One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$325.41 our estimate vs market $146.87
Wall Street consensus: $119.56 (-63.3% lower than our fair-value estimate)
55% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Moderna, Inc.
MRNA · NMS · Healthcare · Biotechnology
Current price
$146.87
52-week range
$22.28 - $176.66
Market cap
$58.64B
Balance sheet
Healthy
-307.40x Concerning
Net cash $3.85B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
2 Risks
2 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 14.6% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 49.9% to -557.9% over 3 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -39.0% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
What this company does
Moderna, Inc.
Moderna is a medicine company most famous for its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, which has been its primary source of income. It is now using that same technology to develop a wide range of other potential products, from flu shots to cancer treatments. For Moderna to succeed long-term, it must get these new drugs approved and to market, proving its technology works for more than just one disease.
How the company got here
Moderna was founded in 2010 with the goal of developing medicines based on messenger RNA (mRNA), a technology that tells cells in the body how to make proteins to fight or prevent disease. For its first several years, the company focused on research without releasing any products. The COVID-19 pandemic was a major turning point; Moderna rapidly developed one of the first and most effective COVID-19 vaccines, which transformed it from a research-focused firm into a major global vaccine provider almost overnight. This success provided the funds to expand its research into other areas, including cancer and rare diseases. In 2024, the company received approval for its second product, a vaccine for RSV (a common respiratory virus).
What it actually does
Think of Moderna as a company that provides instructions for your body to create its own medicine. It uses a technology called messenger RNA (mRNA), which are tiny pieces of genetic code that tell your cells what proteins to make. For a vaccine, the mRNA instructs cells to create a harmless piece of a virus, which your immune system then learns to recognize and fight off. This approach allows for faster development of vaccines and treatments compared to traditional methods. Moderna's main products are vaccines for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19 and RSV.
Respiratory Vaccines
This is currently Moderna's main business and where almost all of its sales come from. The company sells its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, and its recently approved RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) vaccine, mRESVIA, to governments, pharmacies, and healthcare providers. While demand for the COVID vaccine has decreased since the height of the pandemic, it is now sold as a seasonal shot, similar to the flu shot. This part of the business is the financial engine that funds the company's research into other potential medicines.
Therapeutics and Other Vaccines (In Development)
This part of the company doesn't generate significant revenue yet but represents what the company could become in the future. Moderna is using its mRNA technology to develop a wide range of potential new products, which are currently in different stages of testing. These include vaccines for other infectious diseases like the flu, HIV, and Zika, as well as treatments for cancer and rare genetic diseases. A key focus is on personalized cancer vaccines, which are custom-made to help a patient's own immune system fight their specific cancer. These potential products are a small part of the company now but are where management is investing for future growth.
What management is betting on now
Management's main goal is to show that Moderna is not just a COVID-19 vaccine company. They are heavily investing the cash earned from their COVID vaccine to prove their mRNA platform can create a variety of successful medicines. Their strategy focuses on expanding their respiratory vaccine business with new products, like a combined flu and COVID shot. At the same time, they are pushing to get their first non-vaccine products, particularly in cancer and rare disease treatments, through the approval process and onto the market.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$-1.72B
FY2024 Q4
$303.00M
FY2025 Q1
$-1.15B
FY2025 Q2
$-922.00M
FY2025 Q3
$-880.00M
FY2025 Q4
$891.00M
FY2026 Q1
$-692.00M
FY2026 Q2
$-563.00M
Revenue
$145.00M
Net income
$-782.00M
Diluted EPS
-1.97
Operating cash flow
$-526.00M
Free cash flow
$-563.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$389.00M
Net income
$-1.34B
Diluted EPS
-3.40
Operating cash flow
$-630.00M
Free cash flow
$-692.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$678.00M
Net income
$-826.00M
Diluted EPS
-2.10
Operating cash flow
$930.00M
Free cash flow
$891.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.02B
Net income
$-200.00M
Diluted EPS
-0.51
Operating cash flow
$-847.00M
Free cash flow
$-880.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$142.00M
Net income
$-825.00M
Diluted EPS
-2.13
Operating cash flow
$-919.00M
Free cash flow
$-922.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$108.00M
Net income
$-971.00M
Diluted EPS
-2.52
Operating cash flow
$-1.04B
Free cash flow
$-1.15B
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$966.00M
Net income
$-1.12B
Diluted EPS
-2.91
Operating cash flow
$825.00M
Free cash flow
$303.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.86B
Net income
$13.00M
Diluted EPS
0.03
Operating cash flow
$-1.57B
Free cash flow
$-1.72B
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $325.41 vs current price $146.87
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $119.56 (-63.3% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $325.41 a share — about 121.6% above today's price of $146.87, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $3.9B - more cash than debt. Interest coverage -307.4x.
Net debt
$-3.85B
Interest coverage
-307.40x
Moderna, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
MRNA
BASELINE
Moderna, Inc.
Total debt $1.29B Interest coverage -307.40x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $364.76M Interest coverage -45.12x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $1.98B Interest coverage 342.44x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while MRNA does not.
Total debt $2.71B Interest coverage 84.52x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while MRNA does not.
Total debt $2.99B Interest coverage 1.99x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while MRNA does not.
Total debt $26.25B Interest coverage 11.43x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while MRNA does not.
What you should know
The case for and against MRNA
2 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 14.6% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 4/10 years.
Risks
-
Operating margin compressed from 49.9% to -557.9% over 3 years.
-
Return on equity was -39.0% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
-32.86x
P/B
8.67x
P/S
26.32x
EV/EBITDA
-24.39x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
-66.0%
Operating margin
-557.9%
Net margin
-141.4%
ROE
-39.0%
ROA
-13.3%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.19x
Current ratio
2.29x
Quick ratio
2.07x
Total debt
$1.29B
Total cash
$5.14B
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$2.23B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-43.0%
EPS TTM
-7.98
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$-1.07B
Free CF TTM
$-2.06B
FCF margin
-92.7%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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