One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$0.72 our estimate vs market $2.22
Wall Street consensus: $3.25 (354.3% higher than our fair-value estimate)
210% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BBAI · NYQ · Technology · Information Technology Services
Current price
$2.22
52-week range
$2.07 - $7.40
Market cap
$1.07B
Balance sheet
Healthy
-4.60x Concerning
Net cash $263.28M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
3 Risks
2 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 11.3% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -27.9% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from -32.4% to -53.0% over 3 years.
What this company does
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. creates smart software that helps big organizations make better decisions, especially those involved in national security and managing how goods move from where they're made to where they're needed (this is called the supply chain). The money they make comes from selling these AI tools and services to government and commercial clients. This is important because it means they're selling solutions for complex problems that require advanced technology to solve.
How the company got here
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has roots going back to 1988, but its current form emerged in 2020 when several analytics and data science firms were combined. The company then went public in December 2021 through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), which is a company created specifically to merge with another company and take it public. This move allowed BigBear.ai to access public markets and funding to further its growth and development in the artificial intelligence space. The company has since focused on consolidating its offerings and positioning itself as a specialized provider of AI-driven decision intelligence.
What it actually does
BigBear.ai develops and provides "decision intelligence" solutions, which essentially means they use artificial intelligence (AI) to help organizations make better, faster decisions. Think of it like a super-smart assistant that can sift through massive amounts of data, find patterns, and predict outcomes. Their technology is applied in areas where making the right decision quickly is crucial, such as national security, managing complex supply chains, and ensuring digital security. They aim to bring order to complex data, highlight potential problems, and forecast what might happen next.
Analytics
This is BigBear.ai's main area where it makes money, primarily from contracts with the U.S. government, especially defense and intelligence agencies. They offer AI-driven analytics and decision-support platforms, including their 'Observe, Orient, Dominate' (OOD) platform. These tools help government customers process vast amounts of data to gain insights for critical missions. This segment represents the largest portion of the company's revenue, underscoring its focus on government and defense applications.
Supply Chain and Logistics Solutions
BigBear.ai provides tools to help manage and optimize supply chains and logistics, which is the process of moving goods from where they are made to where they are needed. Their solutions offer real-time tracking of inventory, helping companies see exactly what they have and where it is. They also use predictive analytics, which is using data to forecast future events, to improve efficiency in areas like delivery routes and timing. This helps businesses make their operations smoother and more cost-effective.
Cybersecurity Solutions
In the realm of cybersecurity, BigBear.ai offers AI-powered tools to help protect systems and data from cyber threats. This includes analyzing software for vulnerabilities, testing systems for weaknesses, and providing ongoing security assessments. These services are particularly important for government agencies and defense organizations that handle sensitive information and operate in high-risk environments. Their AI helps to identify and address potential security breaches before they can cause harm.
Autonomous Systems Solutions
BigBear.ai also develops solutions for autonomous systems, which are systems that can operate independently, like self-driving cars or drones. They provide AI and machine learning (ML) capabilities that help these systems make intelligent decisions on their own. This involves enabling machines to perceive their environment, process information, and act without direct human control, which is crucial for advanced applications in defense and other industries.
Digital Identity Services
This part of BigBear.ai's business focuses on securing and managing digital identities. They offer solutions that use AI and advanced analytics for things like verifying who someone is, which is important for secure travel, global trade, and accessing digital services. Their 'Ask Sage Platform' is a generative AI tool designed for secure use in highly regulated areas, helping to automate tasks and improve decision-making within these secure environments.
What management is betting on now
BigBear.ai's leadership is focused on achieving profitable growth by emphasizing repeatable, software-driven offerings. They are looking to deepen their presence within the federal government sector, particularly in defense and intelligence, as these long-term contracts provide a stable revenue base. Additionally, the company is expanding into new areas like digital identity and computer vision, aiming to broaden its market reach and leverage its AI expertise across a wider range of applications and industries.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$-14.99M
FY2025 Q1
$-6.74M
FY2025 Q2
$-3.87M
FY2025 Q3
$-9.77M
FY2025 Q4
$-22.09M
FY2026 Q1
$-18.32M
FY2026 Q2
$-22.52M
FY2026 Q3
$-9.79M
Revenue
$43.58M
Net income
$-91.85M
Diluted EPS
-0.19
Operating cash flow
$-9.55M
Free cash flow
$-9.79M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$36.75M
Net income
$-25.75M
Diluted EPS
-0.05
Operating cash flow
$-22.21M
Free cash flow
$-22.52M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$34.44M
Net income
$-56.76M
Diluted EPS
-0.12
Operating cash flow
$-18.00M
Free cash flow
$-18.32M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$27.30M
Net income
$-5.83M
Diluted EPS
0.17
Operating cash flow
$-21.83M
Free cash flow
$-22.09M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$33.14M
Net income
$2.52M
Diluted EPS
-0.03
Operating cash flow
$-9.59M
Free cash flow
$-9.77M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$32.47M
Net income
$-228.62M
Diluted EPS
-0.71
Operating cash flow
$-3.87M
Free cash flow
$-3.87M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$34.76M
Net income
$-61.99M
Diluted EPS
-0.25
Operating cash flow
$-6.66M
Free cash flow
$-6.74M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$43.83M
Net income
$-146.49M
Diluted EPS
-0.50
Operating cash flow
$-14.81M
Free cash flow
$-14.99M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $0.72 vs current price $2.22
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $3.25 (354.3% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $0.72 a share — about 67.8% below today's price of $2.22, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $263.3M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage -4.6x.
Net debt
$-263.28M
Interest coverage
-4.60x
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 3 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
BBAI
BASELINE
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
Total debt $22.51M Interest coverage -4.60x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $59.47M Interest coverage -17.14x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $225.27M Interest coverage 407.50x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while BBAI does not.
Total debt $1.54B Interest coverage 8.10x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while BBAI does not.
Total debt $229.74M Interest coverage -3.14x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $8.46M Interest coverage -278.21x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
What you should know
The case for and against BBAI
2 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 11.3% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Return on equity was -27.9% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Operating margin compressed from -32.4% to -53.0% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.7% (peer median: 3.5%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
-11.10x
P/B
1.56x
P/S
7.52x
EV/EBITDA
-11.35x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
30.2%
Operating margin
-53.0%
Net margin
-126.8%
ROE
-27.9%
ROA
-6.7%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.03x
Current ratio
4.92x
Quick ratio
4.64x
Total debt
$22.51M
Total cash
$285.79M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$142.06M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-3.2%
EPS TTM
-0.32
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$-71.59M
Free CF TTM
$-42.48M
FCF margin
-29.9%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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