One-glance verdict
Within fair range
$119.69 our estimate vs market $86.14
Wall Street consensus: $121.33 (1.4% higher than our fair-value estimate)
28% below our estimate
Fundamentals snapshot
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
OLLI · NGM · Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
Current price
$86.14
52-week range
$73.31 - $141.74
Market cap
$5.21B
Balance sheet
Healthy
17.25x Strong cushion
Net debt $460.74M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
1 Risk
2 rewards · 1 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 3.1% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
- Risk Net debt grew 128.6% over 3 years.
What this company does
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet is a retailer that finds and sells excess inventory (products other companies ordered too many of) at very low prices. It makes money by purchasing a wide range of brand-name items for cheap and then selling them to customers for more, which can lead to strong profit margins (the portion of each sale that the company keeps as profit). Because Ollie's business depends on other companies' overstock, its success is tied to its ability to consistently find these deals for its stores.
How the company got here
Ollie's Bargain Outlet was started in 1982 in Pennsylvania by four founders, including Mark Butler, who believed that "everyone in America loves a bargain." The basic idea was to buy brand-name products that other companies couldn't sell—things like overstocks or items with packaging changes—and sell them to shoppers at a huge discount. After growing regionally, the company went public with an IPO (Initial Public Offering, the first time a company sells its shares to the public) in 2015 to raise money for faster growth. This strategy helped it expand from a local player into a national chain with hundreds of stores.
What it actually does
Ollie's is a discount store that sells a wide variety of brand-name goods for 20% to 70% less than you'd find in other retail stores. The company's specialty is buying "closeouts" (merchandise a manufacturer wants to get rid of) and excess inventory from other companies in bulk. This means the selection is always changing, creating a "treasure hunt" experience where you never know what you'll find. Shoppers can find items like housewares, food, toys, flooring, books, and seasonal products.
Discount Retailing
The company operates as one main business: selling discounted merchandise directly to customers in its physical stores. This single focus is how it makes all its money. Ollie's business model (the company's plan for making a profit) is built on what it calls "opportunistic buying"—swooping in to purchase entire lots of products when other manufacturers or retailers have too much. Because it buys goods for pennies on the dollar, it can maintain healthy gross margins (the profit made on each sale after accounting for the cost of the goods themselves). The company avoids selling online to protect these profits and focuses on getting shoppers into its no-frills, warehouse-style stores.
What management is betting on now
Management's main strategy is to keep opening more stores, with a long-term goal of more than doubling its current footprint to over 1,050 locations across the U.S. They are also focused on strengthening relationships with suppliers to ensure a steady flow of bargain merchandise, which is the lifeblood of the business. Another key priority is growing its customer loyalty program, called "Ollie's Army," which has millions of members and helps the company encourage repeat visits through special discounts. By acquiring store leases from struggling retailers, Ollie's can expand its physical presence quickly and cost-effectively.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2025 Q3
$5.59M
FY2025 Q4
$-35.38M
FY2026 Q1
$123.38M
FY2026 Q2
$1.96M
FY2026 Q3
$54.30M
FY2026 Q4
$-25.97M
FY2027 Q2
$20.03M
Revenue
$658.93M
Net income
$56.40M
Diluted EPS
0.92
Operating cash flow
$45.50M
Free cash flow
$20.03M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$613.62M
Net income
$46.17M
Diluted EPS
0.75
Operating cash flow
$4.76M
Free cash flow
$-25.97M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$679.56M
Net income
$61.31M
Diluted EPS
0.99
Operating cash flow
$80.71M
Free cash flow
$54.30M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$576.77M
Net income
$47.56M
Diluted EPS
0.77
Operating cash flow
$28.70M
Free cash flow
$1.96M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$667.08M
Net income
$68.55M
Diluted EPS
1.11
Operating cash flow
$147.76M
Free cash flow
$123.38M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$517.43M
Net income
$35.88M
Diluted EPS
0.58
Operating cash flow
$-4.37M
Free cash flow
$-35.38M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$578.38M
Net income
$48.98M
Diluted EPS
0.79
Operating cash flow
$43.88M
Free cash flow
$5.59M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $119.69 vs current price $86.14
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $121.33 (1.4% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $119.69 a share — about 38.9% away from today's price of $86.14, so the stock currently looks fairly priced.
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net debt $460.7M. Interest coverage 17.3x.
Net debt
$460.74M
Interest coverage
17.25x
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is healthier than 0 of 1 peers on balance-sheet leverage.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
OLLI
BASELINE
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.
Total debt $710.30M Interest coverage 17.25x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
What you should know
The case for and against OLLI
2 Rewards
1 Risk
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 3.1% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 128.6% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
21.32x
Forward P/E
16.83x
P/B
2.79x
P/S
1.91x
EV/EBITDA
14.98x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
40.7%
Operating margin
10.6%
Net margin
9.1%
ROE
13.8%
ROA
6.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.38x
Current ratio
2.32x
Quick ratio
0.61x
Total debt
$710.30M
Total cash
$249.56M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$2.73B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
10.9%
EPS TTM
4.04
EPS 5Y CAGR
33.4%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$313.34M
Free CF TTM
$194.66M
FCF margin
7.1%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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