One-glance verdict
Undervalued
$76.90 our estimate vs market $46.64
Wall Street consensus: $50.20 (-34.7% lower than our fair-value estimate)
39% below our estimate, below the bear case
Fundamentals snapshot
NCR Atleos Corporation
NATL · NYQ · Technology · Software - Application
Current price
$46.64
52-week range
$33.31 - $48.50
Market cap
$3.45B
Balance sheet
Distressed
1.77x Concerning
Net debt $2.51B. Interest coverage shows how many times profit covers the interest bill.
What stands out
3 Rewards
2 Risks
3 rewards · 2 risks
- Reward Revenue grew 1.5% last year.
- Reward Returns 48.5% on equity, ahead of 83% of its peers.
- Risk Net debt grew 313.0% over 3 years.
- Risk Insider ownership is only 1.3% (peer median: 1.7%).
What this company does
NCR Atleos Corporation
NCR Atleos provides banks and businesses with machines and software that let customers manage their money without talking to a person, like ATMs, and also helps companies manage their computer networks. The money mainly comes from selling and servicing these machines and services, and it matters because it helps their customers operate more efficiently and offer convenient banking options. They also make money from fees related to their ATM network, which is like a club of ATMs customers can use.
How the company got here
NCR Atleos has a long history, tracing its roots back to 1884 with the National Cash Register Company. Over the decades, it evolved and expanded its offerings in financial technology. A significant turning point was the company's separation from its parent, NCR Corporation, which was completed in October 2023. This strategic move allowed the ATM and self-service financial access business to become a standalone entity, focusing exclusively on its core strengths and paving the way for innovation in this specific area. The company's name itself, NCR Atleos, reflects this new era, combining its heritage ('NCR') with a nod to automated teller machines ('At') and the dawn of a new era ('Eos').
What it actually does
NCR Atleos is a financial technology company that specializes in providing self-service banking solutions. Essentially, it's a major player in the world of ATMs (automated teller machines) and related services. The company offers everything from the physical ATM machines and their software to installation, maintenance, and even managing the entire ATM operation for financial institutions. Think of them as the experts who ensure that when you use an ATM, it works smoothly, whether it's dispensing cash, accepting deposits, or providing other banking services.
Self-Service Banking
This is the largest part of NCR Atleos' business, making up about 62% of its revenue. It involves providing a wide range of ATM hardware, software, and services. This includes selling and maintaining ATMs, offering 'ATM as a Service' where they manage the entire ATM operation for banks, and providing multi-vendor support. Essentially, they help banks and other financial institutions offer convenient cash access and other banking functions to their customers through ATMs. This segment is crucial for ensuring people can access their money easily and securely.
Network
The Network segment is another key way NCR Atleos makes money, contributing about 30% of its revenue. This part of the business focuses on connecting consumers with financial services through networks of ATMs. A major component is the Allpoint network, which provides access to cash withdrawals and deposits for customers of various banks, credit unions, and fintech companies, often without charging extra fees (surcharge-free). This segment is about expanding access to financial services beyond traditional bank branches.
Telecommunications & Technology (T&T)
This segment, while smaller than the others, provides important managed and infrastructure services to clients in the telecommunications and technology industries. NCR Atleos offers professional, field, and remote services for modern network technologies. This can include things like setting up and maintaining complex networks for large companies, ensuring their communication systems are running smoothly. It's a service-oriented business that leverages the company's expertise in managing complex technological infrastructure.
What management is betting on now
NCR Atleos is focused on shifting its business towards more recurring revenue streams, such as transaction fees from its network, software subscriptions, and managed services. They are also heavily investing in an 'ATM as a Service' model, which means they manage the entire ATM operation for financial institutions, providing a more predictable and stable income. The company aims to leverage its large ATM network and service capabilities to drive innovation and enhance the self-service banking experience for both financial institutions and consumers.
Price history
How the share price has moved
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Earnings history
Last 8 quarters — what happened
Click any quarter to read the call summary and what the numbers say.
