One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$152.91 our estimate vs market $115.00
Wall Street consensus: $122.50 (-19.9% lower than our fair-value estimate)
25% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
HF Sinclair Corporation
DINO · NYQ · Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Current price
$115.00
52-week range
$45.71 - $129.37
Market cap
$19.71B
Balance sheet
Watch
4.27x Stretched
Net debt $28.00M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 29.6% last year.
- Reward Returns 33.2% on equity, ahead of 16% of its peers.
- Risk Forward P/E (6.9x) is higher than trailing (5.9x) - earnings are expected to drop.
- Risk Net debt grew 15.3% over 3 years.
What this company does
HF Sinclair Corporation
HF Sinclair (DINO) is a company that refines oil and makes fuels like gasoline and diesel, as well as renewable diesel which is a greener fuel option. Most of their money comes from selling these fuels, which matters because it shows how much demand there is for energy and how well they can meet that demand. They also make and sell lubricants and asphalt, and transport oil and gas through their pipelines, diversifying how they earn money.
How the company got here
The story of HF Sinclair (DINO) is a tale of two companies merging, each with a long history in the energy sector. Sinclair Oil, founded in 1916, became famous for its iconic green dinosaur mascot, "Dino," and built a recognizable brand in the gasoline market. HollyFrontier, on the other hand, was a more operationally focused independent refiner with roots stretching back to the mid-20th century. Through a series of strategic acquisitions and mergers, including Holly Corporation merging with Frontier Oil in 2011 to form HollyFrontier, and HollyFrontier's acquisition of Petro-Canada Lubricants in 2017, the company expanded its refining and specialty products capabilities. The current HF Sinclair Corporation was officially formed in March 2022, when HollyFrontier combined its downstream businesses with Sinclair Oil, creating a larger entity that blends a well-known consumer brand with a robust network of refineries and logistics assets. This merger aimed to create a more integrated downstream energy company.
What it actually does
HF Sinclair is an energy company that produces and sells a variety of products derived from petroleum and renewable sources. Think of them as a large-scale producer of the fuels that power cars, trucks, and planes, as well as other specialized products. They operate refineries that turn crude oil into gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel. They also produce renewable diesel, which is a cleaner-burning fuel alternative. Beyond fuels, HF Sinclair makes lubricants, which are essential for keeping engines and machinery running smoothly, and various specialty chemicals and asphalt products used in construction and other industries.
Refining
This is the core of HF Sinclair's business, where they take crude oil and process it in their refineries to create essential fuels. They operate several refineries across the United States, including locations in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah. These facilities transform raw petroleum into gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel, which are then distributed and sold. The refining segment is a major contributor to the company's overall revenue, as these fuels are in high demand for transportation and other industrial uses.
Renewables
In this segment, HF Sinclair focuses on producing renewable diesel, a type of fuel made from sources like vegetable oils or animal fats instead of traditional crude oil. This aligns with the growing demand for more environmentally friendly energy options. The company operates specific facilities dedicated to producing this renewable fuel. While it may represent a smaller portion of the company's overall business compared to traditional refining, the renewables segment is a key area for future growth and adaptation to changing energy landscapes.
Marketing
This part of HF Sinclair's business is all about getting their fuel products to consumers and businesses. They supply fuel to a large network of branded gas stations, most notably under the familiar Sinclair brand, which includes company-owned stations and independently licensed locations. This segment also involves other marketing activities to promote and sell their fuel products. Essentially, it's how HF Sinclair connects its refined products to the end-users, ensuring their gasoline and diesel reach the pumps.
Lubricants & Specialties
This segment is where HF Sinclair produces a range of specialized products beyond basic fuels. They are a significant producer of white oils, which are highly purified oils used in pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food processing. They also manufacture various types of base oils and finished lubricants that are crucial for the smooth operation of engines and industrial machinery across many sectors, from automotive to heavy industry. This business line also includes specialty chemicals and asphalt products, adding further diversity to their product offerings.
Midstream
The Midstream segment of HF Sinclair involves the transportation, storage, and handling of crude oil and refined petroleum products. Think of this as the pipeline and logistics arm of the company. They own and operate pipelines, terminals, and storage facilities that are essential for moving raw materials to refineries and finished products to markets. This infrastructure is critical for ensuring a steady and efficient supply chain, supporting both their own refining operations and serving other players in the petroleum industry.
