One-glance verdict
$28.56 our estimate vs market $12.27
57% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
BVNRY · PNK · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Current price
$12.27
52-week range
$8.67 - $12.72
Market cap
$2.75B
One-glance verdict
57% below our estimate, below the bear case
Balance sheet
Net cash $333.08M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
What this company does
Bavarian Nordic A/S makes vaccines that protect people from serious diseases like smallpox and rabies, with most of its money coming from selling these life-saving shots globally. This is important because it shows the company's core business is providing essential health solutions that governments and people rely on.
1. "How the company got here" Bavarian Nordic A/S was founded in 1992 and has evolved into a fully integrated biotechnology company focused on developing, manufacturing, and selling vaccines. The company's journey included a significant shift from a traditional biotech model to an industrial-scale pharmaceutical company, partly driven by substantial contracts with the U.S. government for its smallpox vaccine. A key turning point was the acquisition of rights to develop a prostate cancer vaccine from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) in 2008, which has since progressed through clinical trials. Bavarian Nordic has also strategically acquired other vaccine portfolios, such as travel vaccines for rabies and tick-borne encephalitis from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) in 2019, and vaccines for typhoid fever and cholera from Emergent BioSolutions in 2023, broadening its commercial offerings. 2. "What it actually does" Bavarian Nordic develops, manufactures, and sells vaccines designed to prevent life-threatening infectious diseases and, in some cases, treat cancer. They specialize in live virus vaccine technology, utilizing their proprietary MVA-BN platform, which is derived from a modified vaccinia Ankara virus that cannot replicate in human cells, offering a favorable safety profile. The company's products are supplied to governments for public health preparedness, as well as to travelers and individuals at risk for specific diseases. 3. "Smallpox and Mpox Vaccines" This segment focuses on Bavarian Nordic's non-replicating vaccines for smallpox and mpox (formerly known as monkeypox). These vaccines, marketed under names like JYNNEOS, IMVAMUNE, and IMVANEX, are crucial for public health preparedness and have been supplied to government stockpiles, particularly in the United States and Canada. The MVA-BN technology is central to these vaccines, providing a safe and effective option for disease prevention. This business line is a significant contributor, especially through government contracts for emergency use and preparedness. 4. "Travel Vaccines" Bavarian Nordic offers a portfolio of vaccines for travelers, protecting against diseases like rabies, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), cholera, and typhoid fever. Products in this category include Rabipur/RabAvert (rabies), Encepur (TBE), Vaxchora (cholera), and Vivotif (typhoid). This segment has seen strategic growth through acquisitions and is becoming a larger part of the company's revenue, with projections indicating it will surpass the public preparedness business in the future. 5. "Chikungunya Vaccine" This business line centers on Bavarian Nordic's chikungunya vaccine, VIMKUNYA, which has received marketing authorization in several regions. The company has established partnerships for its distribution, including an agreement with Eurofarma for Brazil. This vaccine represents a newer addition to their commercial portfolio and is part of the company's strategic focus on expanding its travel health offerings. 6. "What management is betting on now" Bavarian Nordic's current strategy involves a dual focus on strengthening its position in public preparedness through its smallpox and mpox vaccines, while simultaneously expanding its commercial reach in the travel vaccine market. Management aims to leverage its proprietary MVA-BN technology platform for both existing and pipeline products, including its prostate cancer vaccine. The company is also prioritizing the global launch and distribution of its chikungunya vaccine and exploring new collaborations and potential partnerships to maximize the commercial potential of its portfolio. A key strategic shift is the increasing emphasis on the Travel Health business, which is expected to become the larger revenue generator compared to the Public Preparedness segment.
Price history
Is it cheap or expensive?
Our most-likely fair value is $28.56 a share — about 132.8% above today's price of $12.27, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Net cash $333.1M - more cash than debt. Interest coverage 161.4x.
Bavarian Nordic A/S's profit covers its interest bill about 161.4 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Total debt $19.65M Interest coverage 161.37x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $295.26M Interest coverage 24.42x -85% vs BVNRY Carries about 6.6x less debt cushion than BVNRY.
Total debt $90.78M Interest coverage -11.92x -100% vs BVNRY This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with BVNRY.
Total debt $235.11M Interest coverage -1.95x -100% vs BVNRY This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with BVNRY.
What you should know
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What you should know