One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$75.77 our estimate vs market $47.20
Wall Street consensus: $61.67 (-18.6% lower than our fair-value estimate)
38% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
XPEL, Inc.
XPEL · NCM · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Current price
$47.20
52-week range
$31.50 - $55.91
Market cap
$1.30B
Balance sheet
Healthy
754.81x Strong cushion
Net debt $22.88M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
1 Risk
3 rewards · 1 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 6.7% last year.
- Reward Returns 19.4% on equity, ahead of 83% of its peers.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 16.6% to 16.2% over 3 years.
What this company does
XPEL, Inc.
XPEL sells protective films that act like a clear shield for car paint and windows to guard against scratches and chips. The company makes money not just from the film, but by creating an ecosystem (a network of connected products and services) that includes special software for cutting the film, training for professional installers, and car care products. This matters because it encourages car dealerships and installers to rely on XPEL for all their needs, creating loyal customers for the company.
How the company got here
XPEL was founded in 1997, originally as a software company that designed patterns for cutting protective films to fit different vehicles. A key turning point came in 2007 when the company started selling its own paint protection film, shifting from just providing the software to offering the whole product. The introduction of its 'self-healing' film in 2011, which can repair minor scratches on its own, was a major innovation that fueled significant growth. Under the leadership of its current CEO, Ryan Pape, the company expanded its product lines and international presence, transforming from a struggling software business into a major player in the automotive protection market.
What it actually does
Think of XPEL as a company that makes protective 'armor' for your car and other surfaces. Their main products are thin, clear films that are applied to a car's paint to protect it from rock chips, scratches, and sun damage, much like a screen protector for your phone. They also make films for car windows (window tint) that reduce heat and glare, as well as protective films for windshields. Beyond cars, XPEL offers similar protective films for boats, homes, and offices.
Product
This is the largest part of XPEL's business, making up about three-quarters of its sales. This segment includes the physical protective films the company sells, with the most significant product being paint protection film (PPF) for cars. It also includes automotive window tint, architectural window films for buildings, and ceramic coatings that provide an extra layer of protection and shine. The customers for these products are primarily professional installers, car dealerships, and distributors who then sell and apply the films to consumers' vehicles.
Service
Making up the remaining quarter of the business, this segment provides support and services related to the company's film products. A key part of this is the company's Design Access Program (DAP), a software that provides a huge database of patterns for precisely cutting the protective film to fit thousands of different vehicle models. This segment also includes revenue from installation labor at company-owned centers and fees for training professional installers on how to properly apply XPEL's films.
What management is betting on now
XPEL's leadership is focused on expanding its business globally, particularly in Asia and Europe, by acquiring local distributors and investing heavily in those markets. They are also working to sell more products to each customer, such as adding windshield protection or ceramic coatings to a paint protection film sale. Another key strategy is to deepen relationships with car dealerships and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), which are the companies that build the cars, to have their products offered at the point of sale or even installed at the factory. Finally, the company continues to innovate and broaden its product offerings, including developing new colored paint protection films and vinyl wraps.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$18.30M
FY2024 Q4
$4.70M
FY2025 Q1
$2.23M
FY2025 Q2
$26.95M
FY2025 Q3
$32.17M
FY2025 Q4
$1.59M
FY2026 Q1
$-2.34M
FY2026 Q2
$-34.32M
Revenue
$143.05M
Net income
$18.04M
Diluted EPS
0.65
Operating cash flow
$30.79M
Free cash flow
$-34.32M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$117.35M
Net income
$10.35M
Diluted EPS
0.37
Operating cash flow
$7.38M
Free cash flow
$-2.34M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$122.27M
Net income
$13.41M
Diluted EPS
0.48
Operating cash flow
$2.67M
Free cash flow
$1.59M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$125.42M
Net income
$12.94M
Diluted EPS
0.47
Operating cash flow
$33.15M
Free cash flow
$32.17M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$124.71M
Net income
$16.29M
Diluted EPS
0.59
Operating cash flow
$27.89M
Free cash flow
$26.95M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$103.81M
Net income
$8.59M
Diluted EPS
0.31
Operating cash flow
$3.23M
Free cash flow
$2.23M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$107.53M
Net income
$8.90M
Diluted EPS
0.33
Operating cash flow
$6.33M
Free cash flow
$4.70M
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Sources
Revenue
$112.85M
Net income
$14.89M
Diluted EPS
0.54
Operating cash flow
$19.56M
Free cash flow
$18.30M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $75.77 vs current price $47.20
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $61.67 (-18.6% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $75.77 a share — about 60.5% above today's price of $47.20, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net debt $22.9M. Interest coverage 754.8x.
Net debt
$22.88M
Interest coverage
754.81x
XPEL, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 754.8 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
XPEL
BASELINE
XPEL, Inc.
Total debt $63.55M Interest coverage 754.81x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $8.21B Interest coverage 1.47x -100% vs XPEL Carries about 515.2x less debt cushion than XPEL.
Total debt $680.16M Interest coverage 0.89x -100% vs XPEL Carries about 845.8x less debt cushion than XPEL.
Total debt $1.15B Interest coverage 7.84x -99% vs XPEL Carries about 96.3x less debt cushion than XPEL.
Total debt $1.65B Interest coverage 3.70x -100% vs XPEL Carries about 203.8x less debt cushion than XPEL.
Total debt $570.10M Interest coverage 1.65x -100% vs XPEL Carries about 458.2x less debt cushion than XPEL.
What you should know
The case for and against XPEL
3 Rewards
1 Risk
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 6.7% last year.
-
Returns 19.4% on equity, ahead of 83% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from 16.6% to 16.2% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
23.84x
Forward P/E
17.48x
P/B
4.52x
P/S
2.56x
EV/EBITDA
16.07x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
42.9%
Operating margin
16.2%
Net margin
10.8%
ROE
19.4%
ROA
10.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.20x
Current ratio
2.61x
Quick ratio
1.08x
Total debt
$63.55M
Total cash
$40.67M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$508.09M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
16.4%
EPS TTM
1.98
EPS 5Y CAGR
7.2%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$73.99M
Free CF TTM
$62.93M
FCF margin
12.4%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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