One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$37.31 our estimate vs market $256.82
Wall Street consensus: $303.62 (713.8% higher than our fair-value estimate)
588% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Ascendis Pharma A/S
ASND · NMS · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Current price
$256.82
52-week range
$188.07 - $282.15
Market cap
$16.90B
Balance sheet
Healthy
-1.69x Concerning
Net cash $406.67M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 98.0% last year.
- Reward Returns 118.8% on equity, ahead of 60% of its peers.
- Risk Forward P/E (25.7x) is higher than trailing (19.7x) - earnings are expected to drop.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.8% (peer median: 1.9%).
What this company does
Ascendis Pharma A/S
Ascendis Pharma A/S is a drug company that creates treatments for rare diseases, mainly selling medications like SKYTROFA for growth issues in children and YORVIPATH for adults with a specific gland condition. Most of their money comes from selling these approved medicines, which is important because it shows they can successfully bring new drugs from the lab to patients and generate revenue to fund future research. They are also working on other new treatments for rare conditions and cancer, aiming to expand their offerings.
How the company got here
Ascendis Pharma was founded in 2007 by a team of scientists and entrepreneurs who believed in the potential of their innovative TransCon technology platform. This technology allows them to create longer-lasting versions of existing drugs, aiming to improve patient outcomes and convenience. The company went public in 2015, raising capital to fund its research and development efforts. Over the years, Ascendis Pharma has focused on developing therapies for rare endocrine diseases, successfully bringing several products to market and expanding its global presence. Their journey has been marked by strategic partnerships and a commitment to addressing unmet medical needs in specific patient populations.
What it actually does
Ascendis Pharma is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes innovative therapies. They use a proprietary technology called TransCon, which modifies existing drugs to make them last longer in the body. This means patients might not need to take their medication as frequently, potentially improving their quality of life. The company focuses on developing treatments for rare diseases, particularly in the field of endocrinology (hormone-related conditions), and is also exploring treatments for cancer. Their goal is to create "best-in-class" therapies, meaning they aim to develop drugs that are superior to existing treatments in terms of effectiveness, safety, or convenience.
SKYTROFA (lonapegsomatropin)
SKYTROFA is a once-weekly treatment for growth hormone deficiency (GHD) in both children and adults. GHD is a condition where the body doesn't produce enough growth hormone, which is essential for growth and development. Before SKYTROFA, patients often had to inject themselves with growth hormone daily, which could be burdensome. Ascendis Pharma's TransCon technology allows for a longer-acting version, meaning a single injection per week can provide the necessary therapeutic effect. This product is a significant revenue generator for the company, particularly in the U.S. market.
YORVIPATH (palopegteriparatide)
YORVIPATH is a treatment for adults with chronic hypoparathyroidism, a rare condition where the parathyroid glands don't produce enough parathyroid hormone. This hormone is crucial for regulating calcium and phosphate levels in the body. YORVIPATH, developed using the TransCon technology, is administered as a once-daily subcutaneous injection. It aims to restore normal levels of parathyroid hormone, thereby helping to manage the complex symptoms associated with hypoparathyroidism. This product represents another key area of focus for Ascendis Pharma in rare endocrine diseases.
TransCon CNP (navepegritide)
TransCon CNP is a therapy being developed for achondroplasia, a genetic disorder that causes disproportionately short stature. It is a form of dwarfism. The drug is designed to stimulate growth in children with this condition. Ascendis Pharma is advancing this product through clinical trials, with the goal of offering a new treatment option for patients with achondroplasia. This program highlights the company's commitment to addressing rare genetic conditions with significant unmet medical needs.
What management is betting on now
Ascendis Pharma's management is focused on expanding the commercial success of its approved products, SKYTROFA and YORVIPATH, by increasing their reach in existing markets and entering new ones. They are also heavily invested in advancing their pipeline of new therapies, particularly in endocrinology rare diseases and oncology, leveraging their TransCon technology. A key strategic priority is to achieve "blockbuster" status for multiple products, meaning achieving annual sales of over $1 billion. Furthermore, the company is exploring new therapeutic areas, such as metabolic and cardiovascular diseases, by regaining rights to certain technologies, signaling an ambition for broader growth and diversification.
Price history
How the share price has moved
—
Loading price history…
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $37.31 vs current price $256.82
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $303.62 (713.8% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $37.31 a share — about 85.5% below today's price of $256.82, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $406.7M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage -1.7x.
Net debt
$-406.67M
Interest coverage
-1.69x
Ascendis Pharma A/S's profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
ASND
BASELINE
Ascendis Pharma A/S
Total debt $505.35M Interest coverage -1.69x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $4.19B Interest coverage 37.57x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while ASND does not.
Total debt $5.65B Interest coverage 2.65x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while ASND does not.
Total debt $3.38B Interest coverage -2.82x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $162.20M Interest coverage 12.90x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while ASND does not.
Total debt $3.00B Interest coverage 1.99x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while ASND does not.
What you should know
The case for and against ASND
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 98.0% last year.
-
Returns 118.8% on equity, ahead of 60% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Forward P/E (25.7x) is higher than trailing (19.7x) - earnings are expected to drop.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.8% (peer median: 1.9%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
19.68x
Forward P/E
25.70x
P/B
10.45x
P/S
16.14x
EV/EBITDA
62.65x
PEG ratio
—
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
91.3%
Operating margin
65.0%
Net margin
70.8%
ROE
118.8%
ROA
9.6%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.31x
Current ratio
2.99x
Quick ratio
2.23x
Total debt
$505.35M
Total cash
$912.03M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$1.18B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
141.4%
EPS TTM
13.05
EPS 5Y CAGR
—
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$60.52M
Free CF TTM
$50.99M
FCF margin
4.3%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
—