One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$35.44 our estimate vs market $9.84
Wall Street consensus: $14.38 (-59.4% lower than our fair-value estimate)
72% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
The Simply Good Foods Company
SMPL · NCM · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Current price
$9.84
52-week range
$9.83 - $27.52
Market cap
$870.26M
Balance sheet
Healthy
9.40x Adequate
Net debt $324.58M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
1 Reward
3 Risks
1 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -12.2% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 17.3% to 12.8% over 3 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 9.2% (peer median: 9.6%).
What this company does
The Simply Good Foods Company
The Simply Good Foods Company makes popular health-focused snacks you might know, like Atkins bars and Quest protein shakes. The company earns money by selling these products in major grocery stores and online, capitalizing on the growing consumer demand for high-protein, low-sugar foods. This focus on the "better-for-you" snack market is the core of its business strategy.
How the company got here
The Simply Good Foods Company was formed in 2017 when a special purpose acquisition company (a company created specifically to buy another one) purchased Atkins Nutritionals. Atkins was already a well-known brand famous for its low-carbohydrate diet products, started by Dr. Robert Atkins in 1989. A major turning point came in 2019 when Simply Good Foods bought Quest Nutrition for $1 billion, which shifted the company's focus from just diet products to the broader nutritional snacking market. More recently, in 2024, the company acquired OWYN, a brand specializing in plant-based protein shakes, to further expand its offerings.
What it actually does
Simply Good Foods sells a variety of snacks and meal replacements designed for health-conscious consumers. You would find their products in the health food or snack aisles of major stores like grocery stores, mass merchandisers, and convenience stores, as well as online. Their main focus is on items that are high in protein, low in sugar, and low in carbohydrates. This includes popular items like protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, protein chips, cookies, and low-sugar sweet treats.
Quest
This is the company's largest and fastest-growing business line, making up the majority of its sales. Quest is known for its high-protein snacks that appeal to fitness enthusiasts and everyday consumers looking for healthier options. The products under this brand include a wide range of items such as protein bars, protein chips, cookies, and ready-to-drink shakes. Customers buy these products for a convenient source of protein or as a healthier alternative to traditional snacks.
Atkins
The Atkins brand is the original foundation of the company and is centered around low-carb and low-sugar products for people focused on weight management. This segment offers meal replacement bars, shakes, and sweet treats that follow the principles of the Atkins diet. While it's a significant part of the business, it has faced more challenges and slower growth compared to the Quest brand. Customers for this segment are typically those actively trying to lose weight or maintain a low-carbohydrate lifestyle.
OWYN (Only What You Need)
This is the newest addition to the company, representing a smaller but growing part of the business. OWYN specializes in plant-based protein products, primarily ready-to-drink shakes and powders. This brand caters to consumers with dietary restrictions or preferences for plant-based and allergen-free options. The acquisition of OWYN allows Simply Good Foods to compete in the expanding market for vegan and plant-based nutrition products.
What management is betting on now
The company's leadership is focused on growing its Quest and OWYN brands, which are seen as having the most potential for future growth. They are also working to stabilize the Atkins brand by focusing on its core products. A key priority is improving the company's profitability by managing costs, particularly in response to rising ingredient prices. Management also plans to continue looking for opportunities to acquire other brands that fit into their nutritional snacking platform.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Loading price history…
Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$45.04M
FY2025 Q1
$31.71M
FY2025 Q3
$30.75M
FY2025 Q4
$27.34M
FY2026 Q1
$48.00M
FY2026 Q2
$2.56M
FY2026 Q3
$41.52M
Revenue
$356.98M
Net income
$-51.97M
Diluted EPS
-0.58
Operating cash flow
$43.98M
Free cash flow
$41.52M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$326.01M
Net income
$-159.70M
Diluted EPS
-1.73
Operating cash flow
$8.10M
Free cash flow
$2.56M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$340.20M
Net income
$25.27M
Diluted EPS
0.26
Operating cash flow
$50.09M
Free cash flow
$48.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$369.04M
Net income
$-12.36M
Diluted EPS
-0.12
Operating cash flow
$45.37M
Free cash flow
$27.34M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$359.65M
Net income
$36.75M
Diluted EPS
0.36
Operating cash flow
$31.25M
Free cash flow
$30.75M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$341.27M
Net income
$38.12M
Diluted EPS
0.38
Operating cash flow
$32.02M
Free cash flow
$31.71M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$375.69M
Net income
$29.29M
Diluted EPS
0.29
Operating cash flow
$48.95M
Free cash flow
$45.04M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $35.44 vs current price $9.84
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $14.38 (-59.4% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $35.44 a share — about 260.1% above today's price of $9.84, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Healthy
Net debt $324.6M. Interest coverage 9.4x.
Net debt
$324.58M
Interest coverage
9.40x
The Simply Good Foods Company's profit covers its interest bill about 9.4 times over. which is stronger than every peer shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Healthy
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
SMPL
BASELINE
The Simply Good Foods Company
Total debt $448.46M Interest coverage 9.40x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $1.17B Interest coverage 5.23x -44% vs SMPL Carries about 1.8x less debt cushion than SMPL.
Total debt $7.63B Interest coverage 2.29x -76% vs SMPL Carries about 4.1x less debt cushion than SMPL.
Total debt $1.03B Interest coverage 0.25x -97% vs SMPL Carries about 38.1x less debt cushion than SMPL.
Total debt $407.81M Interest coverage -16.63x -100% vs SMPL This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with SMPL.
What you should know
The case for and against SMPL
1 Reward
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 8/10 years.
Risks
-
Return on equity was -12.2% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Operating margin compressed from 17.3% to 12.8% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 9.2% (peer median: 9.6%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
5.79x
P/B
0.61x
P/S
0.63x
EV/EBITDA
5.66x
PEG ratio
1.64x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
33.3%
Operating margin
12.8%
Net margin
-14.3%
ROE
-12.2%
ROA
5.4%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.32x
Current ratio
4.80x
Quick ratio
2.89x
Total debt
$448.46M
Total cash
$123.88M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$1.39B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
9.6%
EPS TTM
-2.11
EPS 5Y CAGR
-1.9%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$147.54M
Free CF TTM
$157.91M
FCF margin
11.3%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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