One-glance verdict
$132.98 our estimate vs market $53.15
Wall Street consensus: $33.40 (-74.9% lower than our fair-value estimate)
60% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
CVI · NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Current price
$53.15
52-week range
$19.62 - $55.19
Market cap
$5.34B
One-glance verdict
Wall Street consensus: $33.40 (-74.9% lower than our fair-value estimate)
60% below our estimate, below the bear case
Balance sheet
Net debt $1.06B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
What this company does
CVR Energy operates in both traditional energy and agriculture. The company makes most of its money from its refining margin (the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of the gasoline and diesel it sells), and it also produces nitrogen fertilizers for farms. This mix means its business is tied to the demand for both transportation fuels and crop production.
CVR Energy has a long history, founded way back in 1906, but its current form took shape more recently. The modern public company was established in 2006 and its main business is centered in the American Mid-Continent. A key turning point was in 2012 when Icahn Enterprises, a company run by a well-known investor Carl Icahn, gained a controlling stake, which influences the company's decisions. Over the years, it has grown by acquiring other facilities, like the purchase of Rentech Nitrogen Partners in 2016 to expand its fertilizer business. The company is structured as a holding company, which is a parent company that owns other companies, in this case, its petroleum, renewables, and fertilizer operations.
Think of CVR Energy as a company that takes raw materials like crude oil and plant-based oils and turns them into products you use every day. Their main job is refining, which is like a giant, complex kitchen where they cook crude oil to separate it into different things. The most important products are transportation fuels like the gasoline for your car, diesel for trucks and trains, and jet fuel for airplanes. They also make products for farming, specifically nitrogen fertilizers that help crops grow.
This is CVR Energy's largest and original business. It owns and operates two oil refineries, one in Kansas and one in Oklahoma, which are strategically located in the middle of the country. Here, they process crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Their customers are not individual drivers, but rather retailers (like gas stations), railroad companies, and farm cooperatives who buy the fuel in large quantities. This segment's profitability is heavily influenced by 'crack spreads' (the price difference between a barrel of crude oil and the petroleum products refined from it).
Through its investment in a separate public company called CVR Partners, CVR Energy is also a major player in the fertilizer business. It has two facilities, in Kansas and Illinois, that produce nitrogen-based fertilizers. The main products are ammonia and a liquid fertilizer called urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), which are sold to agricultural customers to help grow crops like corn. This business provides a different stream of income that is tied to the farming cycle rather than just the price of oil.
This is a smaller and more recent part of the company that focuses on producing fuels from renewable sources. This segment takes feedstocks (raw materials) like soybean oil and corn oil and refines them into renewable diesel. This is different from traditional diesel because it's not made from fossil fuels. However, the company has recently decided to convert its renewable diesel unit back to processing crude oil due to unfavorable economics. This highlights the challenges and changing landscape of the renewable fuels market.
The company's leadership is currently focused on running its existing refineries and fertilizer plants as safely and reliably as possible to maximize their output. They are also looking for ways to improve their 'margin capture' (the portion of the potential profit they actually earn from refining a barrel of oil). Another key priority is a more proactive approach to finding and buying new assets to expand their business footprint. Management is also committed to disciplined 'capital allocation' (deciding how to best spend the company's money on projects and investments) to ensure long-term value for its owners.
Price history
Earnings history
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Is it cheap or expensive?
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $33.40 (-74.9% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $132.98 a share — about 150.2% above today's price of $53.15, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Net debt $1.1B. Interest coverage 1.7x.
CVR Energy, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 1.7 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 3 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Total debt $1.80B Interest coverage 1.69x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $3.43B Interest coverage 0.92x -45% vs CVI Carries about 1.8x less debt cushion than CVI.
Total debt $2.52B Interest coverage -4.46x -100% vs CVI This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with CVI.
Total debt $1.13B Interest coverage 6.19x +267% vs CVI Carries about 3.7x more debt cushion than CVI.
Total debt $2.37B Interest coverage 0.25x -85% vs CVI Carries about 6.7x less debt cushion than CVI.
Total debt $3.34B Interest coverage 4.27x +153% vs CVI Carries about 2.5x more debt cushion than CVI.
What you should know
The numbers
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Valuation
Profitability
Health
Growth
Cash flow
Dividend
Metric explainer
Debt comparison
What you should know