One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$131.63 our estimate vs market $79.40
Wall Street consensus: $97.67 (-25.8% lower than our fair-value estimate)
40% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Post Holdings, Inc.
POST · NYQ · Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Current price
$79.40
52-week range
$71.45 - $117.28
Market cap
$3.49B
Balance sheet
Stretched
2.29x Stretched
Net debt $7.37B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
1 Risk
3 rewards · 1 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 3.1% last year.
- Reward Returns 8.3% on equity, ahead of 80% of its peers.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
- Risk Net debt grew 38.9% over 3 years.
What this company does
Post Holdings, Inc.
Post Holdings is a food company that owns a collection of familiar grocery brands, including Honey Bunches of Oats cereal, Peter Pan peanut butter, and Bob Evans refrigerated meals. The company earns revenue (the total money it brings in from sales) from these different categories, from breakfast foods and pet food to items sold directly to restaurants. This variety is important because selling everyday necessities to both individual shoppers and businesses can create a steady stream of income.
How the company got here
While the Post brand has been around since 1895, the modern company, Post Holdings, Inc., was formed in 2012 when it was separated from a larger food manufacturer called Ralcorp Holdings. Since then, it has grown significantly by acquiring (buying) other food companies. This strategy has transformed it from a simple cereal maker into a diversified holding company, which is a parent company that owns a controlling stake in other businesses. Key purchases included MOM Brands (maker of Malt-O-Meal cereals), Weetabix in the U.K., and Michael Foods, which brought it into the egg and refrigerated food business. More recently, it expanded into the pet food market by buying several well-known brands from The J.M. Smucker Company.
What it actually does
Post Holdings is a company that makes and sells a wide variety of packaged foods that you would find in most grocery stores. Many of its products are household names, from breakfast cereals like Honey Bunches of Oats and Pebbles to Peter Pan peanut butter. The company also sells refrigerated items like Bob Evans side dishes and Crystal Farms cheese. Beyond the grocery aisle, Post supplies egg and potato products to restaurants and other foodservice (businesses that serve meals) clients. It also recently became a major player in pet food with brands like Rachael Ray Nutrish and Kibbles 'n Bits.
Post Consumer Brands
This is the company's largest and most well-known segment, making up nearly half of its revenue. It includes the classic Post breakfast cereals like Honey Bunches of Oats, Pebbles, and Grape-Nuts, as well as value-focused cereals from Malt-O-Meal. This division also produces Peter Pan peanut butter and a large portfolio of pet food, including brands like 9Lives and Nature's Recipe. The customers are everyday shoppers at grocery stores, supercenters, and dollar stores.
Foodservice
This segment, which accounts for about a third of the company's business, doesn't sell directly to individual shoppers. Instead, it provides food products to other businesses like restaurants, schools, and hospitals. The main products are processed eggs (liquid eggs, pre-cooked eggs) sold under brands like Papetti's and potato products. This part of the company helps food businesses save time and labor in their kitchens.
Refrigerated Retail
This part of the company focuses on foods sold in the refrigerated sections of grocery stores and makes up a smaller portion of total sales. It includes popular pre-made side dishes like mashed potatoes and macaroni and cheese under the Bob Evans brand. This segment also sells sausage, liquid egg products like Egg Beaters, and cheese under the Crystal Farms brand. These products are bought by consumers looking for convenient meal solutions.
Weetabix
This is Post's international arm, representing a smaller slice of the company's total revenue. It's primarily focused on the United Kingdom and sells popular breakfast cereals there, including the Weetabix brand, Alpen muesli, and protein-based shakes. The customers are mainly grocery shoppers in the U.K. This segment gives Post a significant presence outside of North America.
What management is betting on now
The company's strategy focuses on operating as a holding company, which means it acts like an investment firm, buying and managing a portfolio of different food businesses. A key priority is using acquisitions (buying other companies) to enter new, attractive markets, like its recent major purchase of pet food brands. Management also focuses on generating strong free cash flow (cash left over after paying for operating expenses and capital expenditures, which are investments in physical assets like machinery). This cash is then used to pay down debt, buy back its own stock, or acquire more businesses.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$96.20M
FY2025 Q1
$171.40M
FY2025 Q2
$70.20M
FY2025 Q3
$94.90M
FY2025 Q4
$151.60M
FY2026 Q1
$119.30M
FY2026 Q2
$151.00M
FY2026 Q3
$131.20M
Revenue
$1.95B
Net income
$63.40M
Diluted EPS
1.29
Operating cash flow
$213.30M
Free cash flow
$131.20M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.04B
Net income
$81.90M
Diluted EPS
1.56
Operating cash flow
$242.30M
Free cash flow
$151.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.17B
Net income
$96.80M
Diluted EPS
1.71
Operating cash flow
$235.70M
Free cash flow
$119.30M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.25B
Net income
$51.00M
Diluted EPS
0.91
Operating cash flow
$301.30M
Free cash flow
$151.60M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.98B
Net income
$108.80M
Diluted EPS
1.79
Operating cash flow
$225.90M
Free cash flow
$94.90M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.95B
Net income
$62.60M
Diluted EPS
1.03
Operating cash flow
$160.70M
Free cash flow
$70.20M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.97B
Net income
$113.30M
Diluted EPS
1.78
Operating cash flow
$310.40M
Free cash flow
$171.40M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$2.01B
Net income
$81.60M
Diluted EPS
1.28
Operating cash flow
$235.40M
Free cash flow
$96.20M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $131.63 vs current price $79.40
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $97.67 (-25.8% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $131.63 a share — about 65.8% above today's price of $79.40, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Stretched
Net debt $7.4B. Interest coverage 2.3x.
Net debt
$7.37B
Interest coverage
2.29x
Post Holdings, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 2.3 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Stretched
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
POST
BASELINE
Post Holdings, Inc.
Total debt $7.63B Interest coverage 2.29x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $7.76B Interest coverage 3.23x +41% vs POST Carries about 1.4x more debt cushion than POST.
Total debt $2.58B Interest coverage 1.23x -47% vs POST Carries about 1.9x less debt cushion than POST.
Total debt $2.01B Interest coverage 4.25x +85% vs POST Carries about 1.9x more debt cushion than POST.
Total debt $1.03B Interest coverage 0.25x -89% vs POST Carries about 9.3x less debt cushion than POST.
What you should know
The case for and against POST
3 Rewards
1 Risk
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 3.1% last year.
-
Returns 8.3% on equity, ahead of 80% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 38.9% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
13.74x
Forward P/E
11.04x
P/B
1.13x
P/S
0.41x
EV/EBITDA
7.50x
PEG ratio
1.17x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
28.8%
Operating margin
10.3%
Net margin
3.5%
ROE
8.3%
ROA
4.2%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
2.47x
Current ratio
1.85x
Quick ratio
0.90x
Total debt
$7.63B
Total cash
$266.50M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$8.41B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
14.7%
EPS TTM
5.78
EPS 5Y CAGR
-23.0%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$992.60M
Free CF TTM
$488.10M
FCF margin
5.8%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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