One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$15.43 our estimate vs market $30.75
Wall Street consensus: $40.67 (163.6% higher than our fair-value estimate)
99% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Alamos Gold Inc.
AGI · NYQ · Basic Materials · Gold
Current price
$30.75
52-week range
$26.92 - $55.41
Market cap
$12.87B
Balance sheet
Healthy
82.90x Strong cushion
Net cash $415.10M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
1 Risk
3 rewards · 1 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 34.3% last year.
- Reward Returns 23.6% on equity, ahead of 60% of its peers.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 3/10 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.3% (peer median: 0.6%).
What this company does
Alamos Gold Inc.
Alamos Gold mines and sells gold, which is a precious metal people buy. The money they make mainly comes from selling this gold, and it matters because this revenue is what allows them to pay for everything and hopefully make a profit for their owners.
How the company got here
Alamos Gold was formed in 2003 through the merger of two smaller companies, Alamos Minerals and National Gold. Its first major asset was the Mulatos mine in Mexico, which it acquired for a relatively small sum when gold prices were low. The company grew significantly by acquiring other gold mines, notably the Young-Davidson mine in 2015 and the Island Gold mine in 2017. These strategic acquisitions have shaped Alamos Gold into a significant gold producer with a focus on long-life assets in Canada and Mexico.
What it actually does
Alamos Gold is in the business of finding, digging up, and processing gold ore to produce gold. Think of them as a highly specialized mining company. They explore for new gold deposits, develop mines to extract the gold, and then process the ore to create a gold product, often called gold doré, which is then sold on the global market. While they primarily focus on gold, they may also recover some silver as a byproduct of their gold mining operations.
Young-Davidson
The Young-Davidson mine, located in Ontario, Canada, is a significant underground gold mine for Alamos Gold. It's known for having a long operational life, meaning it's expected to produce gold for many years to come. This mine contributes a stable amount of gold production for the company, providing a consistent revenue stream. It represents a key part of Alamos Gold's Canadian operations and its overall production.
Island Gold District
The Island Gold District, also in Ontario, Canada, is a major focus for Alamos Gold and is currently their largest revenue generator. This area includes the Island Gold mine and the more recently acquired Magino mine. The company is actively working to integrate these operations, aiming to improve efficiency and increase production. This district is seen as a primary growth engine for Alamos Gold, with significant potential for future gold output.
Mulatos District
Located in Sonora, Mexico, the Mulatos District is one of Alamos Gold's foundational mining areas. This district comprises multiple sources of gold ore and the necessary processing facilities to extract the metal. It has been a consistent producer for the company and represents a significant portion of their operations in Mexico. The company continues to explore and develop resources within this district to extend its mine life.
What management is betting on now
Alamos Gold's management is focused on growing the company's gold production significantly, aiming to reach 1 million ounces per year by 2030, up from just over 500,000 ounces currently. They are achieving this through expanding existing mines, particularly the Island Gold District, and developing new projects like Lynn Lake. A key part of their strategy is to ensure that this new production comes at a lower cost than their current operations, which would improve profitability. They also emphasize a disciplined approach to any potential future acquisitions, preferring to grow organically through exploration and development of their own assets.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $15.43 vs current price $30.75
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $40.67 (163.6% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $15.43 a share — about 49.8% below today's price of $30.75, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $415.1M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage 82.9x.
Net debt
$-415.10M
Interest coverage
82.90x
Alamos Gold Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 82.9 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
AGI
BASELINE
Alamos Gold Inc.
Total debt $226.50M Interest coverage 82.90x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $841.00M Interest coverage 20.69x -75% vs AGI Carries about 4.0x less debt cushion than AGI.
Total debt $539.80M Interest coverage 10.58x -87% vs AGI Carries about 7.8x less debt cushion than AGI.
Total debt $11.21M Interest coverage 12.91x -84% vs AGI Carries about 6.4x less debt cushion than AGI.
Total debt $331.15M Interest coverage 23.64x -71% vs AGI Carries about 3.5x less debt cushion than AGI.
What you should know
The case for and against AGI
3 Rewards
1 Risk
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 34.3% last year.
-
Returns 23.6% on equity, ahead of 60% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 3/10 years.
Risks
-
Insider ownership is only 0.3% (peer median: 0.6%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
12.20x
Forward P/E
11.30x
P/B
2.60x
P/S
5.65x
EV/EBITDA
8.54x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
70.1%
Operating margin
49.3%
Net margin
46.7%
ROE
23.6%
ROA
11.9%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.05x
Current ratio
2.01x
Quick ratio
1.26x
Total debt
$226.50M
Total cash
$641.60M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$2.28B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
30.1%
EPS TTM
2.52
EPS 5Y CAGR
185.8%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$795.30M
Free CF TTM
$271.10M
FCF margin
11.9%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.5%
Payout ratio
5.8%
Last ex-div date
2026-09-10