One-glance verdict
$39.56 our estimate vs market $29.00
Wall Street consensus: $32.17 (-18.7% lower than our fair-value estimate)
27% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
CABGY · PNK · Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers
Current price
$29.00
52-week range
$23.42 - $32.16
Market cap
$19.16B
One-glance verdict
Wall Street consensus: $32.17 (-18.7% lower than our fair-value estimate)
27% below our estimate, below the bear case
Balance sheet
Net debt $7.56B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
What this company does
Carlsberg A/S is a well-known brewer that sells beer, soft drinks, and other drinks across Europe and Asia. Their main source of money comes from selling these beverages, and keeping their sales strong and their costs managed helps them make a profit, which is important for anyone thinking about investing in the company.
1. "How the company got here" Carlsberg A/S has a rich history dating back to 1847 when J. C. Jacobsen founded the company in Copenhagen, Denmark. Jacobsen was a pioneer, deeply interested in brewing science and dedicated to improving beer quality. He even established the world's first brewery-owned research facility, the Carlsberg Laboratory, in 1875, which led to significant advancements in brewing, such as the use of pure yeast cultures. The company's growth has been marked by strategic mergers, notably with Tuborg in 1970, forming United Breweries A/S. Carlsberg has also expanded its global footprint through international investments and acquisitions, establishing breweries and partnerships in various countries across Europe and Asia. The Carlsberg Foundation, established by J. C. Jacobsen, remains a majority owner, supporting scientific research, arts, and culture. 2. "What it actually does" Carlsberg A/S is a global producer and marketer of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, with a primary focus on beer. The company offers a diverse portfolio that includes lagers, pilsners, craft and specialty beers, as well as alcohol-free options and ciders. Carlsberg's products are available in over 125 markets worldwide, and it operates through a network of breweries and subsidiaries. The company's strategy emphasizes both global brands and strong local offerings to cater to diverse consumer preferences. 3. "Beer and Beyond Beer" Carlsberg's business is primarily centered around its extensive beer portfolio, which includes a wide range of brands catering to different market segments. This core business encompasses mainstream lagers and pilsners, as well as a growing segment of premium and craft beers. The company also offers a significant range of alcohol-free brews, aligning with evolving consumer preferences for healthier options. Beyond its traditional beer offerings, Carlsberg is actively expanding its "Beyond Beer" category, which includes products like ciders and other ready-to-drink beverages, aiming to capture growth in adjacent markets. This diversified approach allows Carlsberg to leverage its brewing expertise across a broader beverage landscape. 4. "Geographical Focus" Carlsberg operates across several key geographical regions, with significant presence in Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and Asia. The company has a strategic focus on accelerating growth in Asian markets, particularly in China, Vietnam, and India, where it aims to expand its premium portfolio and capture new opportunities. In Western Europe, the strategy involves premiumizing its offerings and improving profit margins, while in Central and Eastern Europe, the focus is on driving value and building scale. This geographical diversification helps Carlsberg to balance market dynamics and capitalize on growth potential across different economic landscapes. 5. "What management is betting on now" Carlsberg's current strategy, "Accelerate SAIL," launched in February 2024, is focused on driving long-term growth and enhancing shareholder value. Key priorities include strengthening its premium product portfolio and expanding its presence in Asian growth markets. The company is also investing in digital transformation and supply chain management to improve efficiency and drive revenue growth. Furthermore, Carlsberg is committed to fostering a more growth-oriented corporate culture and prioritizing sustainability through its "Together Towards ZERO and Beyond" program, aiming for ambitious targets in areas like carbon emissions and waste reduction. Management is focused on optimizing operations and supply chain efficiencies to restore profit margins and fund future investments.
Price history
Is it cheap or expensive?
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $32.17 (-18.7% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $39.56 a share — about 36.4% above today's price of $29.00, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Net debt $7.6B. Interest coverage 4.3x.
Carlsberg A/S's profit covers its interest bill about 4.3 times over.
Total debt $9.01B Interest coverage 4.32x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $72.73B Interest coverage 4.05x -6% vs CABGY Has roughly the same debt cushion as CABGY.
Total debt $23.13B Interest coverage 5.17x +20% vs CABGY Carries about 1.2x more debt cushion than CABGY.
Total debt $10.32B Interest coverage 7.92x +83% vs CABGY Carries about 1.8x more debt cushion than CABGY.
Total debt $7.91B Interest coverage 6.58x +52% vs CABGY Carries about 1.5x more debt cushion than CABGY.
Total debt $10.77B Interest coverage 6.52x +51% vs CABGY Carries about 1.5x more debt cushion than CABGY.
What you should know
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What you should know