One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$73.13 our estimate vs market $42.40
Wall Street consensus: $61.67 (-15.7% lower than our fair-value estimate)
42% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
XPEL, Inc.
XPEL · NCM · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Current price
$42.40
52-week range
$31.88 - $55.91
Market cap
$1.17B
Balance sheet
Healthy
754.81x Strong cushion
Net debt $22.88M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
1 Risk
3 rewards · 1 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 6.7% last year.
- Reward Returns 19.4% on equity, ahead of 83% of its peers.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 16.6% to 16.2% over 3 years.
What this company does
XPEL, Inc.
XPEL, Inc. makes and sells protective films and coatings, mostly for cars, to keep them looking good. Their money comes from selling these products and related services, like installation and training, through a mix of independent shops and online. This business model is important because it means they have a consistent stream of income from repeat customers and new product sales.
How the company got here
XPEL, Inc. was founded in 1997 and has grown into a global leader in protective films and coatings. Initially, the company focused on products like headlamp covers, but a key insight led to a pivot towards software for creating precise patterns for paint protection film (PPF). This innovation was crucial for the growth of the automotive protection industry. Over the years, XPEL has expanded its product offerings through both internal development and strategic acquisitions, moving beyond its original focus to include a wider range of protective solutions for vehicles and other surfaces. The company has also significantly expanded its global reach, now operating in numerous countries across multiple continents.
What it actually does
XPEL manufactures and distributes protective films, coatings, and related services. Think of them as a high-tech shield for surfaces, primarily cars, but also buildings. Their products are designed to protect against everyday wear and tear, like scratches from road debris, sun damage, and environmental contaminants. They offer a range of solutions, from films that go on car paint and windows to ceramic coatings that add an extra layer of protection and shine. Beyond the physical products, XPEL also provides software that helps installers precisely cut these films, along with training and support services.
Automotive Protection Films
This is XPEL's core business and what they are most known for. They offer 'Paint Protection Film' (PPF), which is a clear, durable film applied to a vehicle's paint to shield it from rock chips, scratches, and scuffs. They also provide 'Windshield Protection Film' to guard against chips and cracks, and 'Headlight Protection Film' to prevent yellowing and damage. These films are designed to keep a car's exterior looking new for longer. XPEL sells these products through a network of independent installers, car dealerships, and directly to consumers online.
Automotive Window Films
XPEL offers various types of window films for cars, including 'Window Tint' and 'Windshield Protection Film.' Window tint is applied to car windows to reduce heat from the sun and block harmful UV rays, enhancing comfort and protecting the interior from sun damage. The windshield protection film acts as a shield against road debris, preventing chips and cracks. These products are sold through the same channels as their paint protection films, reaching car owners looking to enhance their vehicle's comfort, style, and durability.
Ceramic Coatings
Ceramic coatings are a liquid-based protectant that, once applied to a vehicle's surface, chemically bonds with the factory paint. This creates a hard, durable layer that offers superior protection against UV rays, chemical stains, and minor scratches. Think of it as a super-powered wax that lasts much longer and provides a deeper shine. XPEL's ceramic coatings are designed to enhance a vehicle's appearance while making it easier to clean by repelling dirt and water.
Architectural and Other Films
While XPEL is best known for automotive applications, they also offer protective films for buildings and other surfaces. This includes 'architectural window films' for homes and commercial buildings, which can provide solar control (reducing heat and energy costs), safety and security (making glass more resistant to breakage), and decorative finishes. They also extend into areas like marine and bike protection, showcasing their versatility in applying protective film technology across different industries.
What management is betting on now
XPEL's management is focused on expanding its global reach and strengthening its supply chain. They are investing heavily in manufacturing capabilities, both in the U.S. and China, to gain more control over production and ensure flexibility. A key strategy is to get 'closer to the customer' by expanding their distribution networks, deepening relationships with car dealerships and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and offering a more comprehensive 'turn-key' solution for installers. This includes not just films and coatings, but also software, training, and support, aiming to become an indispensable partner for businesses in the vehicle protection industry.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$18.30M
FY2024 Q4
$4.70M
FY2025 Q1
$2.23M
FY2025 Q2
$26.95M
FY2025 Q3
$32.17M
FY2025 Q4
$1.59M
FY2026 Q1
$-2.34M
FY2026 Q2
$-34.32M
Revenue
$143.05M
Net income
$18.04M
Diluted EPS
0.65
Operating cash flow
$30.79M
Free cash flow
$-34.32M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$117.35M
Net income
$10.35M
Diluted EPS
0.37
Operating cash flow
$7.38M
Free cash flow
$-2.34M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$122.27M
Net income
$13.41M
Diluted EPS
0.48
Operating cash flow
$2.67M
Free cash flow
$1.59M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$125.42M
Net income
$12.94M
Diluted EPS
0.47
Operating cash flow
$33.15M
Free cash flow
$32.17M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$124.71M
Net income
$16.29M
Diluted EPS
0.59
Operating cash flow
$27.89M
Free cash flow
$26.95M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$103.81M
Net income
$8.59M
Diluted EPS
0.31
Operating cash flow
$3.23M
Free cash flow
$2.23M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$107.53M
Net income
$8.90M
Diluted EPS
0.33
Operating cash flow
$6.33M
Free cash flow
$4.70M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$112.85M
Net income
$14.89M
Diluted EPS
0.54
Operating cash flow
$19.56M
Free cash flow
$18.30M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $73.13 vs current price $42.40
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $61.67 (-15.7% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $73.13 a share — about 72.5% above today's price of $42.40, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net debt $22.9M. Interest coverage 754.8x.
Net debt
$22.88M
Interest coverage
754.81x
XPEL, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 754.8 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
XPEL
BASELINE
XPEL, Inc.
Total debt $63.55M Interest coverage 754.81x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $8.21B Interest coverage 1.47x -100% vs XPEL Carries about 515.2x less debt cushion than XPEL.
Total debt $680.16M Interest coverage 0.89x -100% vs XPEL Carries about 845.8x less debt cushion than XPEL.
Total debt $1.15B Interest coverage 7.84x -99% vs XPEL Carries about 96.3x less debt cushion than XPEL.
Total debt $1.65B Interest coverage 3.70x -100% vs XPEL Carries about 203.8x less debt cushion than XPEL.
Total debt $570.10M Interest coverage 1.65x -100% vs XPEL Carries about 458.2x less debt cushion than XPEL.
What you should know
The case for and against XPEL
3 Rewards
1 Risk
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 6.7% last year.
-
Returns 19.4% on equity, ahead of 83% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from 16.6% to 16.2% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
21.41x
Forward P/E
15.70x
P/B
3.82x
P/S
2.30x
EV/EBITDA
14.48x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
42.9%
Operating margin
16.2%
Net margin
10.8%
ROE
19.4%
ROA
10.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.20x
Current ratio
2.61x
Quick ratio
1.08x
Total debt
$63.55M
Total cash
$40.67M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$508.09M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
16.4%
EPS TTM
1.98
EPS 5Y CAGR
7.2%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$73.99M
Free CF TTM
$62.93M
FCF margin
12.4%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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