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Fundamentals snapshot

GXO Logistics, Inc.

GXO · NYQ · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics

Current price

$56.08

52-week range

$43.61 - $66.85

Market cap

$6.34B

One-glance verdict

Overvalued

$-16.87 our estimate vs market $56.08

Wall Street consensus: $70.47 (-517.8% lower than our fair-value estimate)

Balance sheet

Stretched

3.20x Stretched

Net debt $5.48B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.

What this company does

GXO Logistics, Inc.

GXO Logistics helps other companies manage their warehouses and deliver goods, handling everything from storing items to sending them out to customers, which is a key part of the supply chain (the entire process of getting a product from its beginning to the customer). This business makes money by charging clients for these services, and its success is measured by how efficiently it can operate and how satisfied its customers are with the delivery of their products.

Price history

How the share price has moved

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Earnings history

Last 8 quarters — what happened

Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.

Free cash flow by quarter (oldest to newest)
FY2024 Q4 $82.00M FY2025 Q1 $-49.00M FY2025 Q2 $-44.00M FY2025 Q3 $88.00M FY2025 Q4 $115.00M FY2026 Q1 $-34.00M FY2026 Q2 $11.00M FY2026 Q3 $82.00M
Revenue $3.59B
Net income $64.00M
Diluted EPS 0.56
Operating cash flow $156.00M
Free cash flow $82.00M
Revenue $3.44B
Net income $25.00M
Diluted EPS 0.22
Operating cash flow $76.00M
Free cash flow $11.00M
Revenue $3.30B
Net income $4.00M
Diluted EPS 0.03
Operating cash flow $31.00M
Free cash flow $-34.00M
Revenue $3.51B
Net income $43.00M
Diluted EPS 0.35
Operating cash flow $170.00M
Free cash flow $115.00M
Revenue $3.40B
Net income $59.00M
Diluted EPS 0.51
Operating cash flow $232.00M
Free cash flow $88.00M
Revenue $3.30B
Net income $26.00M
Diluted EPS 0.23
Operating cash flow $3.00M
Free cash flow $-44.00M
Revenue $2.98B
Net income $-96.00M
Diluted EPS -0.81
Operating cash flow $29.00M
Free cash flow $-49.00M
Revenue $3.25B
Net income $100.00M
Diluted EPS 0.83
Operating cash flow $186.00M
Free cash flow $82.00M

Is it cheap or expensive?

Fair value $-16.87 vs current price $56.08

Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $70.47 (-517.8% lower than our fair-value estimate).

Our most-likely fair value is $-16.87 a share — about 130.1% below today's price of $56.08, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).

overvalued

We estimate the cash this business should generate over the next 10 years and beyond, then convert it to today's money for a fair value per share, in its trading currency. Cautious, middle and optimistic growth cases give a range. Not for banks/insurers.

Base

Growth 8.0% · Discount 10.6% · Terminal 3.0%

$-16.87

Bear

Growth 4.0% · Discount 10.6% · Terminal 3.0%

$-23.08

Bull

Growth 12.0% · Discount 10.6% · Terminal 3.0%

$-9.23

Is it drowning in debt?

Stretched

Net debt $5.5B. Interest coverage 3.2x.

Net debt $5.48B
Interest coverage 3.20x

GXO Logistics, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 3.2 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.

Stretched
Worse cushion Baseline Better cushion
GXO BASELINE GXO Logistics, Inc.

Total debt $5.82B Interest coverage 3.20x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.

Total debt $8.18B Interest coverage 2.74x -14% vs GXO Has roughly the same debt cushion as GXO.

Total debt $393.20M Interest coverage 5.00x +56% vs GXO Carries about 1.6x more debt cushion than GXO.

Total debt $498.76M Interest coverage 9.61x +201% vs GXO Carries about 3.0x more debt cushion than GXO.

Total debt $431.42M Interest coverage 8.06x +152% vs GXO Carries about 2.5x more debt cushion than GXO.

Total debt $727.00M Interest coverage -0.20x -100% vs GXO This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with GXO.

What you should know

The case for and against GXO

3 Rewards 3 Risks

Rewards

  • Revenue grew 5.0% last year.
  • Returns 4.7% on equity, ahead of 50% of its peers.
  • Free cash flow was positive in 6/10 years.

Risks

  • Net debt grew 34.3% over 3 years.
  • Insider ownership is only 1.0% (peer median: 2.9%).
  • Operating margin compressed from 3.7% to 3.7% over 3 years.

The numbers

All the key metrics, grouped by purpose

Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.

Valuation

How expensive the stock looks

P/E (TTM)
47.53x
Forward P/E
15.60x
P/B
2.12x
P/S
0.46x
EV/EBITDA
12.73x
PEG ratio
1.14x

Profitability

How much profit each dollar creates

Gross margin
15.3%
Operating margin
3.7%
Net margin
1.0%
ROE
4.7%
ROA
2.4%

Health

Liquidity and balance-sheet strength

Debt / equity
1.92x
Current ratio
0.76x
Quick ratio
0.67x
Total debt
$5.82B
Total cash
$340.00M

Growth

How the business has been compounding

Revenue TTM
$13.84B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
13.5%
EPS TTM
1.18
EPS 5Y CAGR
-44.9%

Cash flow

How much cash the business throws off

Operating CF TTM
$433.00M
Free CF TTM
$110.00M
FCF margin
0.8%

Dividend

Shareholder payout

Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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