One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$22.40 our estimate vs market $17.63
21% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited
NCEW · NCM · Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Current price
$17.63
52-week range
$2.80 - $20.83
Market cap
$56.42M
Balance sheet
Distressed
-181.61x Concerning
Net debt $1.56M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
1 Reward
3 Risks
1 rewards · 3 risks
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
- Risk Return on equity was -146.2% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
- Risk Net debt grew 44.1% over 3 years.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 11.2% to -1.8% over 3 years.
What this company does
New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited
New Century Logistics acts like a travel agent for products, arranging for goods to be shipped by air and sea from its base in Hong Kong. The company earns money by managing steps in the supply chain (the entire journey a product takes from factory to customer), such as booking cargo space and handling customs paperwork. Because they operate in a major global trade hub, their success is closely tied to the amount of international shipping and commerce.
How the company got here
New Century Logistics was founded in Hong Kong in 2002 to help businesses ship goods internationally. The company started by focusing on freight forwarding, which is like being a travel agent for cargo, arranging transportation by air and sea. Over the years, it has grown by building a network of partners in different countries to handle shipments. In 2019, a holding company (a parent company that owns other companies' stock) was established in the British Virgin Islands, and it now owns the Hong Kong operations. This structure helps the company manage its business across different regions.
What it actually does
Think of New Century Logistics as a personal assistant for a company's products. When a business needs to send items from one country to another, New Century handles all the steps to get them there. This includes booking space on airplanes or ships, picking up the cargo, and preparing all the necessary paperwork for customs (the government agency that controls goods coming into a country). They also offer services like packaging items securely on pallets and screening cargo for security before it goes on a plane.
Freight Forwarding Services
This is the main way the company makes money, acting as a middleman between businesses that need to ship goods and the transportation companies like airlines and shipping lines. They don't own the planes or ships themselves but buy cargo space from carriers to sell to their customers. A significant portion of this business comes from shipping products by air to North America, Europe, and other parts of Asia. This segment is the core of their business and generates most of their revenue (the total money a company brings in from sales).
Ancillary Logistics Services
This part of the business provides extra services that support the main shipping operations. This includes warehousing (storing goods for clients), inventory management (keeping track of what's in the warehouse), and distribution services like picking, packing, and labeling products for delivery. They also offer security X-ray screening for cargo and handle gate charges (fees for moving containers in and out of a port). These services provide an additional, smaller stream of income and help make their main freight forwarding business more comprehensive.
What management is betting on now
The company's leadership is focused on expanding its global reach and forming strategic partnerships. They recently signed an agreement with Silk Way Airlines to improve their air cargo services, especially for e-commerce (shopping online) and high-end manufacturing businesses. They are also looking to acquire other logistics companies to grow their presence in Asia and build a more extensive global network. The goal is to become a more comprehensive logistics provider that can handle all aspects of a customer's supply chain (the entire process of making and selling goods, from getting raw materials to delivering the final product to customers).
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Revenue
$44.08M
Net income
$-10.67M
Diluted EPS
-3.71
Operating cash flow
$-3.42M
Free cash flow
$-3.47M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$52.18M
Net income
$220.64K
Diluted EPS
0.01
Operating cash flow
$1.43M
Free cash flow
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Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $22.40 vs current price $17.63
Our most-likely fair value is $22.40 a share — about 27.0% above today's price of $17.63, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $1.6M. Interest coverage -181.6x.
Net debt
$1.56M
Interest coverage
-181.61x
New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited's profit covers its interest bill about 0.0 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
NCEW
BASELINE
New Century Logistics (BVI) Limited
Total debt $3.47M Interest coverage -181.61x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $80.28M Interest coverage 7.95x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while NCEW does not.
Total debt $93.12M Interest coverage 6.17x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while NCEW does not.
Total debt $4.93M Interest coverage -20.72x Neither company has much profit cushion over interest right now.
Total debt $2.11B Interest coverage 0.20x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while NCEW does not.
Total debt $1.97B Interest coverage 10.96x This peer still has a real interest-payment cushion, while NCEW does not.
What you should know
The case for and against NCEW
1 Reward
3 Risks
Rewards
-
Free cash flow was positive in 2/10 years.
Risks
-
Return on equity was -146.2% last year — the company lost money on shareholders' equity.
-
Net debt grew 44.1% over 3 years.
-
Operating margin compressed from 11.2% to -1.8% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
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Forward P/E
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P/B
11.35x
P/S
1.10x
EV/EBITDA
-6.08x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
0.3%
Operating margin
-1.8%
Net margin
-17.8%
ROE
-146.2%
ROA
-45.7%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.71x
Current ratio
1.56x
Quick ratio
1.51x
Total debt
$3.47M
Total cash
$1.91M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$207.52M
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-16.3%
EPS TTM
-3.09
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$2.33M
Free CF TTM
$-3.47M
FCF margin
-1.7%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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