One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$33.37 our estimate vs market $15.38
Wall Street consensus: $23.08 (-30.8% lower than our fair-value estimate)
54% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
nCino, Inc.
NCNO · NMS · Technology · Software - Application
Current price
$15.38
52-week range
$13.80 - $33.92
Market cap
$1.68B
Balance sheet
Distressed
0.21x Concerning
Net debt $223.90M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
1 Risk
2 rewards · 1 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 2.6% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
- Risk Net debt grew 1212.6% over 3 years.
What this company does
nCino, Inc.
nCino provides a single software platform that helps banks and credit unions manage their core tasks, like opening new accounts and processing loans. The company makes money by charging banks a subscription fee, creating predictable recurring revenue (income that comes in regularly, like a magazine subscription). This matters because nCino helps financial institutions replace slow, outdated systems, allowing them to work more efficiently and serve customers better in a digital world.
How the company got here
nCino was started in 2011 by a group of experienced bankers who were tired of using clunky, outdated software to do their jobs. [6, 11, 18] They decided to build a modern, cloud-based system from scratch to make banking operations like lending and opening accounts faster and more efficient. [18] The company grew by expanding to serve banks around the world and by acquiring other technology companies to add new features, such as digital mortgage processing. [1, 9] In 2020, nCino became a publicly traded company, selling its shares on the stock market to raise money for further growth. [1]
What it actually does
Think of nCino as providing a central operating system for a bank, similar to how your phone has an operating system that runs all its apps. [2] It sells a single software platform that replaces the patchwork of older, disconnected systems many financial institutions use for tasks like approving loans and opening new customer accounts. [9] This helps the bank's employees manage customer relationships, reduce paperwork, and speed up the entire process from a loan application to closing. [2, 5] The goal is to give banks a single, unified view of their customers and make their day-to-day work more efficient and less costly. [5]
Subscription Services
This is the company's main business and makes up the vast majority of its revenue (the money it brings in from sales). [8, 15] Banks and credit unions pay nCino a recurring fee, like a subscription to a streaming service, to access and use its cloud-based software platform. [25] This model provides a predictable stream of income for nCino. The fees are often tied to the size of the financial institution, meaning as the bank grows, the subscription revenue for nCino can also increase. [24]
Professional Services
This is a smaller, but necessary, part of the business. When a bank decides to use nCino's platform, it needs help installing the software, transferring data from its old systems, and training its employees on how to use the new tools. [25] nCino charges fees for these setup and implementation services. This revenue is not recurring like subscriptions; it's typically a one-time cost for the customer to get everything up and running.
What management is betting on now
The company is heavily focused on embedding artificial intelligence (AI) into its platform to automate routine tasks and provide smarter insights to bankers. [7, 22] Another key priority is expanding internationally, winning more large banks as customers in Europe and Asia. [10, 12] Management is also pursuing a 'land-and-expand' strategy, which means they aim to first sell one product to a large bank and then sell additional services over time. [7] Finally, the company is focused on increasing its profitability (the amount of money left after all costs are paid) and not just growing its sales. [8, 24]
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2025 Q2
$4.55M
FY2025 Q3
$5.10M
FY2025 Q4
$-10.37M
FY2026 Q1
$52.60M
FY2026 Q2
$12.59M
FY2026 Q3
$4.90M
FY2026 Q4
$12.48M
FY2027 Q1
$80.79M
Revenue
$159.41M
Net income
$13.64M
Diluted EPS
0.12
Operating cash flow
$81.41M
Free cash flow
$80.79M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$149.67M
Net income
$8.34M
Diluted EPS
0.07
Operating cash flow
$12.94M
Free cash flow
$12.48M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$152.16M
Net income
$6.54M
Diluted EPS
0.06
Operating cash flow
$5.07M
Free cash flow
$4.90M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$148.81M
Net income
$-15.26M
Diluted EPS
-0.13
Operating cash flow
$17.74M
Free cash flow
$12.59M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$144.14M
Net income
$5.56M
Diluted EPS
0.05
Operating cash flow
$54.32M
Free cash flow
$52.60M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$141.37M
Net income
$-18.61M
Diluted EPS
-0.15
Operating cash flow
$-10.02M
Free cash flow
$-10.37M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$138.80M
Net income
$-5.25M
Diluted EPS
-0.05
Operating cash flow
$5.78M
Free cash flow
$5.10M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$132.40M
Net income
$-11.04M
Diluted EPS
-0.10
Operating cash flow
$5.00M
Free cash flow
$4.55M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $33.37 vs current price $15.38
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $23.08 (-30.8% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $33.37 a share — about 116.9% above today's price of $15.38, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $223.9M. Interest coverage 0.2x.
Net debt
$223.90M
Interest coverage
0.21x
nCino, Inc. is healthier than 0 of 1 peers on balance-sheet leverage.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
NCNO
BASELINE
nCino, Inc.
Total debt $326.71M Interest coverage 0.21x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
What you should know
The case for and against NCNO
2 Rewards
1 Risk
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 2.6% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 1212.6% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
128.17x
Forward P/E
10.07x
P/B
1.66x
P/S
2.76x
EV/EBITDA
25.89x
PEG ratio
—
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
61.6%
Operating margin
13.2%
Net margin
2.2%
ROE
1.8%
ROA
1.1%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.33x
Current ratio
0.89x
Quick ratio
0.76x
Total debt
$326.71M
Total cash
$102.81M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$610.06M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
21.4%
EPS TTM
0.12
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$117.15M
Free CF TTM
$82.56M
FCF margin
13.5%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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