One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$126.42 our estimate vs market $83.81
Wall Street consensus: $98.33 (-22.2% lower than our fair-value estimate)
34% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated
DBD · NYQ · Technology · Software - Application
Current price
$83.81
52-week range
$51.46 - $89.05
Market cap
$2.90B
Balance sheet
Stretched
2.82x Stretched
Net debt $735.00M. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
1 Risk
3 rewards · 1 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 1.3% last year.
- Reward Returns 11.0% on equity, ahead of 33% of its peers.
- Reward Free cash flow was positive in 3/10 years.
- Risk Stock trades 8.1% above its 5-year average P/E.
What this company does
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated
Diebold Nixdorf makes the ATMs for banks and the self-checkout systems for retail stores, earning money from both the sale of the machines and the ongoing software and maintenance services. This is important because as banks and shops automate to become more efficient, the company's technology is central to how people manage cash and pay for goods.
How the company got here
Diebold Nixdorf started way back in 1859 as a maker of safes and bank vaults. A key moment was the Great Chicago Fire of 1871, where hundreds of its safes protected their contents, which greatly boosted the company's reputation for security. Over many decades, it moved into making banking equipment and eventually became the largest provider of Automated Teller Machines (ATMs) in the United States. A major turning point came in 2016 when it bought a German company called Wincor Nixdorf, which expanded its business into retail technology and gave it a much larger international presence, especially in Europe. The company faced financial challenges and had to restructure its debt in 2023 to get on more stable footing.
What it actually does
You've likely used Diebold Nixdorf's products without even realizing it. The company makes the ATMs you use at the bank to get cash, as well as the self-checkout machines and the point-of-sale (the system where you pay) terminals at grocery stores and other retailers. Beyond just the physical machines, they provide the software that runs them and the services to install, maintain, and monitor them to make sure they're working correctly. Essentially, they create and manage the technology that helps you bank and shop more automatically and efficiently.
Banking
This is the company's largest business area, making up the majority of its sales. It provides banks and other financial institutions with ATMs, cash recycling machines, and other hardware you see in a bank branch. Banks pay Diebold Nixdorf not just for the machines themselves, but also for the software that runs them and for ongoing services like maintenance, security, and support to keep their ATM fleets running smoothly. A large portion of this segment's revenue is recurring (income that is likely to continue in the future), which comes from these long-term service contracts.
Retail
This part of the business focuses on technology for stores like grocery, convenience, and fashion retailers. It sells the self-checkout systems that let you scan and pay for your own items, as well as the traditional point-of-sale (POS) systems operated by cashiers. Just like with the banking side, retailers pay for the hardware, the software that manages transactions, and services to keep the systems running. This segment is smaller than the banking segment but represents a significant area of focus for the company.
What management is betting on now
The company's main focus is on growing its revenue from software and services, which tend to be more profitable than just selling hardware. They are concentrating on modernizing the large number of ATMs and checkout systems already installed with their customers around the world. After its financial restructuring, management is also emphasizing strong financial discipline, aiming to generate more free cash flow (the cash left over after paying for operating expenses and capital expenditures, which are investments in physical assets like equipment). The goal is to drive profitable growth in both its banking and retail markets by making transactions for shoppers and bank customers smoother and more connected between the physical and digital worlds.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
Revenue
$891.80M
Net income
$5.00M
Diluted EPS
0.14
Operating cash flow
$31.70M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$1.10B
Net income
$49.60M
Diluted EPS
1.32
Operating cash flow
$217.50M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$945.20M
Net income
$41.10M
Diluted EPS
1.11
Operating cash flow
$37.40M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$915.20M
Net income
$12.20M
Diluted EPS
0.33
Operating cash flow
$30.10M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$841.10M
Net income
$-8.30M
Diluted EPS
-0.22
Operating cash flow
$15.70M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$988.90M
Net income
$5.60M
Diluted EPS
0.15
Operating cash flow
$196.20M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$927.10M
Net income
$-22.40M
Diluted EPS
-0.60
Operating cash flow
$-15.50M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Revenue
$939.70M
Net income
$14.90M
Diluted EPS
0.40
Operating cash flow
$-8.00M
Free cash flow
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Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $126.42 vs current price $83.81
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $98.33 (-22.2% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $126.42 a share — about 50.8% above today's price of $83.81, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Stretched
Net debt $735.0M. Interest coverage 2.8x.
Net debt
$735.00M
Interest coverage
2.82x
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated's profit covers its interest bill about 2.8 times over. which is stronger than most peers shown here and 2 peers sit below 1x, which is the danger zone where profit does not fully cover the interest bill.
Stretched
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
DBD
BASELINE
Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated
Total debt $1.09B Interest coverage 2.82x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $2.94B Interest coverage 1.77x -37% vs DBD Carries about 1.6x less debt cushion than DBD.
Total debt $1.32B Interest coverage 0.43x -85% vs DBD Carries about 6.5x less debt cushion than DBD.
Total debt $2.70B Interest coverage 6.27x +122% vs DBD Carries about 2.2x more debt cushion than DBD.
Total debt $4.47B Interest coverage 2.40x -15% vs DBD Carries about 1.2x less debt cushion than DBD.
Total debt $433.82M Interest coverage -11.36x -100% vs DBD This peer has almost no interest-payment cushion compared with DBD.
What you should know
The case for and against DBD
3 Rewards
1 Risk
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 1.3% last year.
-
Returns 11.0% on equity, ahead of 33% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 3/10 years.
Risks
-
Stock trades 8.1% above its 5-year average P/E.
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
28.90x
Forward P/E
12.34x
P/B
2.85x
P/S
0.75x
EV/EBITDA
7.96x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
26.3%
Operating margin
6.4%
Net margin
2.8%
ROE
11.0%
ROA
5.8%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
1.07x
Current ratio
1.28x
Quick ratio
0.68x
Total debt
$1.09B
Total cash
$358.60M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$3.86B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
-0.6%
EPS TTM
2.90
EPS 5Y CAGR
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Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$316.70M
Free CF TTM
$239.00M
FCF margin
6.2%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
—
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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