What management is betting on now
HF Sinclair's management is focused on optimizing its existing operations while strategically positioning the company for the future of energy. A key priority is maximizing profitability from their refining business, especially when fuel prices are favorable. Simultaneously, they are investing in and refining their renewable diesel production to ensure it remains competitive and profitable. Management is also committed to disciplined financial management, balancing shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks with strategic investments and debt management. A significant part of their long-term strategy involves exploring opportunities in areas like Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to address future energy demands and environmental considerations. They aim to create two focused businesses by potentially separating their Lubricants & Specialties segment, allowing each to pursue its own growth strategies with greater flexibility.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q4
$-313.47M
FY2025 Q1
$-175.00M
FY2025 Q2
$476.00M
FY2025 Q3
$688.00M
FY2025 Q4
$-123.00M
FY2026 Q1
$355.00M
FY2026 Q2
$1.39B
FY2026 Q3
$1.65B
Revenue
$10.86B
Net income
$2.02B
Diluted EPS
11.38
Operating cash flow
$1.78B
Free cash flow
$1.65B
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$10.39B
Net income
$892.00M
Diluted EPS
4.93
Operating cash flow
$1.51B
Free cash flow
$1.39B
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$7.12B
Net income
$648.00M
Diluted EPS
3.56
Operating cash flow
$457.00M
Free cash flow
$355.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$6.46B
Net income
$-28.00M
Diluted EPS
-0.15
Operating cash flow
$8.00M
Free cash flow
$-123.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$7.25B
Net income
$403.00M
Diluted EPS
2.15
Operating cash flow
$809.00M
Free cash flow
$688.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$6.78B
Net income
$208.00M
Diluted EPS
1.10
Operating cash flow
$587.00M
Free cash flow
$476.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$6.37B
Net income
$-4.00M
Diluted EPS
-0.02
Operating cash flow
$-89.00M
Free cash flow
$-175.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$28.58B
Net income
$-213.51M
Diluted EPS
-1.05
Operating cash flow
$-140.39M
Free cash flow
$-313.47M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $152.91 vs current price $115.00
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $122.50 (-19.9% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $152.91 a share — about 33.0% above today's price of $115.00, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Watch
Net debt $28.0M. Interest coverage 4.3x.
Net debt
$28.00M
Interest coverage
4.27x
HF Sinclair Corporation's profit covers its interest bill about 4.3 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Watch
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
DINO
BASELINE
HF Sinclair Corporation
Total debt $3.36B Interest coverage 4.27x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $2.70B Interest coverage -4.46x -100% vs DINO This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with DINO.
Total debt $3.43B Interest coverage 0.92x -78% vs DINO Carries about 4.6x less debt cushion than DINO.
Total debt $1.80B Interest coverage 1.69x -61% vs DINO Carries about 2.5x less debt cushion than DINO.
Total debt $11.00B Interest coverage 7.76x +82% vs DINO Carries about 1.8x more debt cushion than DINO.
Total debt $34.29B Interest coverage 4.08x -4% vs DINO Has roughly the same debt cushion as DINO.
What you should know
The case for and against DINO
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 29.6% last year.
-
Returns 33.2% on equity, ahead of 16% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 5/10 years.
Risks
-
Forward P/E (6.9x) is higher than trailing (5.9x) - earnings are expected to drop.
-
Net debt grew 15.3% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
5.86x
Forward P/E
6.88x
P/B
1.70x
P/S
0.57x
EV/EBITDA
3.65x
PEG ratio
1.19x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
18.0%
Operating margin
25.1%
Net margin
10.1%
ROE
33.2%
ROA
15.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.29x
Current ratio
2.27x
Quick ratio
1.38x
Total debt
$3.36B
Total cash
$3.33B
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$34.83B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
9.9%
EPS TTM
19.62
EPS 5Y CAGR
-40.0%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$3.76B
Free CF TTM
$866.00M
FCF margin
2.5%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
1.9%
Payout ratio
10.3%
Last ex-div date
2026-11-12