One-glance verdict
Within fair range
$3.23 our estimate vs market $3.80
Wall Street consensus: $6.57 (103.2% higher than our fair-value estimate)
18% above our estimate
Fundamentals snapshot
NIO Inc.
NIO · NYQ · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Current price
$3.80
52-week range
$3.71 - $8.02
Market cap
$9.52B
Balance sheet
Healthy
-15.86x Concerning
Net cash $2.10B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
2 Rewards
2 Risks
2 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 38.9% last year.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -45.3% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 0.1% (peer median: 15.3%).
What this company does
NIO Inc.
NIO is a Chinese company that primarily makes money by selling premium electric vehicles, such as SUVs and sedans. What makes NIO different is its focus on services, especially its battery-swapping stations that let drivers quickly exchange a depleted battery for a full one. This strategy aims to create a loyal customer ecosystem (a network of connected products and services) and earn money beyond the initial car sale.
How the company got here
NIO was founded in 2014 in Shanghai, China, with the goal of becoming a high-end electric vehicle (EV) maker. It gained early attention with its EP9 electric supercar, which set speed records. The company launched its first mainstream vehicle, the ES8 SUV, in 2017 and went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2018. A key moment in its history was the 2020 launch of its innovative "Battery as a Service" (BaaS) model, which allows customers to buy the car and separately subscribe to the battery, making the initial purchase cheaper. Facing financial struggles in 2020, the company secured a crucial billion-dollar investment that helped it continue its growth.
What it actually does
NIO designs and sells premium smart electric cars, including SUVs and sedans. Think of them as a competitor to brands like Tesla, but with a unique twist: they offer a battery swapping service. Instead of waiting to charge your car, you can drive into a special station and have a robot swap your depleted battery for a fully charged one in about three minutes. Beyond the cars themselves, NIO focuses heavily on the customer experience, creating a community for its users with clubhouses called NIO Houses and a mobile app for connecting with other owners.
Vehicle Sales
This is NIO's main source of income, making up the vast majority of its revenue. The company sells a range of premium electric vehicles, including sedans and SUVs of various sizes. Customers purchase these cars directly from NIO. This is similar to how traditional car companies make money, but NIO focuses exclusively on high-tech, electric vehicles aimed at the premium market segment.
Energy and Service Solutions
This is a smaller but important and growing part of NIO's business. A key feature is the "Battery as a Service" (BaaS) subscription, where customers pay a monthly fee to use the car's battery instead of owning it. This lowers the initial price of the car for the buyer. This segment also includes revenue from their network of Power Swap stations, home chargers, mobile charging vans, and other power-related services that provide a complete charging solution for users.
What management is betting on now
NIO's leadership is heavily invested in expanding its unique battery swapping network, planning to add thousands of new stations globally. They see this network as a key advantage over competitors who only offer traditional plug-in charging. The company is also broadening its reach by launching new, more affordable brands like ONVO and Firefly to attract a wider range of customers beyond the premium market. Additionally, NIO is investing in its own technology, including developing its own chips for autonomous driving (self-driving capabilities), to become more self-reliant and a potential technology supplier to other companies.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$-2.33B
FY2025 Q4
$-439.38M
Revenue
$12.51B
Net income
—
Diluted EPS
-0.98
Operating cash flow
$427.94M
Free cash flow
$-439.38M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$9.01B
Net income
—
Diluted EPS
-1.51
Operating cash flow
$-1.08B
Free cash flow
$-2.33B
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $3.23 vs current price $3.80
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $6.57 (103.2% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $3.23 a share — about 15.0% away from today's price of $3.80, so the stock currently looks fairly priced.
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net cash $2.1B - more cash than debt. Interest coverage -15.9x.
Net debt
$-2.10B
Interest coverage
-15.86x
NIO Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 5 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
NIO
BASELINE
NIO Inc.
Total debt $4.32B Interest coverage -15.86x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $4.00B Interest coverage -6.99x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $2.19B Interest coverage -3.10x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $5.35B Interest coverage -13.08x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $3.66B Interest coverage -36.82x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $6.02B Interest coverage -5.29x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
What you should know
The case for and against NIO
2 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 38.9% last year.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 1/10 years.
Risks
-
Return on equity was -45.3% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Insider ownership is only 0.1% (peer median: 15.3%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
—
Forward P/E
29.32x
P/B
15.19x
P/S
0.08x
EV/EBITDA
1.64x
PEG ratio
—
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
17.4%
Operating margin
-1.1%
Net margin
-4.2%
ROE
-45.3%
ROA
-2.0%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
2.03x
Current ratio
1.02x
Quick ratio
0.68x
Total debt
$4.32B
Total cash
$6.42B
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$36.49B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
21.9%
EPS TTM
-0.26
EPS 5Y CAGR
—
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$-1.40B
Free CF TTM
$-439.38M
FCF margin
-1.2%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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