One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$21.16 our estimate vs market $10.20
Wall Street consensus: $14.11 (-33.3% lower than our fair-value estimate)
52% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Novavax, Inc.
NVAX · NMS · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Current price
$10.20
52-week range
$6.20 - $13.39
Market cap
$1.68B
Balance sheet
Healthy
24.42x Strong cushion
Net cash $327.10M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
1 Reward
1 Risk
1 rewards · 1 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from -40.3% to -41.3% over 3 years.
What this company does
Novavax, Inc.
Novavax makes vaccines to stop serious infectious diseases, with their main money coming from selling their COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid, and a malaria vaccine called R21. This matters because it shows how the company is trying to bring in money from its medical innovations.
How the company got here
Novavax was founded in 1987 and has evolved over the years, with key milestones including the acquisition of the Matrix-M adjuvant platform in 2013, which has become a crucial component of its vaccine technology [2, 3]. The company faced significant challenges, particularly after clinical setbacks with its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in 2016 and 2019, which led to a period of financial and strategic stress [2]. Novavax gained prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic, receiving substantial U.S. government support for its vaccine candidate and achieving global authorizations [2, 3]. More recently, the company has been restructuring to shift from a pandemic-focused, capital-intensive model to a more partner-led, platform-based business [2]. A significant development in this strategic reset was a major licensing and co-commercialization agreement with Sanofi in 2024, which provided immediate cash and future potential while leveraging Sanofi's commercial scale [2].
What it actually does
Novavax is a biotechnology company that focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases [2, 18]. Unlike some larger pharmaceutical companies that aim to cover all major immunization areas, Novavax concentrates on specific vaccine opportunities, particularly in respiratory diseases and other infectious diseases where its adjuvant technology can enhance vaccine performance [2, 15]. The company's core technology platform includes its recombinant protein-based nanoparticle technology and its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant, which is designed to stimulate a stronger immune response [2, 15, 18]. Novavax's business model has evolved to include product sales, licensing, collaboration payments, milestones, and royalties, reflecting a shift towards a more partner-led approach [2].
COVID-19 Vaccines
Novavax's primary commercial product is its protein-based COVID-19 vaccine, known as Nuvaxovid in many markets and the Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine, Adjuvanted in the U.S. [2, 6]. This vaccine offers an alternative to mRNA vaccines and is designed to provide protection against COVID-19 [6, 11, 12]. The 2025-2026 formulation targets the JN.1 variant and is approved for individuals aged 65 and older, or those aged 12-64 with underlying health conditions that increase their risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 [4, 6]. Sanofi is now leading the commercialization efforts for Nuvaxovid, with Novavax eligible to receive royalties from sales [4, 12].
Malaria Vaccines
Novavax is also involved in the development and commercialization of a malaria vaccine, R21/Matrix-M [1, 5]. This vaccine, developed in collaboration with the University of Oxford and the Serum Institute of India, utilizes Novavax's Matrix-M adjuvant [1, 5, 10]. The R21/Matrix-M vaccine is notable for being a low-cost, high-efficacy malaria vaccine produced at scale and is authorized for use in children in malaria-endemic regions [1]. It has been launched in numerous countries, with millions of doses distributed, and is considered a critical tool for global public health [1, 5, 9].
What management is betting on now
Novavax's current strategy centers on becoming a durable vaccine company built around its differentiated protein-based antigens and the Matrix-M adjuvant platform [2]. The company aims to convert its pandemic-era operating model into a narrower, more partner-led business, focusing on maximizing the impact of its technology through strategic partnerships [2, 15, 19]. Key priorities include preserving its COVID-19 vaccine franchise, capturing value from combination respiratory programs, and expanding royalty and milestone streams from partner-led products [2]. Novavax is also prioritizing financial discipline, aiming for non-GAAP profitability by 2028 through diversified revenue streams and milestone-driven cash inflows, supported by a lean operating model [16].
Novavax's Technology Platform
Novavax's technology platform is built on two key elements: its recombinant protein-based nanoparticle technology and its proprietary Matrix-M adjuvant [2, 15, 18]. The recombinant protein technology involves creating copies of a virus's surface protein (antigen) to stimulate an immune response, similar to how some modern flu vaccines work [12]. The Matrix-M adjuvant is a key differentiator, designed to enhance the immune system's response to the vaccine, potentially allowing for lower antigen doses while maintaining efficacy and providing a more durable and broad immune response [1, 4, 15]. This platform approach allows Novavax to apply a common scientific strategy across different vaccine candidates and leverage its adjuvant technology in partnered programs [2, 7].
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$-175.09M
FY2025 Q1
$-186.72M
FY2025 Q2
$-127.71M
FY2025 Q3
$105.79M
FY2025 Q4
$-41.55M
FY2026 Q1
$-33.69M
FY2026 Q2
$-73.39M
FY2026 Q3
$-95.26M
Revenue
$68.30M
Net income
$-31.38M
Diluted EPS
-0.19
Operating cash flow
$-94.24M
Free cash flow
$-95.26M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$56.70M
Net income
$-53.39M
Diluted EPS
-0.32
Operating cash flow
$-72.81M
Free cash flow
$-73.39M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$139.51M
Net income
$-9.49M
Diluted EPS
-0.06
Operating cash flow
$-32.42M
Free cash flow
$-33.69M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$147.14M
Net income
$17.53M
Diluted EPS
0.28
Operating cash flow
$-39.48M
Free cash flow
$-41.55M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$70.44M
Net income
$-202.38M
Diluted EPS
-1.25
Operating cash flow
$107.80M
Free cash flow
$105.79M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$239.24M
Net income
$106.51M
Diluted EPS
0.62
Operating cash flow
$-127.46M
Free cash flow
$-127.71M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$666.65M
Net income
$518.65M
Diluted EPS
2.93
Operating cash flow
$-185.50M
Free cash flow
$-186.72M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$88.31M
Net income
$-81.03M
Diluted EPS
-0.41
Operating cash flow
$-173.16M
Free cash flow
$-175.09M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $21.16 vs current price $10.20
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $14.11 (-33.3% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $21.16 a share — about 107.4% above today's price of $10.20, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $327.1M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage 24.4x.
Net debt
$-327.10M
Interest coverage
24.42x
Novavax, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 24.4 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
NVAX
BASELINE
Novavax, Inc.
Total debt $295.26M Interest coverage 24.42x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $90.78M Interest coverage -11.92x -100% vs NVAX This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with NVAX.
Total debt $234.84M Interest coverage -1.95x -100% vs NVAX This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with NVAX.
Total debt $513.70M Interest coverage 1.89x -92% vs NVAX Carries about 12.9x less debt cushion than NVAX.
What you should know
The case for and against NVAX
1 Reward
1 Risk
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from -40.3% to -41.3% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
-56.67x
P/B
-7.76x
P/S
4.09x
EV/EBITDA
-24.39x
PEG ratio
1.32x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
5.3%
Operating margin
-41.3%
Net margin
-18.6%
ROE
—
ROA
-4.2%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
—
Current ratio
2.15x
Quick ratio
2.04x
Total debt
$295.26M
Total cash
$622.36M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$411.65M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-0.5%
EPS TTM
-0.52
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$-238.95M
Free CF TTM
$-250.19M
FCF margin
-60.8%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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