One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$124.98 our estimate vs market $13.27
Wall Street consensus: $20.00 (-84.0% lower than our fair-value estimate)
89% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Clearwater Paper Corporation
CLW · NYQ · Basic Materials · Paper & Paper Products
Current price
$13.27
52-week range
$11.73 - $23.59
Market cap
$214.20M
Balance sheet
Distressed
0.74x Concerning
Net debt $545.10M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
1 Reward
2 Risks
1 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 6/10 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 8.4% to -3.2% over 3 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -4.1% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
Clearwater Paper Corporation
Clearwater Paper Corporation makes paperboard packaging, which is like the sturdy cardboard used for things like cereal boxes and milk cartons. Most of their money comes from selling this paperboard to other companies that turn it into finished products. This matters because it shows they are a key part of the process for getting everyday items to consumers.
How the company got here
Clearwater Paper Corporation has a long history, tracing its roots back to 1926. It has evolved over the decades, shifting its focus to become a key player in the paper and packaging industry. The company's journey has involved strategic decisions to specialize in certain types of paper products, particularly those used for packaging, which has shaped its current business structure and market position.
What it actually does
Clearwater Paper Corporation makes and sells paperboard, which is a thick, sturdy type of paper used for packaging. Think of the cardboard boxes that hold your cereal, frozen foods, or even the cartons that hold milk or juice. They also produce paper used for commercial printing, like brochures or flyers. Their customers are typically other businesses that convert this paperboard into finished packaging products for various consumer goods.
Paperboard
This segment is the core of Clearwater Paper's business, focusing on the production of solid bleached sulfate (SBS) paperboard. This type of paperboard is known for its strength and printability, making it ideal for a wide range of packaging applications. It's used to create folding cartons for items like pharmaceuticals and cosmetics, as well as packaging for food and beverages, including liquid packaging for milk and juice, and materials for cups and plates. This business line represents a significant portion of the company's overall revenue.
What management is betting on now
Clearwater Paper's management is focused on optimizing its paperboard operations and ensuring it meets the growing demand for sustainable packaging solutions. A key priority is likely to invest in its manufacturing facilities to improve efficiency and product quality. They are also probably looking for ways to innovate within the paperboard segment, perhaps by developing new types of paperboard or enhancing the environmental profile of their products to appeal to a wider range of customers and reduce their environmental impact.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$-71.10M
FY2025 Q1
$-31.20M
FY2025 Q2
$-51.10M
FY2025 Q3
$15.70M
FY2025 Q4
$-9.90M
FY2026 Q1
$-8.60M
FY2026 Q2
$59.40M
FY2026 Q3
$15.90M
Revenue
$384.90M
Net income
$-1.60M
Diluted EPS
-0.10
Operating cash flow
$30.60M
Free cash flow
$15.90M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$374.80M
Net income
$-21.50M
Diluted EPS
-1.33
Operating cash flow
$69.00M
Free cash flow
$59.40M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$360.30M
Net income
$-12.80M
Diluted EPS
-0.80
Operating cash flow
$500.00K
Free cash flow
$-8.60M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$386.40M
Net income
$38.30M
Diluted EPS
2.36
Operating cash flow
$5.00M
Free cash flow
$-9.90M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$399.00M
Net income
$-53.30M
Diluted EPS
-3.30
Operating cash flow
$34.00M
Free cash flow
$15.70M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$391.80M
Net income
$2.70M
Diluted EPS
0.17
Operating cash flow
$-28.20M
Free cash flow
$-51.10M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$378.20M
Net income
$-6.30M
Diluted EPS
-0.38
Operating cash flow
$1.50M
Free cash flow
$-31.20M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$387.10M
Net income
$199.10M
Diluted EPS
11.91
Operating cash flow
$-56.20M
Free cash flow
$-71.10M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $124.98 vs current price $13.27
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $20.00 (-84.0% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $124.98 a share — about 841.8% above today's price of $13.27, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $545.1M. Interest coverage 0.7x.
Net debt
$545.10M
Interest coverage
0.74x
Clearwater Paper Corporation's profit covers its interest bill about 0.7 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
CLW
BASELINE
Clearwater Paper Corporation
Total debt $580.80M Interest coverage 0.74x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $434.90M Interest coverage -0.71x -100% vs CLW This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with CLW.
Total debt $5.70B Interest coverage 3.84x +419% vs CLW Carries about 5.2x more debt cushion than CLW.
Total debt $1.03B Interest coverage 5.53x +648% vs CLW Carries about 7.5x more debt cushion than CLW.
What you should know
The case for and against CLW
1 Reward
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 6/10 years.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from 8.4% to -3.2% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -4.1% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
-8.04x
P/B
0.27x
P/S
0.14x
EV/EBITDA
42.66x
PEG ratio
3.21x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
0.6%
Operating margin
-3.2%
Net margin
0.2%
ROE
-4.1%
ROA
-2.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.73x
Current ratio
1.47x
Quick ratio
0.39x
Total debt
$580.80M
Total cash
$35.70M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$1.51B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-3.2%
EPS TTM
-2.03
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$105.10M
Free CF TTM
$-76.50M
FCF margin
-5.1%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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