
Diluted EPS
-0.86
Operating cash flow
$167.40M
Free cash flow
$-152.90M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.00B
Net income
$-257.60M
Diluted EPS
-0.81
Operating cash flow
$104.20M
Free cash flow
$-252.60M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.97B
Net income
$-519.50M
Diluted EPS
-1.63
Operating cash flow
$-56.10M
Free cash flow
$-405.70M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.45B
Net income
$411.40M
Diluted EPS
1.29
Operating cash flow
$228.50M
Free cash flow
$-135.90M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$3.01B
Net income
$410.70M
Diluted EPS
1.29
Operating cash flow
$609.50M
Free cash flow
$304.90M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.62B
Net income
$238.10M
Diluted EPS
0.75
Operating cash flow
$42.90M
Free cash flow
$-297.90M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.82B
Net income
$169.00M
Diluted EPS
0.53
Operating cash flow
$219.30M
Free cash flow
$-74.80M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.81B
Net income
$122.20M
Diluted EPS
0.38
Operating cash flow
$312.90M
Free cash flow
$72.10M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $46.00 vs current price $17.86
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $26.27 (-42.9% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $46.00 a share — about 157.6% above today's price of $17.86, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Watch
Net debt $5.8B. Interest coverage 4.5x.
Net debt
$5.79B
Interest coverage
4.47x
The Mosaic Company's profit covers its interest bill about 4.5 times over.
Watch
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
MOS
BASELINE
The Mosaic Company
Total debt $6.08B Interest coverage 4.47x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $3.61B Interest coverage 16.38x +267% vs MOS Carries about 3.7x more debt cushion than MOS.
Total debt $12.73B Interest coverage 5.31x +19% vs MOS Carries about 1.2x more debt cushion than MOS.
Total debt $3.30B Interest coverage 4.65x +4% vs MOS Has roughly the same debt cushion as MOS.
Total debt $3.77B Interest coverage 6.38x +43% vs MOS Carries about 1.4x more debt cushion than MOS.
Total debt $574.70M Interest coverage 4.28x -4% vs MOS Has roughly the same debt cushion as MOS.
What you should know
The case for and against MOS
3 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 1.6% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
-
Dividend yield is 4.9% with 39-year payout history.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 62.8% over 3 years.
-
Operating margin compressed from 25.0% to -0.1% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -5.1% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
11.54x
P/B
0.50x
P/S
0.46x
EV/EBITDA
6.77x
PEG ratio
2.02x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
11.2%
Operating margin
-0.1%
Net margin
-5.2%
ROE
-5.1%
ROA
1.2%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.52x
Current ratio
1.34x
Quick ratio
0.35x
Total debt
$6.08B
Total cash
$294.00M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$12.25B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-0.6%
EPS TTM
-2.01
EPS 5Y CAGR
-44.7%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$444.00M
Free CF TTM
$-534.60M
FCF margin
-4.4%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
4.9%
Payout ratio
628.6%
Last ex-div date
2026-09-10