One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$6.24 our estimate vs market $49.37
Wall Street consensus: $57.73 (824.6% higher than our fair-value estimate)
691% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Axogen, Inc.
AXGN · NCM · Healthcare · Medical Devices
Current price
$49.37
52-week range
$21.93 - $52.91
Market cap
$2.95B
Balance sheet
Healthy
-1.02x Concerning
Net cash $328.60M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
2 Risks
2 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 18.5% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
- Risk Net debt grew 40.0% over 3 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -10.3% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
Axogen, Inc.
Axogen sells special medical products that help surgeons repair damaged nerves in the body. Their main money comes from selling these nerve repair products to hospitals and surgery centers. This matters because it helps people recover from injuries that affect their nerves.
How the company got here
Axogen was founded with a mission to help patients regain function after nerve damage. The company's journey has been focused on developing and refining technologies for peripheral nerve repair. A key turning point was the development of their processed nerve allograft, which offered a new solution for surgeons. Over time, Axogen has expanded its product line and its reach, aiming to become a leader in the field of nerve regeneration.
What it actually does
Axogen develops and sells medical products designed to help repair damaged nerves in the body. Think of it like this: when a nerve is cut or damaged, it needs to be reconnected for signals to travel from the brain to the muscles. Axogen's products act as bridges or guides to help these severed nerves heal and reconnect properly, allowing patients to regain feeling and movement.
Avance Nerve Graft
This is Axogen's main product, an 'allograft' (meaning it comes from a human donor, but is processed to be safe for another person). It's used by surgeons to bridge gaps where a piece of peripheral nerve has been lost. The goal is to provide a natural scaffold that encourages the patient's own nerve cells to grow across the gap and restore function. This segment represents a significant portion of Axogen's revenue, as it's a primary solution for complex nerve repair cases.
Axoguard Nerve Products
The Axoguard line includes products like the Nerve Connector and Nerve Protector. The Connector acts like a tiny, specialized tube that helps surgeons precisely align and join the two ends of a severed nerve, reducing tension during the repair. The Protector is used to wrap and shield the repaired nerve, creating a supportive environment for healing. These products complement the Avance Nerve Graft and are used in various nerve repair surgeries, contributing to the company's overall sales.
What management is betting on now
Axogen's leadership is focused on expanding the use of their existing products and developing new solutions for nerve repair. They are working to educate more surgeons about the benefits of their technologies and to gain wider adoption in hospitals and surgical centers. The company is also investing in research and development to potentially create even more advanced treatments for nerve damage, aiming to capture a larger share of the nerve repair market.
Price history
How the share price has moved
—
Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$8.06M
FY2025 Q1
$-13.44M
FY2025 Q2
$7.01M
FY2025 Q3
$1.70M
FY2025 Q4
$1.79M
FY2026 Q1
$-1.22M
FY2026 Q2
$6.33M
FY2026 Q3
$15.14M
Revenue
$75.83M
Net income
$2.33M
Diluted EPS
0.04
Operating cash flow
$16.54M
Free cash flow
$15.14M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$69.73M
Net income
$-1.52M
Diluted EPS
-0.03
Operating cash flow
$7.22M
Free cash flow
$6.33M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$61.46M
Net income
$-19.58M
Diluted EPS
-0.38
Operating cash flow
$1.56M
Free cash flow
$-1.22M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$59.90M
Net income
$-13.16M
Diluted EPS
-0.28
Operating cash flow
$3.04M
Free cash flow
$1.79M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$60.08M
Net income
$708.00K
Diluted EPS
0.01
Operating cash flow
$3.22M
Free cash flow
$1.70M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$56.66M
Net income
$579.00K
Diluted EPS
0.01
Operating cash flow
$7.73M
Free cash flow
$7.01M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$48.56M
Net income
$-3.83M
Diluted EPS
-0.08
Operating cash flow
$-13.18M
Free cash flow
$-13.44M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$49.40M
Net income
$450.00K
Diluted EPS
0.00
Operating cash flow
$8.73M
Free cash flow
$8.06M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $6.24 vs current price $49.37
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $57.73 (824.6% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $6.24 a share — about 87.4% below today's price of $49.37, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $328.6M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage -1.0x.
Net debt
$-328.60M
Interest coverage
-1.02x
Axogen, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
AXGN
BASELINE
Axogen, Inc.
Total debt $19.47M Interest coverage -1.02x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $2.00B Interest coverage 0.21x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while AXGN does not.
Total debt $29.09M Interest coverage 371.93x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while AXGN does not.
Total debt $93.13M Interest coverage 17.53x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while AXGN does not.
Total debt $0.00 Interest coverage 63.51x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while AXGN does not.
What you should know
The case for and against AXGN
2 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 18.5% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 40.0% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -10.3% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
—
Forward P/E
69.55x
P/B
5.94x
P/S
11.05x
EV/EBITDA
-376.37x
PEG ratio
99.04x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
74.2%
Operating margin
1.3%
Net margin
-12.0%
ROE
-10.3%
ROA
-2.3%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.04x
Current ratio
12.02x
Quick ratio
10.48x
Total debt
$19.47M
Total cash
$348.07M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$266.93M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
15.3%
EPS TTM
-0.63
EPS 5Y CAGR
—
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$28.36M
Free CF TTM
$-2.93M
FCF margin
-1.1%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
2010-01-27