One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$-19.55 our estimate vs market $14.69
Wall Street consensus: $28.00 (-243.2% lower than our fair-value estimate)
175% below our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
Forward Air Corporation
FWRD · NMS · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Current price
$14.69
52-week range
$7.86 - $31.18
Market cap
$496.24M
Balance sheet
Distressed
0.20x Concerning
Net debt $1.97B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
3 Risks
2 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 0.9% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 9/10 years.
- Risk Net debt grew 829.4% over 3 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -735.7% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
Forward Air Corporation
Forward Air is a logistics company that arranges fast shipping for other businesses, focusing on moving time-sensitive cargo that doesn't fill an entire truck. As a key part of the supply chain (the complex network of getting a product from factory to customer), the company is "asset-light," meaning it doesn't own all of its trucks. This matters because it allows them to offer flexible, speedy delivery without the heavy costs of owning and maintaining a massive fleet of vehicles.
How the company got here
Forward Air started in 1981 as a company called Landair Transport, Inc. It initially focused on providing ground transportation for air freight, offering a more affordable alternative for shipments that didn't need to be sent by plane. A key turning point was the acquisition of Omni Logistics in 2024, which significantly expanded the company's services into global shipping and logistics. This transformed Forward Air from a primarily North American expedited shipping provider into a broader logistics platform with international reach.
What it actually does
Forward Air is a transportation and logistics company that helps other businesses move their goods. Think of them as a shipping partner for companies, handling the movement of freight across the country and around the world. They don't own all the trucks and planes themselves, which is known as an 'asset-light' model, giving them flexibility. Their services are used by freight forwarders (companies that organize shipments), airlines, and retailers to transport everything from single pallets to full truckloads.
Expedited Freight
This is Forward Air's traditional business, focused on fast ground transportation. It provides less-than-truckload (LTL) services, which means they combine smaller shipments from different customers onto one truck. This segment is for time-sensitive cargo that needs to move quickly across regions or the entire country. This part of the business, which makes up about 40% of the company's revenue, also handles local pickups and deliveries.
Omni Logistics
This is now the largest part of Forward Air's business, bringing in about half of its revenue. The Omni Logistics segment offers a wide range of global logistics services. This includes managing air and ocean freight, handling customs paperwork (customs brokerage), and providing warehousing and distribution. Essentially, this division helps companies manage their entire supply chain (the process of getting a product from the manufacturer to the end customer).
Intermodal
This segment, which accounts for roughly 10% of revenue, focuses on a specific type of shipping that uses multiple forms of transportation, like ships, trains, and trucks. A key service here is drayage, which is the short-distance trucking of shipping containers between ports, rail yards, and warehouses. This is a crucial step in getting imported goods from the ship to a truck or train for further transport.
What management is betting on now
Forward Air's current focus is on successfully integrating the recently acquired Omni Logistics to create a more unified company. A major goal is to encourage customers of one service to use their other offerings, a strategy known as cross-selling. The company is also concentrating on improving efficiency by consolidating its technology and human resources systems. Additionally, management is exploring the sale of non-essential parts of the business to reduce debt and focus on its core logistics services.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$40.74M
FY2024 Q4
$-30.50M
FY2025 Q1
$15.71M
FY2025 Q2
$-17.96M
FY2025 Q3
$48.60M
FY2025 Q4
$-31.08M
FY2026 Q1
$38.79M
FY2026 Q2
$-8.10M
Revenue
$673.04M
Net income
$-207.30M
Diluted EPS
-6.38
Operating cash flow
$-4.88M
Free cash flow
$-8.10M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$582.05M
Net income
$-34.32M
Diluted EPS
-1.09
Operating cash flow
$45.74M
Free cash flow
$38.79M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$631.23M
Net income
$-28.33M
Diluted EPS
-0.90
Operating cash flow
$-22.73M
Free cash flow
$-31.08M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$631.76M
Net income
$-16.25M
Diluted EPS
-0.52
Operating cash flow
$52.71M
Free cash flow
$48.60M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$618.84M
Net income
$-12.58M
Diluted EPS
-0.41
Operating cash flow
$-13.22M
Free cash flow
$-17.96M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$613.28M
Net income
$-50.64M
Diluted EPS
-1.68
Operating cash flow
$27.61M
Free cash flow
$15.71M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$632.85M
Net income
$-36.42M
Diluted EPS
-1.24
Operating cash flow
$-23.25M
Free cash flow
$-30.50M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$655.94M
Net income
$-73.41M
Diluted EPS
-2.66
Operating cash flow
$51.15M
Free cash flow
$40.74M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $-19.55 vs current price $14.69
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $28.00 (-243.2% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $-19.55 a share — about 233.1% below today's price of $14.69, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $2.0B. Interest coverage 0.2x.
Net debt
$1.97B
Interest coverage
0.20x
Forward Air Corporation's profit covers its interest bill about 0.2 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
FWRD
BASELINE
Forward Air Corporation
Total debt $2.11B Interest coverage 0.20x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $459.76M Interest coverage 8.06x +3,902% vs FWRD Carries about 40.0x more debt cushion than FWRD.
Total debt $269.19M Interest coverage 21.42x +10,528% vs FWRD Carries about 106.3x more debt cushion than FWRD.
Total debt $2.69B Interest coverage 1.94x +864% vs FWRD Carries about 9.6x more debt cushion than FWRD.
Total debt $4.04B Interest coverage 3.33x +1,552% vs FWRD Carries about 16.5x more debt cushion than FWRD.
Total debt $1.40B Interest coverage 11.50x +5,608% vs FWRD Carries about 57.1x more debt cushion than FWRD.
What you should know
The case for and against FWRD
2 Rewards
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 0.9% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 9/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 829.4% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -735.7% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Operating margin compressed from 14.7% to 6.3% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
—
Forward P/E
34.16x
P/B
-4.29x
P/S
0.20x
EV/EBITDA
8.73x
PEG ratio
0.65x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
21.5%
Operating margin
6.3%
Net margin
-11.4%
ROE
-735.7%
ROA
3.1%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
—
Current ratio
1.32x
Quick ratio
1.17x
Total debt
$2.11B
Total cash
$139.45M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$2.52B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
15.8%
EPS TTM
-8.91
EPS 5Y CAGR
—
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$70.84M
Free CF TTM
$15.27M
FCF margin
0.6%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
2023-11-21