One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$-10.36 our estimate vs market $17.65
Wall Street consensus: $26.00 (-350.9% lower than our fair-value estimate)
270% below our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Forward Air Corporation
FWRD · NMS · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Current price
$17.65
52-week range
$7.86 - $31.18
Market cap
$596.23M
Balance sheet
Distressed
0.20x Concerning
Net debt $1.97B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
3 Risks
2 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 2.6% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 9/10 years.
- Risk Net debt grew 829.4% over 3 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -735.7% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
Forward Air Corporation
Forward Air Corporation is like a super-efficient delivery service for businesses. They mainly make money by picking up and delivering packages quickly for other companies, which is their "Expedited Freight" business, and also by managing a whole bunch of other shipping needs for them. This matters because when businesses can rely on fast and organized deliveries, their own operations run smoother.
How the company got here
Forward Air Corporation was founded in 1981 and has grown into a significant player in the freight and logistics industry. Initially focusing on expedited less-than-truckload (LTL) services, the company has strategically expanded its offerings over the years. This expansion included acquisitions and organic growth to build a more comprehensive suite of logistics solutions. Today, Forward Air operates as an asset-light company, meaning it doesn't own all the trucks and planes it uses, which allows for flexibility in its operations.
What it actually does
Forward Air provides a range of transportation and logistics services designed to move goods efficiently for businesses. Think of them as the behind-the-scenes orchestrators that ensure packages and larger shipments get from one place to another, often on tight deadlines. They handle everything from picking up goods at a business, to managing their transport across different modes like trucks and planes, and even storing them if needed. Their services are crucial for companies that need reliable and fast delivery of their products to customers or other businesses.
Expedited Freight
This is Forward Air's core business, focusing on moving shipments quickly. They offer services for less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments, which means they combine smaller shipments from multiple customers onto one truck. This segment also includes local pick-up and delivery, as well as specialized services like high-security transport and temperature-controlled logistics for sensitive goods. This part of the business is a significant contributor to the company's overall revenue, serving as its foundational offering.
Omni Logistics
The Omni Logistics segment provides a broader range of global supply chain solutions. This includes managing air and ocean freight, handling customs brokerage (the process of clearing goods through customs), warehousing and distribution, and other value-added services. Essentially, this segment helps businesses manage the entire journey of their goods internationally and domestically, from start to finish. It represents a growing portion of Forward Air's business, offering a more integrated approach to logistics.
Intermodal
This segment focuses on moving freight using multiple modes of transportation, primarily involving long-haul trucks and trains. They specialize in intermodal container drayage, which is the short-distance trucking of containers between ports or rail yards and warehouses. This service is vital for businesses that rely on the efficient movement of goods via rail for long distances, with trucks handling the initial and final legs of the journey. It's a key component for managing large volumes of goods across the country.
What management is betting on now
Forward Air's management is focused on integrating its various services to offer more comprehensive logistics solutions to its clients. A key strategy involves expanding its Omni Logistics capabilities to capture more of the global supply chain market. They are also investing in technology and infrastructure to improve efficiency and reliability across all segments. The goal is to become a one-stop shop for businesses needing complex transportation and logistics management, thereby increasing revenue and market share.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$-30.50M
FY2025 Q1
$15.71M
FY2025 Q2
$-17.96M
FY2025 Q3
$48.60M
FY2025 Q4
$-31.08M
FY2026 Q1
$38.79M
FY2026 Q2
$-8.10M
FY2026 Q3
$32.23M
Revenue
$673.86M
Net income
$11.38M
Diluted EPS
0.34
Operating cash flow
$35.32M
Free cash flow
$32.23M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$673.04M
Net income
$-207.30M
Diluted EPS
-6.38
Operating cash flow
$-4.88M
Free cash flow
$-8.10M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$582.05M
Net income
$-34.32M
Diluted EPS
-1.09
Operating cash flow
$45.74M
Free cash flow
$38.79M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$631.23M
Net income
$-28.33M
Diluted EPS
-0.90
Operating cash flow
$-22.73M
Free cash flow
$-31.08M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$631.76M
Net income
$-16.25M
Diluted EPS
-0.52
Operating cash flow
$52.71M
Free cash flow
$48.60M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$618.84M
Net income
$-12.58M
Diluted EPS
-0.41
Operating cash flow
$-13.22M
Free cash flow
$-17.96M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$613.28M
Net income
$-50.64M
Diluted EPS
-1.68
Operating cash flow
$27.61M
Free cash flow
$15.71M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$632.85M
Net income
$-36.42M
Diluted EPS
-1.24
Operating cash flow
$-23.25M
Free cash flow
$-30.50M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $-10.36 vs current price $17.65
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $26.00 (-350.9% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $-10.36 a share — about 158.7% below today's price of $17.65, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $2.0B. Interest coverage 0.2x.
Net debt
$1.97B
Interest coverage
0.20x
Forward Air Corporation's profit covers its interest bill about 0.2 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
FWRD
BASELINE
Forward Air Corporation
Total debt $2.11B Interest coverage 0.20x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $431.42M Interest coverage 8.06x +3,902% vs FWRD Carries about 40.0x more debt cushion than FWRD.
Total debt $263.36M Interest coverage 21.42x +10,528% vs FWRD Carries about 106.3x more debt cushion than FWRD.
Total debt $2.61B Interest coverage 1.94x +864% vs FWRD Carries about 9.6x more debt cushion than FWRD.
Total debt $3.97B Interest coverage 3.33x +1,552% vs FWRD Carries about 16.5x more debt cushion than FWRD.
Total debt $1.45B Interest coverage 11.50x +5,608% vs FWRD Carries about 57.1x more debt cushion than FWRD.
What you should know
The case for and against FWRD
2 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 2.6% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 9/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 829.4% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -735.7% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Operating margin compressed from 14.7% to 6.3% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
—
Forward P/E
39.22x
P/B
-5.16x
P/S
0.24x
EV/EBITDA
8.96x
PEG ratio
0.65x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
21.5%
Operating margin
6.3%
Net margin
-11.4%
ROE
-735.7%
ROA
3.1%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
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Current ratio
1.32x
Quick ratio
1.17x
Total debt
$2.11B
Total cash
$139.45M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$2.56B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
15.8%
EPS TTM
-8.92
EPS 5Y CAGR
—
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$53.44M
Free CF TTM
$15.27M
FCF margin
0.6%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
58.5%
Last ex-div date
2023-11-21