One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$0.75 our estimate vs market $2.90
Wall Street consensus: $4.00 (434.0% higher than our fair-value estimate)
287% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BBAI · NYQ · Technology · Information Technology Services
Current price
$2.90
52-week range
$2.59 - $9.39
Market cap
$1.39B
Balance sheet
Healthy
-4.60x Concerning
Net cash $296.44M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
3 Risks
2 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 3.1% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from -32.4% to -74.4% over 3 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -16.6% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BigBear.ai creates artificial intelligence (AI) software that helps organizations, primarily in U.S. defense and intelligence, make better decisions in high-stakes situations. Its technology is used for things like managing military supply chains (the entire process of getting equipment where it needs to go) and spotting cyber threats. Expanding to serve commercial businesses in logistics and digital identity is important as it adds new sources of revenue (money the company earns from sales).
How the company got here
BigBear.ai started in 1988 as a technology contractor primarily serving the U.S. military and intelligence agencies with data analysis tools. For decades, it grew by helping the government make sense of complex information. In 2020, two government-focused analytics firms, BigBear and NuWave, were combined, and the company went public on the stock market in 2021. More recently, it has acquired other technology companies to add new capabilities, like using AI to verify identities at borders and in airports.
What it actually does
BigBear.ai builds artificial intelligence software that helps organizations make better decisions in high-pressure situations. Think of it as a tool that can look at massive amounts of confusing data—like shipping logs, satellite images, or cybersecurity alerts—and quickly find the important patterns and predict what might happen next. This helps leaders in government and business see a clearer picture and choose the best course of action. The company doesn't just sell software; it also provides expert services to help clients integrate and use these complex tools.
National Security
This is the company's original and largest business, serving clients like the U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence agencies. These government bodies pay BigBear.ai to provide AI tools that analyze intelligence data, protect against cyber threats, and support military operations. For example, their software can help military planners understand complex battlefield situations or predict an adversary's next move. This segment forms the foundation of the company's revenue (the total money it brings in before costs).
Supply Chain & Logistics
BigBear.ai helps companies that move and manage physical goods, like manufacturers or shipping operators. These commercial customers pay for AI software that can predict supply chain (the entire process of making and selling goods) disruptions, optimize shipping routes, or manage warehouse inventory more efficiently. For instance, a company could use BigBear.ai's tools to create a 'digital twin' (a computer model of a real-world system) of their factory to test for problems before they happen. This is a key area of growth as the company expands beyond its government roots.
Digital Identity & Vision AI
This is a newer and fast-growing part of the company, built through recent acquisitions. It focuses on using AI, particularly computer vision (technology that lets computers 'see' and interpret images), for security and travel. Customers like airports or border control agencies pay for solutions that can verify a person's identity using biometrics (like facial recognition) or automatically scan cargo for threats. This business aims to make global trade and travel safer and more efficient.
What management is betting on now
The company's leadership is focused on shifting from a services-heavy business to selling more repeatable, high-margin (meaning more profit is kept from each sale) software products. They are heavily investing in generative AI, the same technology behind chatbots, to create secure tools for their government clients. A major priority is expanding their Vision AI capabilities in the global trade and travel markets, turning successful pilot programs into long-term contracts. Management is also aiming for international growth to reduce its heavy reliance on U.S. government contracts.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$-2.03M
FY2024 Q4
$-14.99M
FY2025 Q1
$-6.74M
FY2025 Q2
$-3.87M
FY2025 Q3
$-9.77M
FY2025 Q4
$-22.09M
FY2026 Q1
$-18.32M
FY2026 Q2
$-22.52M
Revenue
$36.75M
Net income
$-25.75M
Diluted EPS
-0.05
Operating cash flow
$-22.21M
Free cash flow
$-22.52M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$34.44M
Net income
$-56.76M
Diluted EPS
-0.12
Operating cash flow
$-18.00M
Free cash flow
$-18.32M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$27.30M
Net income
$-5.83M
Diluted EPS
0.17
Operating cash flow
$-21.83M
Free cash flow
$-22.09M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$33.14M
Net income
$2.52M
Diluted EPS
-0.03
Operating cash flow
$-9.59M
Free cash flow
$-9.77M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$32.47M
Net income
$-228.62M
Diluted EPS
-0.71
Operating cash flow
$-3.87M
Free cash flow
$-3.87M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$34.76M
Net income
$-61.99M
Diluted EPS
-0.25
Operating cash flow
$-6.66M
Free cash flow
$-6.74M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$43.83M
Net income
$-146.49M
Diluted EPS
-0.50
Operating cash flow
$-14.81M
Free cash flow
$-14.99M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$41.51M
Net income
$-12.18M
Diluted EPS
-0.05
Operating cash flow
$-1.90M
Free cash flow
$-2.03M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $0.75 vs current price $2.90
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $4.00 (434.0% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $0.75 a share — about 74.2% below today's price of $2.90, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $296.4M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage -4.6x.
Net debt
$-296.44M
Interest coverage
-4.60x
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 3 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
BBAI
BASELINE
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
Total debt $22.75M Interest coverage -4.60x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $59.47M Interest coverage -17.14x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $211.40M Interest coverage 407.50x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while BBAI does not.
Total debt $1.65B Interest coverage 8.10x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while BBAI does not.
Total debt $221.33M Interest coverage -3.14x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $5.44M Interest coverage -278.21x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
What you should know
The case for and against BBAI
2 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 3.1% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from -32.4% to -74.4% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -16.6% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.7% (peer median: 3.5%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
-14.50x
P/B
1.80x
P/S
10.56x
EV/EBITDA
-15.30x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
27.9%
Operating margin
-74.4%
Net margin
-65.2%
ROE
-16.6%
ROA
-7.6%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.03x
Current ratio
5.67x
Quick ratio
5.39x
Total debt
$22.75M
Total cash
$319.19M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$131.63M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-3.2%
EPS TTM
-0.02
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$-71.63M
Free CF TTM
$-42.48M
FCF margin
-32.3%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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