FY2024 Q3
$85.00M
FY2024 Q4
$62.00M
FY2025 Q1
$94.00M
FY2025 Q2
$-44.00M
FY2025 Q3
$-5.00M
FY2025 Q4
$194.00M
FY2026 Q1
$-36.00M
FY2026 Q2
$4.00M
Revenue
$1.10B
Net income
$65.00M
Diluted EPS
0.86
Operating cash flow
$30.00M
Free cash flow
$4.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.04B
Net income
$22.00M
Diluted EPS
0.29
Operating cash flow
$-9.00M
Free cash flow
$-36.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.15B
Net income
$83.00M
Diluted EPS
1.09
Operating cash flow
$231.00M
Free cash flow
$194.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.12B
Net income
$26.00M
Diluted EPS
0.34
Operating cash flow
$25.00M
Free cash flow
$-5.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.10B
Net income
$45.00M
Diluted EPS
0.60
Operating cash flow
$-23.00M
Free cash flow
$-44.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$980.00M
Net income
$17.00M
Diluted EPS
0.23
Operating cash flow
$123.00M
Free cash flow
$94.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.11B
Net income
$41.00M
Diluted EPS
0.55
Operating cash flow
$80.00M
Free cash flow
$62.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Revenue
$1.08B
Net income
$24.00M
Diluted EPS
0.32
Operating cash flow
$107.00M
Free cash flow
$85.00M
Fetching…
Sources
Is it cheap or expensive?
Fair value $76.90 vs current price $46.64
Wall Street consensus is the average analyst price target: $50.20 (-34.7% lower than our fair-value estimate).
Our most-likely fair value is $76.90 a share — about 64.9% above today's price of $46.64, so the stock currently looks cheap (undervalued).
Is it drowning in debt?
Distressed
Net debt $2.5B. Interest coverage 1.8x.
Net debt
$2.51B
Interest coverage
1.77x
NCR Atleos Corporation's profit covers its interest bill about 1.8 times over. which is weaker than most peers shown here.
Distressed
Worse cushion
Baseline
Better cushion
NATL
BASELINE
NCR Atleos Corporation
Total debt $2.94B Interest coverage 1.77x This is the baseline the peer rows are being compared against.
Total debt $1.12B Interest coverage 2.82x +60% vs NATL Carries about 1.6x more debt cushion than NATL.
Total debt $2.32B Interest coverage 6.27x +254% vs NATL Carries about 3.5x more debt cushion than NATL.
Total debt $4.56B Interest coverage 2.40x +35% vs NATL Carries about 1.4x more debt cushion than NATL.
Total debt $67.37M Interest coverage 874.43x +49,292% vs NATL Carries about 493.9x more debt cushion than NATL.
Total debt $21.26B Interest coverage 4.50x +154% vs NATL Carries about 2.5x more debt cushion than NATL.
What you should know
The case for and against NATL
3 Rewards
2 Risks
Rewards
-
Revenue grew 1.5% last year.
-
Returns 48.5% on equity, ahead of 83% of its peers.
-
Free cash flow was positive in 5/10 years.
Risks
-
Net debt grew 313.0% over 3 years.
-
Insider ownership is only 1.3% (peer median: 1.7%).
The numbers
All the key metrics, grouped by purpose
Tap any ? icon to learn what it means.
Valuation
How expensive the stock looks
P/E (TTM)
18.08x
Forward P/E
8.70x
P/B
7.42x
P/S
0.78x
EV/EBITDA
6.93x
PEG ratio
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Profitability
How much profit each dollar creates
Gross margin
25.3%
Operating margin
15.0%
Net margin
4.4%
ROE
48.5%
ROA
6.3%
Health
Liquidity and balance-sheet strength
Debt / equity
6.34x
Current ratio
1.03x
Quick ratio
0.57x
Total debt
$2.94B
Total cash
$429.00M
Growth
How the business has been compounding
Revenue TTM
$4.42B
Revenue 5Y CAGR
5.2%
EPS TTM
2.58
EPS 5Y CAGR
15.1%
Cash flow
How much cash the business throws off
Operating CF TTM
$277.00M
Free CF TTM
$239.00M
FCF margin
5.4%
Dividend
Shareholder payout
Yield
0.0%
Payout ratio
0.0%
Last ex-div date
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