One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$25.34 our estimate vs market $11.04
56% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Bavarian Nordic A/S
BVNRY · PNK · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Current price
$11.04
52-week range
$8.67 - $13.00
Market cap
$2.49B
Balance sheet
Healthy
161.37x Strong cushion
Net cash $339.34M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 9.2% last year.
- Reward Returns 12.2% on equity, ahead of 66% of its peers.
- Risk Stock trades 498.5% above its 5-year average P/E.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.0% (peer median: 5.1%).
What this company does
Bavarian Nordic A/S
Bavarian Nordic is a Danish company that makes and sells vaccines to protect people from serious diseases like smallpox, mpox (monkeypox), and rabies. Most of its money comes from selling its smallpox and mpox vaccine to governments around the world, especially during public health scares. The company's success often depends on these large government contracts and its ability to develop new vaccines for future health needs.
How the company got here
Founded in 1994 through a partnership between Danish investors and German scientists, Bavarian Nordic began as a research and development-focused biotechnology company. A major turning point was its long-standing partnership with the U.S. government to develop and supply smallpox and mpox vaccines, establishing its expertise in public health preparedness. More recently, the company made strategic acquisitions, purchasing several travel vaccines from large pharmaceutical companies like GlaxoSmithKline and Emergent BioSolutions. These moves transformed it from primarily a government contractor into a more commercial business with a broader portfolio of products.
What it actually does
Bavarian Nordic is a vaccine company that develops, manufactures, and sells vaccines to protect people from a range of infectious diseases. You can think of them as having two main types of customers: governments who buy vaccines in large quantities to stockpile for public health emergencies, and travelers who get vaccinated before visiting parts of the world where certain diseases are common. Their work covers everything from the initial scientific research to producing the final vaccine doses and selling them globally.
Public Preparedness
This part of the business focuses on selling vaccines to governments and international organizations for their national stockpiles. The main products here are vaccines for mpox and smallpox, which are bought to prepare for potential outbreaks or public health threats. This segment's revenue (the total money earned before expenses) can be unpredictable, as it often depends on global health emergencies and government contracts. Historically this was the company's main business, but it now makes up a little less than half of its total revenue.
Travel Health
This segment sells vaccines to people traveling to areas where they might be exposed to specific diseases. The products include vaccines for rabies, tick-borne encephalitis, typhoid fever, and cholera. Individuals, through their doctors or travel clinics, are the ultimate customers for these vaccines. This business provides a more regular and predictable stream of revenue compared to the Public Preparedness segment and now accounts for roughly half of the company's sales.
What management is betting on now
The company's main focus is to continue growing its Travel Health business to create a more stable and predictable source of income. A key part of this strategy is the recent launch of a new vaccine for chikungunya, a virus spread by mosquitoes. They are also investing in research and development (the process of creating new products) for future vaccines, including candidates for Lyme disease and the Epstein-Barr virus. By expanding their portfolio and manufacturing capabilities, they aim to solidify their position as a specialized vaccine company.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $25.34 vs current price $11.04
Our most-likely fair value is $25.34 a share — about 129.5% above today's price of $11.04, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $339.3M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage 161.4x.
Net debt
$-339.34M
Interest coverage
161.37x
Bavarian Nordic A/S's profit covers its interest bill about 161.4 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
BVNRY
BASELINE
Bavarian Nordic A/S
Total debt $20.01M Interest coverage 161.37x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $297.32M Interest coverage 24.42x -85% vs BVNRY Carries about 6.6x less debt cushion than BVNRY.
Total debt $93.27M Interest coverage -11.92x -100% vs BVNRY This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with BVNRY.
Total debt $239.69M Interest coverage -1.95x -100% vs BVNRY This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with BVNRY.
What you should know
The case for and against BVNRY
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 9.2% last year.
-
Returns 12.2% on equity, ahead of 66% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 3/10 years.
Risks
-
Stock trades 498.5% above its 5-year average P/E.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.0% (peer median: 5.1%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
11.27x
Forward P/E
—
P/B
1.25x
P/S
0.39x
EV/EBITDA
0.16x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
50.2%
Operating margin
36.8%
Net margin
24.3%
ROE
12.2%
ROA
5.0%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.01x
Current ratio
6.53x
Quick ratio
3.83x
Total debt
$20.01M
Total cash
$359.35M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$965.84M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
25.6%
EPS TTM
0.98
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$414.78M
Free CF TTM
$207.64M
FCF margin
21.5%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
2020-03-27