One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$4.47 our estimate vs market $37.81
Wall Street consensus: $70.94 (1,487.2% higher than our fair-value estimate)
746% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
MP Materials Corp.
MP · NYQ · Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Current price
$37.81
52-week range
$37.11 - $76.80
Market cap
$6.73B
Balance sheet
Healthy
-4.61x Concerning
Net cash $471.02M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
2 Risks
2 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 36.1% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 63.5% to -14.7% over 3 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -3.6% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
MP Materials Corp.
MP Materials mines and processes rare earth elements, which are crucial ingredients for magnets used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. Most of their money comes from selling these raw rare earth materials, and this is important because the world needs more of these materials to build cleaner energy technologies.
How the company got here
MP Materials' story is deeply connected to the Mountain Pass mine in California, which has a history of rare earth production dating back to the mid-20th century. The mine was once a significant global supplier but faced financial difficulties under previous ownership, leading to bankruptcy. MP Materials was formed in 2017 when it acquired the Mountain Pass assets out of that restructuring. The company went public in 2020, aiming to rebuild a complete rare earth supply chain within the United States. This strategic move is driven by the increasing global demand for rare earth materials, essential for technologies like electric vehicles and defense systems, and the desire to reduce reliance on foreign sources.
What it actually does
MP Materials is a company focused on producing rare earth materials, which are critical components in many modern technologies. Think of them as special ingredients that make things like powerful magnets work. These magnets are essential for electric car motors, wind turbines, and advanced defense systems. The company mines these materials from the earth and then processes them into usable forms.
Materials
This segment is the foundation of MP Materials' operations, centered around the Mountain Pass mine and processing facility in California. Here, the company extracts rare earth ore from the ground and processes it into a concentrate. This concentrate is then further refined into valuable products like neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal. These materials are crucial for manufacturing high-strength permanent magnets. The Materials segment is the largest contributor to the company's revenue, with NdPr oxide and metal being its top-selling products.
Magnetics
The Magnetics segment represents MP Materials' move into higher-value, downstream products. This part of the business takes the rare earth materials produced by the Materials segment and transforms them into magnetic precursor products and, ultimately, powerful neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets. These magnets are the key components that enable the efficient operation of electric vehicle traction motors, wind turbines, and other advanced technologies. The company is actively expanding its magnet production capabilities to meet growing demand.
What management is betting on now
MP Materials' management is focused on a strategy of vertical integration, meaning they aim to control the entire process from mining the raw materials to manufacturing the final high-value products. They are investing heavily in expanding their downstream capabilities, particularly in magnet production, to capture more value and secure long-term customer relationships. This strategy is also heavily influenced by national security interests, with significant government partnerships aimed at establishing a secure and domestic supply chain for these critical materials, reducing reliance on other countries.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$-53.29M
FY2024 Q4
$-11.17M
FY2025 Q1
$-93.67M
FY2025 Q2
$-32.66M
FY2025 Q3
$-92.54M
FY2025 Q4
$-109.26M
FY2026 Q1
$-79.28M
FY2026 Q2
$-223.49M
Revenue
$108.49M
Net income
$-20.30M
Diluted EPS
-0.11
Operating cash flow
$6.85M
Free cash flow
$-223.49M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$90.65M
Net income
$-7.97M
Diluted EPS
-0.04
Operating cash flow
$-1.91M
Free cash flow
$-79.28M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$52.69M
Net income
$9.43M
Diluted EPS
0.07
Operating cash flow
$-46.85M
Free cash flow
$-109.26M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$53.55M
Net income
$-41.78M
Diluted EPS
-0.24
Operating cash flow
$-42.05M
Free cash flow
$-92.54M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$57.39M
Net income
$-30.87M
Diluted EPS
-0.19
Operating cash flow
$-3.65M
Free cash flow
$-32.66M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$60.81M
Net income
$-22.65M
Diluted EPS
-0.14
Operating cash flow
$-63.20M
Free cash flow
$-93.67M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$60.99M
Net income
$-22.34M
Diluted EPS
-0.12
Operating cash flow
$30.48M
Free cash flow
$-11.17M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$62.93M
Net income
$-25.52M
Diluted EPS
-0.16
Operating cash flow
$-6.84M
Free cash flow
$-53.29M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $4.47 vs current price $37.81
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $70.94 (1,487.2% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $4.47 a share — about 88.2% below today's price of $37.81, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $471.0M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage -4.6x.
Net debt
$-471.02M
Interest coverage
-4.61x
MP Materials Corp.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
MP
BASELINE
MP Materials Corp.
Total debt $981.62M Interest coverage -4.61x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $237.53M Interest coverage 16.95x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while MP does not.
Total debt $678.34M Interest coverage -609.37x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $7.66B Interest coverage -2.45x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $10.36B Interest coverage 17.62x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while MP does not.
What you should know
The case for and against MP
2 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 36.1% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from 63.5% to -14.7% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -3.6% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
48.52x
P/B
3.44x
P/S
16.18x
EV/EBITDA
166.29x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
42.3%
Operating margin
-14.7%
Net margin
-14.6%
ROE
-3.6%
ROA
-1.5%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.41x
Current ratio
9.51x
Quick ratio
8.44x
Total debt
$981.62M
Total cash
$1.45B
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$305.38M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-9.3%
EPS TTM
-0.33
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$-83.96M
Free CF TTM
$-328.13M
FCF margin
-107.5%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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