One-glance verdict
$-16.87 our estimate vs market $56.08
Wall Street consensus: $70.47 (-517.8% lower than our fair-value estimate)
432% below our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
GXO · NYQ · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Current price
$56.08
52-week range
$43.61 - $66.85
Market cap
$6.34B
One-glance verdict
Wall Street consensus: $70.47 (-517.8% lower than our fair-value estimate)
432% below our estimate, beyond the bull case
Balance sheet
Net debt $5.48B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
What this company does
GXO Logistics helps other companies manage their warehouses and deliver goods, handling everything from storing items to sending them out to customers, which is a key part of the supply chain (the entire process of getting a product from its beginning to the customer). This business makes money by charging clients for these services, and its success is measured by how efficiently it can operate and how satisfied its customers are with the delivery of their products.
"How the company got here" "GXO Logistics was established in August 2021 when XPO Logistics, a larger transportation and logistics company, spun off its contract logistics business to operate as an independent, publicly traded company. The roots of GXO's operations, however, go back further, built through acquisitions made by XPO, such as Norbert Dentressangle and Con-way, which significantly expanded its contract logistics capabilities. This strategic separation allowed GXO to focus exclusively on being a pure-play contract logistics provider, offering specialized services in warehousing and fulfillment. The company has since continued to grow through strategic acquisitions, like Clipper Logistics in 2022 and PFSweb in 2023, to enhance its capabilities and geographic reach. GXO's formation as a standalone entity aimed to reshape market perceptions and redefine operational excellence in the contract logistics space." "What it actually does" "GXO Logistics provides essential services that help other businesses manage the physical movement and storage of their goods. Think of them as the behind-the-scenes partners for many well-known brands, handling the complex tasks that get products from a company's inventory to a customer's hands. This includes storing items in warehouses, picking and packing online orders, managing the process of returning items, and even doing light assembly or kitting (bundling products together). GXO focuses on providing these services for large companies across various industries, helping them streamline their operations and meet customer demands efficiently." "E-commerce and Omnichannel Fulfillment" "This is GXO's largest area of business, accounting for about 47% of its revenue. It involves managing the entire process of getting products to customers, whether they ordered online (e-commerce) or through a combination of online and physical stores (omnichannel retail). GXO's teams and technology work to pick items from warehouse shelves, pack them carefully, and ship them out quickly and accurately. This service is crucial for retailers who want to ensure their customers receive their orders promptly, especially during busy shopping seasons." "Warehousing and Distribution" "This segment involves GXO managing large storage facilities, known as warehouses, where companies can keep their products. GXO handles the organization of these goods, ensuring they are stored safely and can be easily located when needed. This service is fundamental to the supply chain, acting as a central hub for inventory before it's distributed to various locations or directly to customers. GXO operates a vast network of these facilities, providing significant storage capacity for its clients." "Reverse Logistics" "Reverse logistics refers to the process of managing products that are returned by customers. Instead of just discarding returned items, GXO inspects them, sorts them, and determines if they can be refurbished, repackaged, and put back into saleable inventory. This service is particularly important for online retailers, as returns are a common part of the e-commerce experience, and efficiently handling them can save businesses money and reduce waste." "Value-Added Services" "Beyond basic storage and shipping, GXO offers a range of 'value-added' services that customize logistics to specific client needs. This can include kitting, which is bundling multiple products together into a single package, or labeling and light assembly tasks. These services help companies prepare their products for sale or specific promotions, adding an extra layer of customization to the supply chain process." "What management is betting on now" "GXO's management is focused on leveraging technology and automation to improve efficiency and win more business. They are investing in areas like artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics to optimize warehouse operations, making them faster and more accurate. The company is also prioritizing strengthening customer partnerships and expanding its capabilities in e-commerce and reverse logistics, recognizing these as key growth areas. By focusing on operational excellence and innovation, GXO aims to be the preferred logistics partner for companies with complex supply chain needs, helping them navigate an increasingly intricate global market."
Price history
Earnings history
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Is it cheap or expensive?
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $70.47 (-517.8% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $-16.87 a share — about 130.1% below today's price of $56.08, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Net debt $5.5B. Interest coverage 3.2x.
GXO Logistics, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 3.2 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Total debt $5.82B Interest coverage 3.20x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $8.18B Interest coverage 2.74x -14% vs GXO Has roughly the same debt cushion as GXO.
Total debt $393.20M Interest coverage 5.00x +56% vs GXO Carries about 1.6x more debt cushion than GXO.
Total debt $498.76M Interest coverage 9.61x +201% vs GXO Carries about 3.0x more debt cushion than GXO.
Total debt $431.42M Interest coverage 8.06x +152% vs GXO Carries about 2.5x more debt cushion than GXO.
What you should know
The numbers
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Valuation
Profitability
Health
Growth
Cash flow
Dividend
Metric explainer
Debt comparison
What you should know