One-glance verdict
$5.87 our estimate vs market $27.92
Wall Street consensus: $29.83 (408.4% higher than our fair-value estimate)
376% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
RXO · NYQ · Industrials · Trucking
Current price
$27.92
52-week range
$10.43 - $29.90
Market cap
$4.61B
One-glance verdict
Wall Street consensus: $29.83 (408.4% higher than our fair-value estimate)
376% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Balance sheet
Net debt $702.00M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
What this company does
RXO is a company that helps move goods for other businesses using trucks, ships, and planes. Their main money comes from charging companies for these shipping services. This is important because it means they are a key part of how products get from where they are made to where people buy them, often called the supply chain (the network of businesses involved in getting a product to the customer).
1. How the company got here RXO, Inc. was established as an independent, publicly traded company in November 2022, following its spin-off from XPO, Inc.. Prior to becoming its own entity, the businesses that now comprise RXO were developed and scaled within XPO Logistics, a major transportation and logistics firm founded in 2011. XPO's strategy involved aggressive acquisitions to build a large logistics enterprise, including significant growth in freight brokerage and last-mile delivery services. The spin-off allowed RXO to focus on its asset-light transportation services, providing investors with a clearer view of its financial performance separate from XPO's other operations. 2. What it actually does RXO is a technology-enabled company that provides freight brokerage and transportation solutions. Essentially, it acts as a middleman, connecting businesses that need to ship goods (shippers) with trucking companies that have available capacity (carriers). RXO uses its proprietary technology platform, RXO Connect, to automate and streamline the process of matching loads with trucks, providing real-time visibility and data-driven decision-making tools for both shippers and carriers. The company operates primarily in North America, serving a wide range of industries including retail, e-commerce, manufacturing, and food and beverage. 3. Truck Brokerage This is RXO's largest business segment, accounting for the majority of its revenue, estimated at around 70-80%. In truck brokerage, RXO connects shippers with third-party carriers to transport goods. This involves finding the right truck for a specific load, negotiating rates, and managing the shipment from pickup to delivery. RXO leverages its technology to efficiently match available trucks with freight, aiming to provide cost-effective and reliable transportation solutions for its clients. The acquisition of Coyote Logistics in 2024 significantly boosted this segment's revenue. 4. Last Mile Services This segment represents about 12-20% of RXO's revenue and focuses on the final leg of delivery, often for heavy or bulky items. RXO provides delivery and installation services for products like appliances, furniture, and fitness equipment directly to consumers' homes. This is a critical service for retailers and e-commerce companies that need to ensure their products reach customers efficiently and in good condition, often requiring specialized handling and installation. 5. Managed Transportation Making up about 8-9% of RXO's revenue, managed transportation involves RXO taking on the responsibility of managing a shipper's entire transportation network. This is an outsourced service where RXO handles the planning, procurement, and coordination of freight movement for its clients. It's like hiring RXO to be your company's dedicated shipping department, using their expertise and technology to optimize logistics and ensure reliable delivery. 6. What management is betting on now RXO's management is focused on several key strategic priorities to drive growth and profitability. A major emphasis is on increasing automation within its truck brokerage operations through its RXO Connect platform, aiming to improve efficiency and productivity. They are also focused on expanding market share in the fragmented truck brokerage industry, partly through strategic acquisitions like Coyote Logistics. Additionally, RXO aims to grow its managed transportation and last-mile delivery services by deepening relationships with enterprise customers. The company is also investing in technology to enhance visibility and optimize load matching, believing this digital-first approach is a key differentiator in the competitive logistics market.
Price history
Earnings history
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Is it cheap or expensive?
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $29.83 (408.4% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $5.87 a share — about 79.0% below today's price of $27.92, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Net debt $702.0M. Interest coverage -0.2x.
RXO, Inc.'s profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here.
Total debt $727.00M Interest coverage -0.20x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $2.15B Interest coverage 10.96x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while RXO does not.
Total debt $151.80M Interest coverage 46.98x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while RXO does not.
Total debt $498.76M Interest coverage 9.61x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while RXO does not.
Total debt $2.61B Interest coverage 1.94x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while RXO does not.
Total debt $1.45B Interest coverage 11.50x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while RXO does not.
What you should know
The numbers
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Valuation
Profitability
Health
Growth
Cash flow
Dividend
Metric explainer
Debt comparison
What you should know