One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$50.16 our estimate vs market $9.85
Wall Street consensus: $8.88 (-82.3% lower than our fair-value estimate)
80% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
ADT Inc.
ADT · NYQ · Industrials · Security & Protection Services
Current price
$9.85
52-week range
$6.03 - $9.99
Market cap
$7.20B
Balance sheet
Distressed
2.85x Stretched
Net debt $7.75B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
0 Risks
3 rewards · 0 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 1.7% last year.
- Reward Returns 17.2% on equity, ahead of 33% of its peers.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
What this company does
ADT Inc.
ADT makes money by selling and installing security and smart home systems for homes and small businesses, and then they get paid regularly for the monitoring services. This matters because that steady stream of income from monitoring allows them to keep their business stable and plan for the future.
How the company got here
ADT has a long history, tracing its roots back to 1874 when it started as a telegraph company focused on security. Over the decades, it evolved with technology, moving from basic alarm systems to more sophisticated electronic security. A significant turning point was its acquisition by Tyco International in 2000, and later, its separation from Tyco and subsequent IPO as ADT Inc. in 2017, marking its return as an independent publicly traded company. This journey reflects a continuous adaptation to changing security needs and technological advancements.
What it actually does
ADT provides a range of security and smart home solutions designed to protect homes and small businesses. Think of them as the company that installs and monitors alarm systems, but also much more. They offer everything from traditional burglar and fire alarms to advanced smart home devices that can control lights, thermostats, and cameras, all accessible through a mobile app. Their services also include personal emergency response systems for seniors, ensuring help is available if a fall occurs.
Security Services
This is ADT's core business, focusing on protecting customers from threats like intrusion, fire, and other environmental hazards. They install and monitor systems that include sensors for doors and windows, motion detectors, smoke and carbon monoxide alarms, and water leak sensors. When an alarm is triggered, ADT's monitoring centers are alerted and can dispatch emergency services if necessary. This segment is the largest part of ADT's business, forming the foundation of its revenue.
Smart Home & Interactive Solutions
This segment encompasses the more modern, connected aspects of ADT's offerings, often integrated with their security services. It includes smart thermostats, lighting controls, and video cameras that customers can manage remotely via the ADT+ app. These solutions allow for greater convenience and control over a home's environment, in addition to providing security. This is a growing area for ADT as more consumers seek integrated smart home experiences.
Personal Emergency Response Systems (PERS)
ADT offers specialized devices and services designed for individuals who want an added layer of safety, particularly seniors living independently. These systems typically involve a wearable button that can be pressed to call for help in case of a fall or medical emergency. Some PERS devices also have fall detection technology built-in and can provide location services for added safety when the user is on the go. This segment caters to a specific need for reliable, immediate assistance.
What management is betting on now
ADT's management is focused on integrating its traditional security services with cutting-edge smart home technology and expanding its digital capabilities. They are investing in platforms like ADT+ to offer a more seamless and interactive customer experience, allowing for remote control and monitoring of security and home devices. The strategy also involves strengthening partnerships and exploring new channels to reach a broader customer base, aiming to make ADT a comprehensive provider of home security and automation solutions.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$425.99M
FY2025 Q1
$421.21M
FY2025 Q2
$526.27M
FY2025 Q3
$437.42M
FY2025 Q4
$323.53M
FY2026 Q1
$589.16M
FY2026 Q2
$620.13M
FY2026 Q3
$394.66M
Revenue
$1.35B
Net income
$150.58M
Diluted EPS
—
Operating cash flow
$440.42M
Free cash flow
$394.66M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.31B
Net income
$153.85M
Diluted EPS
—
Operating cash flow
$666.36M
Free cash flow
$620.13M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.28B
Net income
$168.37M
Diluted EPS
—
Operating cash flow
$638.09M
Free cash flow
$589.16M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.28B
Net income
$145.39M
Diluted EPS
—
Operating cash flow
$373.58M
Free cash flow
$323.53M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.30B
Net income
$145.13M
Diluted EPS
—
Operating cash flow
$480.06M
Free cash flow
$437.42M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.29B
Net income
$165.18M
Diluted EPS
—
Operating cash flow
$563.90M
Free cash flow
$526.27M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.27B
Net income
$140.25M
Diluted EPS
—
Operating cash flow
$466.63M
Free cash flow
$421.21M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.26B
Net income
$189.96M
Diluted EPS
—
Operating cash flow
$459.68M
Free cash flow
$425.99M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $50.16 vs current price $9.85
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $8.88 (-82.3% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $50.16 a share — about 409.2% above today's price of $9.85, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $7.7B. Interest coverage 2.8x.
Net debt
$7.75B
Interest coverage
2.85x
ADT Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 2.8 times over.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
ADT
BASELINE
ADT Inc.
Total debt $7.78B Interest coverage 2.85x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $567.47M Interest coverage 7.73x +171% vs ADT Carries about 2.7x more debt cushion than ADT.
Total debt $4.56B Interest coverage 2.40x -16% vs ADT Carries about 1.2x less debt cushion than ADT.
Total debt $3.90B Interest coverage 4.75x +67% vs ADT Carries about 1.7x more debt cushion than ADT.
Total debt $2.22B Interest coverage 8.51x +199% vs ADT Carries about 3.0x more debt cushion than ADT.
Total debt $5.14M Interest coverage 217.80x +7,542% vs ADT Carries about 76.4x more debt cushion than ADT.
What you should know
The case for and against ADT
3 Rewards
0 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 1.7% last year.
-
Returns 17.2% on equity, ahead of 33% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
Risks
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
13.49x
Forward P/E
10.00x
P/B
2.08x
P/S
1.39x
EV/EBITDA
5.54x
PEG ratio
—
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
80.7%
Operating margin
24.1%
Net margin
11.9%
ROE
17.2%
ROA
5.2%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
2.24x
Current ratio
0.69x
Quick ratio
0.42x
Total debt
$7.78B
Total cash
$36.01M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$5.22B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
5.1%
EPS TTM
0.73
EPS 5Y CAGR
52.2%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$2.12B
Free CF TTM
$1.71B
FCF margin
32.8%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
2.2%
Payout ratio
30.1%
Last ex-div date
2026-09-10