One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$42.94 our estimate vs market $32.67
Wall Street consensus: $31.50 (-26.6% lower than our fair-value estimate)
24% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
DHL AG
DHLGY · OID · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Current price
$32.67
52-week range
$22.17 - $33.70
Market cap
$72.53B
Balance sheet
Stretched
4.80x Stretched
Net debt $27.00B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
3 Risks
3 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Returns 18.1% on equity, ahead of 33% of its peers.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
- Risk Stock trades 26.2% above its 5-year average P/E.
- Risk Net debt grew 25.3% over 3 years.
What this company does
DHL AG
DHL is a giant global delivery company that helps businesses move products and packages all over the world. It makes money by charging fees for everything from urgent international shipping to managing the entire supply chain (the complex process of getting a product from the factory to the customer) for other large companies. Because its business thrives when more goods are being bought and sold globally, DHL's performance is often seen as a good indicator of the world's economic health.
How the company got here
DHL started in 1969 by delivering shipping documents by air between San Francisco and Honolulu, a service that helped clear customs faster. This new idea of international overnight delivery was a big success, and the company grew rapidly across the globe through the 1970s. In the early 2000s, Deutsche Post, Germany's national postal service, acquired DHL, combining its own mail and parcel services with DHL's global express network. This created the global logistics giant we see today, operating under the DHL brand worldwide while keeping the Deutsche Post brand for mail in Germany.
What it actually does
Think of DHL as a global delivery and logistics company that helps people and businesses send and receive everything from urgent documents to large cargo. If you've ever ordered something online from another country, there's a good chance DHL handled its journey. They operate a massive network of airplanes, trucks, and warehouses to move goods from point A to point B. Beyond just shipping, they also offer more complex services like managing a company's entire supply chain (the process of getting a product from the factory to the customer).
Express
This is DHL's premium, high-speed international shipping service for time-sensitive documents and parcels. Businesses and individuals pay for this service when they need something to arrive on a specific day, often overnight, using DHL's own fleet of aircraft. This division handles everything from customs clearance to door-to-door delivery, making it a one-stop shop for urgent international shipments. It's a major part of the company, known for its speed and reliability across more than 220 countries and territories.
Global Forwarding, Freight
This division acts like a travel agent for large shipments, moving goods for other companies via air, ocean, and road. Instead of owning all the ships and planes itself, it books space on them, acting as a middleman to manage the transportation of everything from a few pallets to oversized industrial equipment. Customers pay DHL to handle the complexity of international freight, including customs and multimodal transport (using a combination of trucks, trains, and ships). This part of the business is less about speed and more about handling large volumes and complex logistics for big companies.
Supply Chain
This segment goes beyond just shipping and acts as a partner for businesses to manage their entire logistics process. This includes services like warehousing (storing products), transportation, and managing the fulfillment of online orders for other companies. For example, a large retail or technology company might hire DHL Supply Chain to run its distribution centers and ensure products get to stores or customers efficiently. This is a contract-based business where customers pay for tailored, long-term logistics solutions.
eCommerce
This division is specifically designed to help online businesses ship their products to customers, both within their own country and internationally. It offers affordable and reliable parcel delivery for the high volume of packages that e-commerce companies send out. Services include picking up products from a seller's warehouse, delivering them to the end customer, and managing returns. This is a fast-growing part of DHL's business, driven by the global boom in online shopping.
Post & Parcel Germany
This is the traditional mail and parcel delivery service within Germany, operating under the well-known Deutsche Post brand. It handles the delivery of letters and packages for individuals and businesses throughout the country. While the volume of traditional letters is declining due to email, the parcel delivery side of this business is growing thanks to e-commerce within Germany. This division leverages a dense network of post offices, automated parcel lockers, and delivery staff to serve the German domestic market.
What management is betting on now
The company's current plan, called "Strategy 2030," focuses on accelerating profitable and sustainable growth. A major part of this is investing heavily in digitalization (using technology to improve efficiency and customer experience), with a significant budget dedicated to this transformation. Management is also betting on the continued growth of e-commerce and is working to make its logistics services more environmentally friendly, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050. They are also targeting growth in specific sectors like renewable energy and healthcare logistics.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $42.94 vs current price $32.67
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $31.50 (-26.6% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $42.94 a share — about 31.4% above today's price of $32.67, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Stretched
Net debt $27.0B. Interest coverage 4.8x.
Net debt
$27.00B
Interest coverage
4.80x
DHL AG's profit covers its interest bill about 4.8 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here.
Stretched
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
DHLGY
BASELINE
DHL AG
Total debt $31.89B Interest coverage 4.80x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $28.67B Interest coverage 7.74x +61% vs DHLGY Carries about 1.6x more debt cushion than DHLGY.
Total debt $42.94B Interest coverage 6.83x +42% vs DHLGY Carries about 1.4x more debt cushion than DHLGY.
Total debt $567.28M Interest coverage 219.28x +4,469% vs DHLGY Carries about 45.7x more debt cushion than DHLGY.
Total debt $4.04B Interest coverage 3.33x -31% vs DHLGY Carries about 1.4x less debt cushion than DHLGY.
Total debt $6.12B Interest coverage 3.20x -33% vs DHLGY Carries about 1.5x less debt cushion than DHLGY.
What you should know
The case for and against DHLGY
3 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Returns 18.1% on equity, ahead of 33% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
-
Trades at 17.5x P/E vs peer median 27.3x (36.1% cheaper).
Risks
-
Stock trades 26.2% above its 5-year average P/E.
-
Net debt grew 25.3% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.0% (peer median: 1.0%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
17.47x
Forward P/E
14.86x
P/B
2.86x
P/S
0.85x
EV/EBITDA
11.52x
PEG ratio
2.65x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
17.8%
Operating margin
8.3%
Net margin
4.3%
ROE
18.1%
ROA
5.4%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
1.23x
Current ratio
1.03x
Quick ratio
0.82x
Total debt
$31.89B
Total cash
$4.89B
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$97.56B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-4.3%
EPS TTM
1.87
EPS 5Y CAGR
-11.1%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$10.40B
Free CF TTM
$7.21B
FCF margin
7.4%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
3.4%
Payout ratio
58.2%
Last ex-div date
2026-05-07