One-glance verdict
Overvalued
$73.91 our estimate vs market $119.40
Wall Street consensus: $147.75 (99.9% higher than our fair-value estimate)
62% above our estimate, beyond the bull case
Fundamentals snapshot
The Timken Company
TKR · NYQ · Industrials · Tools & Accessories
Current price
$119.40
52-week range
$70.57 - $146.37
Market cap
$8.27B
Balance sheet
Watch
5.13x Adequate
Net debt $1.80B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 3.9% last year.
- Reward Returns 8.5% on equity, ahead of 50% of its peers.
- Risk Stock trades 107.7% above its 5-year average P/E.
- Risk Operating margin compressed from 14.5% to 13.0% over 3 years.
What this company does
The Timken Company
The Timken Company makes highly specialized parts like bearings (components that help machines spin smoothly) and other industrial motion products like gears, chains, and belts. They sell these critical components to a wide range of customers who build and operate heavy equipment, from wind turbines and farm tractors to airplanes and trains. Because Timken's parts are essential for so many different sectors, the company's performance can often reflect the general health of the industrial economy.
How the company got here
The Timken Company was founded in 1899 by Henry Timken, who invented and patented an improved tapered roller bearing designed to reduce friction in wagons. The company moved to Canton, Ohio, in 1901 to be closer to the growing automotive industry, which quickly became a major customer. To ensure a steady supply of high-quality steel for its bearings, Timken began producing its own steel in 1916, a move that helped it expand into new industrial markets. Over the decades, the company grew by expanding globally and acquiring other companies, including its competitor The Torrington Company in 2003, which significantly increased its size and market position.
What it actually does
Timken is an engineering company that creates products to help manage friction and allow machinery to move more efficiently and reliably. Think of the wheels on a train, the gears in a giant wind turbine, or the moving parts in a factory robot; Timken makes the critical components, like bearings and gear drives, that allow this equipment to operate smoothly under heavy loads. They sell these highly engineered parts and related services to other businesses that build and maintain equipment across a wide range of industries, from aerospace to agriculture.
Engineered Bearings
This is Timken's original and largest business, making up the majority of its sales. This segment designs and manufactures a huge variety of bearings, which are essential parts in almost anything that rotates, designed to reduce friction between moving parts. Customers in industries like wind energy, aerospace, and automotive buy these specialized components to make their equipment last longer and run more efficiently. For example, their bearings are used in the wheel hubs of large trucks and in the massive turbines that generate wind power.
Industrial Motion
This part of the company sells a broader range of products that help industrial machinery operate, representing a significant and growing portion of the business. This includes items like gear drives, automatic lubrication systems, belts, and chains that are all crucial for power transmission (getting power from an engine to the part that does the work). For instance, a food processing plant might buy their enclosed gear drives for a conveyor system, or a construction company might use their automatic lubricators on heavy equipment to reduce maintenance. This segment has grown through acquisitions and provides a wider set of solutions to industrial customers.
What management is betting on now
The company's current strategy, called 'Elevate to Outperform,' focuses on profitable growth by concentrating on more specialized, high-value products rather than mass-market items. They are investing in attractive markets like renewable energy, automation, and aerospace, where high performance and reliability are critical. Management is also focused on operating more efficiently across its global footprint and using acquisitions to add new, complementary products to its portfolio. The goal is to increase the company's margins (the profit made on each dollar of sales) and deliver more value to customers and shareholders.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$88.20M
FY2024 Q4
$125.00M
FY2025 Q1
$23.40M
FY2025 Q2
$78.20M
FY2025 Q3
$163.80M
FY2025 Q4
$140.70M
FY2026 Q1
$500.00K
FY2026 Q2
$80.50M
Revenue
$1.26B
Net income
$28.90M
Diluted EPS
0.41
Operating cash flow
$107.10M
Free cash flow
$80.50M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.23B
Net income
$98.20M
Diluted EPS
1.40
Operating cash flow
$39.30M
Free cash flow
$500.00K
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.11B
Net income
$62.30M
Diluted EPS
0.89
Operating cash flow
$183.30M
Free cash flow
$140.70M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.16B
Net income
$69.30M
Diluted EPS
0.99
Operating cash flow
$201.10M
Free cash flow
$163.80M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.17B
Net income
$78.50M
Diluted EPS
1.12
Operating cash flow
$111.30M
Free cash flow
$78.20M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.14B
Net income
$78.30M
Diluted EPS
1.11
Operating cash flow
$58.60M
Free cash flow
$23.40M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.07B
Net income
$71.20M
Diluted EPS
1.01
Operating cash flow
$178.60M
Free cash flow
$125.00M
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Sources
Revenue
$1.13B
Net income
$81.80M
Diluted EPS
1.16
Operating cash flow
$123.20M
Free cash flow
$88.20M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $73.91 vs current price $119.40
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $147.75 (99.9% higher than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $73.91 a share — about 38.1% below today's price of $119.40, so the stock currently looks expensive (overvalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Watch
Net debt $1.8B. Interest coverage 5.1x.
Net debt
$1.80B
Interest coverage
5.13x
The Timken Company's profit covers its interest bill about 5.1 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 1 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Watch
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
TKR
BASELINE
The Timken Company
Total debt $2.20B Interest coverage 5.13x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt — Interest coverage 7.63x +49% vs TKR Carries about 1.5x more debt cushion than TKR.
Total debt $4.77B Interest coverage 1.96x -62% vs TKR Carries about 2.6x less debt cushion than TKR.
Total debt $878.10M Interest coverage 8.67x +69% vs TKR Carries about 1.7x more debt cushion than TKR.
Total debt $2.36B Interest coverage 4.19x -18% vs TKR Carries about 1.2x less debt cushion than TKR.
Total debt $9.86B Interest coverage 0.84x -84% vs TKR Carries about 6.1x less debt cushion than TKR.
What you should know
The case for and against TKR
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 3.9% last year.
-
Returns 8.5% on equity, ahead of 50% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 10/10 years.
Risks
-
Stock trades 107.7% above its 5-year average P/E.
-
Operating margin compressed from 14.5% to 13.0% over 3 years.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
32.36x
Forward P/E
16.41x
P/B
2.59x
P/S
1.74x
EV/EBITDA
12.33x
PEG ratio
1.30x
Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
30.7%
Operating margin
13.0%
Net margin
5.4%
ROE
8.5%
ROA
5.4%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
0.66x
Current ratio
3.10x
Quick ratio
1.52x
Total debt
$2.20B
Total cash
$399.10M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$4.76B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
2.6%
EPS TTM
3.69
EPS 5Y CAGR
-9.1%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$530.80M
Free CF TTM
$406.10M
FCF margin
8.5%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
1.2%
Payout ratio
38.2%
Last ex-div date
2026-08-18