One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$19.34 our estimate vs market $2.66
Wall Street consensus: $3.79 (-80.4% lower than our fair-value estimate)
86% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Bumble Inc.
BMBL · NMS · Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Current price
$2.66
52-week range
$2.54 - $6.33
Market cap
$407.56M
Balance sheet
Watch
5.67x Adequate
Net debt $305.86M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
1 Reward
2 Risks
1 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
- Risk Net debt grew 77.0% over 3 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -76.9% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
Bumble Inc.
Bumble Inc. runs online dating apps, including its signature Bumble app where women make the first move, and the Badoo app. The company makes its money when users upgrade from the free version by paying for subscriptions or one-time special features. Therefore, its success depends on attracting a large number of people and convincing a portion of them to pay for these premium benefits.
How the company got here
Bumble was started in 2014 by Whitney Wolfe Herd, a co-founder of the dating app Tinder. She wanted to create a dating platform where women felt more empowered and comfortable by having them make the first move. The company grew quickly and later combined with another dating app, Badoo, under a parent company that eventually became Bumble Inc. In 2021, Bumble Inc. became a public company, meaning its shares are now traded on the stock market.
What it actually does
Bumble Inc. runs several mobile apps designed to help people connect with each other. Most people know them for their dating apps, but they also have features for finding friends and professional networking. The apps are free to download and use, but the company makes money when users pay for extra features or subscriptions to get more visibility and tools on the platform. This is known as a "freemium" model, where basic services are free and premium (paid) features are optional.
Bumble App
This is the company's main and most well-known product, making up the largest part of its revenue (the total money it brings in). It's a dating app where, in matchups between men and women, women have to send the first message, a feature designed to create a safer and more respectful environment. Users pay for subscriptions like Bumble Premium or one-time features to do things like see who has already liked their profile or get their profile shown to more people. The app has also expanded to include modes for finding friends (Bumble BFF) and professional networking (Bumble Bizz).
Badoo App and Other
Badoo is another major dating app owned by the company, and it's especially popular in Europe and Latin America. It was founded before Bumble and operates more like a traditional dating app, without the rule that women have to message first. This part of the business also makes money from subscriptions and in-app purchases for premium features. While still a significant part of the company, it brings in less revenue than the main Bumble app.
Bumble For Friends (BFF)
Originally a feature within the main Bumble app, Bumble For Friends (or BFF) is now also a separate app for finding platonic friendships. Users create a profile to connect with other people in their area who are also looking for friends, not dates. It works similarly to the dating app, where you swipe on profiles to find people you might get along with. This is a smaller but strategically important part of the business, aimed at expanding beyond just romantic connections.
What management is betting on now
The company's leadership is focused on reigniting growth by improving the user experience on its apps. A major priority is using artificial intelligence (AI, or computer systems that can perform human-like tasks) to improve matching and safety on the platform. They are also investing in marketing to attract new users and expanding into more countries, particularly in Asia and Latin America. The goal is to make their apps the go-to place for building all types of healthy and equitable relationships.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Revenue
$210.53M
Net income
$-110.06M
Diluted EPS
-0.84
Operating cash flow
$53.63M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$212.38M
Net income
$45.21M
Diluted EPS
0.34
Operating cash flow
$77.22M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$224.16M
Net income
$-490.18M
Diluted EPS
-3.96
Operating cash flow
$59.07M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$246.16M
Net income
$37.34M
Diluted EPS
0.33
Operating cash flow
$76.82M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$248.23M
Net income
$-253.74M
Diluted EPS
-2.45
Operating cash flow
$71.24M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$247.10M
Net income
$13.44M
Diluted EPS
0.13
Operating cash flow
$43.24M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$261.65M
Net income
$4.18M
Diluted EPS
0.09
Operating cash flow
$-5.40M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$273.61M
Net income
$-613.20M
Diluted EPS
-5.11
Operating cash flow
$93.49M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $19.34 vs current price $2.66
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $3.79 (-80.4% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $19.34 a share — about 627.1% above today's price of $2.66, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Watch
Net debt $305.9M. Interest coverage 5.7x.
Net debt
$305.86M
Interest coverage
5.67x
Bumble Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 5.7 times over. and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Watch
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
BMBL
BASELINE
Bumble Inc.
Total debt $459.82M Interest coverage 5.67x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $3.67B Interest coverage 6.17x +9% vs BMBL Has roughly the same debt cushion as BMBL.
Total debt $389.60M Interest coverage 7.16x +26% vs BMBL Carries about 1.3x more debt cushion than BMBL.
Total debt $10.17M Interest coverage 18.70x +230% vs BMBL Carries about 3.3x more debt cushion than BMBL.
Total debt $4.23B Interest coverage -4.36x -100% vs BMBL This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with BMBL.
Total debt $1.20B Interest coverage 21.03x +271% vs BMBL Carries about 3.7x more debt cushion than BMBL.
What you should know
The case for and against BMBL
1 Reward
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 77.0% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -76.9% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
2.83x
P/B
0.68x
P/S
0.46x
EV/EBITDA
2.93x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
72.9%
Operating margin
28.1%
Net margin
-58.0%
ROE
-76.9%
ROA
9.1%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.75x
Current ratio
1.62x
Quick ratio
1.39x
Total debt
$459.82M
Total cash
$153.96M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$893.24M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
6.1%
EPS TTM
-4.14
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$266.74M
Free CF TTM
$238.68M
FCF margin
26.7%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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