One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$6.77 our estimate vs market $15.83
Wall Street consensus: $12.86 (90.0% higher than our fair-value estimate)
134% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.
XERS · NMS · Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Current price
$15.83
52-week range
$5.25 - $16.11
Market cap
$2.89B
Balance sheet
Distressed
0.86x Concerning
Net debt $94.98M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
2 Risks
2 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 26.2% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
- Risk Net debt grew 93.3% over 3 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -27.1% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. sells prescription medicines for chronic conditions like diabetes and a rare muscle disorder, with its main income coming from selling these drugs. This matters because it shows how well the company is doing at getting its treatments to patients and making money from them, which helps fund the development of new medicines.
How the company got here
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2005 with a focus on developing and commercializing therapies for chronic endocrine and neurological diseases. [16, 17, 33] The company's strategy has centered on leveraging its proprietary formulation technologies, XeriSol and XeriJect, to create ready-to-use, stable injectable medicines. [3, 16] A significant turning point was the 2021 acquisition of Strongbridge Biopharma, which broadened Xeris's product portfolio to include treatments for rare diseases, shifting the company from a single-product focus to a multi-product specialty pharmaceutical platform. [16] This strategic move has positioned Xeris to scale its current brands and advance its pipeline, aiming for sustainable growth and value creation. [16, 19]
What it actually does
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and sells prescription medications. [3, 17] They focus on creating therapies for chronic endocrine (hormone-related) and neurological (nervous system-related) diseases. [16, 17, 33] A key aspect of their approach is using special technology to make their medicines stable and ready to use, often avoiding the need for refrigeration or complex preparation steps before administration. [3, 16] This allows them to offer convenient treatment options for patients with serious conditions.
Gvoke
Gvoke is a medication developed by Xeris Biopharma designed to treat severe hypoglycemia, which is a condition where blood sugar levels drop dangerously low. [5, 14, 15, 22] It's a ready-to-use liquid form of glucagon, a natural hormone that helps raise blood sugar by signaling the liver to release stored sugar. [5, 14] Gvoke is available as an injection, making it a rescue treatment for people with diabetes who experience very low blood sugar and may need assistance from others. [5, 15, 20] The company highlights its ease of use and readiness compared to older glucagon treatments that require mixing before administration. [15, 16]
Keveyis
Keveyis is a prescription medication used to treat a rare genetic condition called Primary Periodic Paralysis (PPP). [2, 6, 12, 17, 22] PPP causes episodes of muscle weakness or temporary paralysis. [2, 12] Keveyis is the first drug approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) specifically for this condition. [12] It works by helping to reduce the number, severity, and duration of these debilitating episodes, offering patients greater control over their symptoms. [2, 12]
Recorlev
Recorlev is a medication used to treat endogenous hypercortisolemia, a condition where the body produces too much cortisol, a stress hormone. [4, 8, 9, 11, 17, 22] This excess cortisol is often associated with Cushing's syndrome. [4, 8, 10, 11] Recorlev is prescribed for adult patients with Cushing's syndrome when surgery is not an option or has not fully resolved the condition. [4, 8, 10] It works by inhibiting the enzymes responsible for producing cortisol in the body, helping to bring hormone levels back to normal. [4, 9]
XP-8121
XP-8121 is a medication currently in development by Xeris Biopharma for the treatment of hypothyroidism. [1, 17, 25] Hypothyroidism is a condition where the thyroid gland doesn't produce enough thyroid hormone, which is essential for regulating metabolism. [27, 31] XP-8121 is designed as a once-weekly subcutaneous injection (given under the skin) of levothyroxine, a synthetic form of thyroid hormone. [25, 27, 31] The goal is to offer a more convenient alternative to daily oral levothyroxine pills, potentially improving patient adherence and bypassing absorption issues related to the digestive system. [25, 27, 31] The company is advancing this candidate through Phase 3 clinical trials. [1, 17, 25]
What management is betting on now
Xeris Biopharma's current strategy focuses on scaling its existing commercial products—Gvoke, Keveyis, and Recorlev—to drive revenue growth and financial stability. [16, 19] A key priority is accelerating the growth of Recorlev, which management believes is on a path to significant revenue generation. [19, 23] Simultaneously, the company is advancing its pipeline, with a strong emphasis on XP-8121, a potential once-weekly treatment for hypothyroidism, which is seen as a major opportunity to address a large market. [16, 19, 25] Xeris aims to leverage its proprietary formulation technologies to create additional pipeline assets and potential partnership revenue, positioning itself for long-term value creation. [16]
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Revenue
$107.22M
Net income
$11.29M
Diluted EPS
0.06
Operating cash flow
$35.47M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$92.10M
Net income
$-31.10M
Diluted EPS
-0.18
Operating cash flow
$8.26M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$83.13M
Net income
$2.23M
Diluted EPS
0.01
Operating cash flow
$9.87M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$85.81M
Net income
$11.08M
Diluted EPS
0.07
Operating cash flow
$20.04M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$74.38M
Net income
$621.00K
Diluted EPS
0.00
Operating cash flow
$18.43M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$71.54M
Net income
$-1.93M
Diluted EPS
-0.01
Operating cash flow
$182.00K
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$60.12M
Net income
$-9.22M
Diluted EPS
-0.06
Operating cash flow
$-10.03M
Free cash flow
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Revenue
$60.10M
Net income
$-5.11M
Diluted EPS
-0.02
Operating cash flow
$1.98M
Free cash flow
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Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $6.77 vs current price $15.83
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $12.86 (90.0% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $6.77 a share — about 57.3% below today's price of $15.83, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $95.0M. Interest coverage 0.9x.
Net debt
$94.98M
Interest coverage
0.86x
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.9 times over. and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
XERS
BASELINE
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.
Total debt $226.07M Interest coverage 0.86x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $691.69M Interest coverage 5.51x +544% vs XERS Carries about 6.4x more debt cushion than XERS.
Total debt $154.91M Interest coverage 14.23x +1,562% vs XERS Carries about 16.6x more debt cushion than XERS.
Total debt $187.05M Interest coverage 1.28x +50% vs XERS Carries about 1.5x more debt cushion than XERS.
Total debt $182.90M Interest coverage -2.13x -100% vs XERS This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with XERS.
What you should know
The case for and against XERS
2 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 26.2% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 93.3% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -27.1% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
59.36x
P/B
59.29x
P/S
7.85x
EV/EBITDA
50.68x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
87.4%
Operating margin
15.8%
Net margin
-1.8%
ROE
-27.1%
ROA
7.4%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
4.63x
Current ratio
2.15x
Quick ratio
1.49x
Total debt
$226.07M
Total cash
$131.08M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$368.26M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
55.8%
EPS TTM
-0.03
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$73.65M
Free CF TTM
$27.93M
FCF margin
7.6%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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