One-glance verdict
$8.04 our estimate vs market $31.46
Wall Street consensus: $42.25 (425.7% higher than our fair-value estimate)
291% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
NGVC · NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
Current price
$31.46
52-week range
$23.47 - $40.42
Market cap
$725.03M
One-glance verdict
Wall Street consensus: $42.25 (425.7% higher than our fair-value estimate)
291% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Balance sheet
Net debt $305.21M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
What this company does
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage sells natural and organic groceries, including produce, bulk items, and private label products like vitamins and supplements. Their money mainly comes from selling these products in their stores across the United States. This matters because it shows how well they are doing at getting people to buy their healthy food and wellness items.
1. "How the company got here" - Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 by Margaret and Philip Isely, starting as a door-to-door sales operation focused on nutrition education and healthy foods. - The first physical store, named "Vitamin Cottage," opened in Lakewood, Colorado, in 1963, inspired by a converted cottage-style house. - The company expanded gradually over the decades, building a reputation for natural and organic products. - In 2008, the name was changed to "Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage" to better reflect its broader grocery offerings beyond just vitamins and supplements. - The company went public on the New York Stock Exchange in July 2012, raising $107 million. - Natural Grocers has maintained a strong commitment to its founding principles, including quality, affordability, and nutrition education, which have guided its growth and operations. 2. "What it actually does" - Natural Grocers operates a chain of company-owned retail stores that specialize in natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, and natural body care products. - The company differentiates itself through strict product standards, offering only USDA-certified organic produce and prioritizing pasture-raised, non-confinement dairy and free-range eggs. - They also provide free, science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health choices. - Natural Grocers focuses on a smaller-store format designed for a convenient and easily shopped environment. - The company's product selection includes a wide range of items such as organic produce, private label products, dry goods, meats, dairy, body care, pet care, and household items. 3. "Natural and Organic Grocery Retail" - This is the primary business line for Natural Grocers, encompassing the sale of a wide variety of food products. - Customers purchase items like organic produce, private label grocery staples, dry, frozen, and canned goods, as well as meat, seafood, dairy products, and baked goods. - The company also offers beverages, including beer, wine, and hard cider, alongside prepared foods. - This segment is the largest contributor to the company's revenue, as groceries form the majority of its sales. 4. "Dietary Supplements and Vitamins" - This segment focuses on the sale of both name-brand and private-label dietary supplements and vitamins. - It includes a comprehensive range of vitamins, herbs, minerals, and specialized formulas. - While groceries form the bulk of sales, dietary supplements represent a significant portion of the company's revenue and are key to its differentiation strategy. 5. "Natural Body Care, Pet Care, and Household Products" - This segment includes a variety of non-food items sold in Natural Grocers stores. - Products range from cosmetics, skin care, and hair care to pet food and cleaning supplies, all adhering to the company's natural and organic standards. - These items complement the core grocery and supplement offerings, providing customers with a more holistic approach to wellness and household needs. 6. "What management is betting on now" - Natural Grocers is focusing on expanding its private-label offerings, which include a wide range of products from food to household goods, to enhance exclusivity and value perception. - The company is committed to deepening its role as an authoritative source for nutrition education, integrating it into its store experience and customer outreach. - Management is prioritizing disciplined expansion of its store base, aiming for profitable growth while maintaining operational consistency. - There's a strategic emphasis on digital transformation to complement its physical store presence, aiming to secure long-term growth and reach customers more effectively. - Continued commitment to strict product standards, sustainability, and community engagement remains central to its strategy.
Price history
Earnings history
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Is it cheap or expensive?
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $42.25 (425.7% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $8.04 a share — about 74.5% below today's price of $31.46, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Net debt $305.2M. Interest coverage 20.6x.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 20.6 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here.
Total debt $322.68M Interest coverage 20.58x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $2.11B Interest coverage 391.03x +1,800% vs NGVC Carries about 19.0x more debt cushion than NGVC.
Total debt $1.85B Interest coverage 2.76x -87% vs NGVC Carries about 7.4x less debt cushion than NGVC.
Total debt $526.58M Interest coverage 7.39x -64% vs NGVC Carries about 2.8x less debt cushion than NGVC.
What you should know
The numbers
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What you should know